The Plate Discipline stat section provides us with a lot of “underlying skill” information. Since these metrics use a denominator that grows more quickly than more traditional metrics such as strikeout and walk rates, they are more useful over small sample sizes, especially after a short season. So let’s now move on to hitter O-Swing% to learn which hitters reduced their swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone and which swung more often at such pitches. Since 2019, O-Swing% had about a -0.74 correlation with walk rate, so it’s clearly that holding back on swinging on pitches outside the zone is an excellent indicator of plate patience and current/future walk rate.

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Yesterday, I reviewed the biggest hitter Z-Contact% improvers. Today, let’s flip to the decliners.

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Let’s move along in our 2020 review of underlying skill metrics to the plate discipline rates. While the shortened season makes it difficult to evaluate many metrics, and especially counting stats, plate discipline rates don’t take as long to reach a reasonable sample size because it uses a pitch-based denominator which ends up as a larger number than most other rate denominators. From 2015 through 2019, Z-Contact% had a correlation coefficient with K% of about -0.82 when requiring a minimum of only 100 plate appearances. That’s pretty darn strong! So let’s review and discuss the Z-Contact% improvers versus 2019, that recorded at least 100 plate appearances in each season.

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed the fly ball pull percentage (FBP%) surgers versus 2019. Though the shortened 2020 season means we have far smaller samples sizes to evaluate and significantly less meaningful data, changes to batted ball type data like fly ball rates, pull rates, and fly ball pull rates, are worth noting. They could signify a real change in plate approach that could carry over to 2021. Today, let’s review the hitters whose FBP% dropped the most versus 2019.

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Since 2015, pulled fly balls have left the park 33.1%, while the HR/FB rates of balls hit to the center of the park and opposite field sat at just 8.9% and 4.4%, respectively. Clearly, if a batter is trying to hit a home run, pulling his fly balls should give him the best chance. So knowing how important pulling fly balls is to hitting home runs, let’s review the fly ball pull percentage (FBP%) surgers versus 2019. I’ll discuss the interesting and fantasy relevant names.

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A week ago, I reviewed the average fly ball distance laggards and discussed the surprising names. Today, let’s look at the decliners, those hitters who lost the most average fly ball distance (AFBD) versus 2019. There will likely be some overlap with the laggards list, so I won’t discuss the same names again. Once again, I’ll require a minimum of 10 Statcast fly balls to qualify for the list.

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A week ago, I reviewed the average fly ball distance leaders and discussed the surprising names. Today, let’s look at the surgers, those hitters who increased their average fly ball distance (AFBD) the most versus 2019. There will likely be some overlap with the leaders list, so I won’t discuss the same names again. Once again, I’ll require a minimum of 10 Statcast fly balls to qualify for the list.

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Last week, I listed and discussed the barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB) surgers versus 2019. I apparently totally forgot to review the decliners, instead moving on to average fly ball distance leaders and laggards. So let’s get back to Brls/TFB analysis and check out the biggest decliners.

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On Monday, I listed and discussed the surprises among the 2020 average fly ball distance leaders. Today, let’s do the same for the laggards.

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For obvious reasons, Statcast’s average fly ball distance correlates highly with HR/FB rate (0.64 in my calculations from 2015-2020). So let’s peruse this shortened season’s leaderboard and discuss any of the surprising names.

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