Author Archive

2025 Preview: Potential Batter HR/FB Rate Surgers & Decliners

We learned last year that Barrel% is still the most highly correlated Statcast metric with batter HR/FB rate, even more so than the newest metrics such as Blast Per Bat Contact and Fast Swing Rate. Of course, Barrel% does end up underrating extreme ground ball hitters and overrating extreme fly ball hitters, but because these hitters live in the extremes, they are the rare exceptions. To account for the fact that Barrel% is prone to being skewed by a hitter’s batted ball type distribution, let’s instead use a slightly better metric — Barrels per FB + LD percentage, or Barrels/(FB+LD).

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Impacts of the First Base Carousel

Over the last couple of weeks, there have been seven (unless I missed someone!) first basemen that have found new homes that I haven’t covered in my first base rankings or with a separate park comparison article. So let’s now review the park factor comparisons for all these hitters that have either been traded or signed with a new team.

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Kyle Tucker Moves From Space City to Windy City

There have been a flurry of trades and signings over the last week, including many involving impact fantasy players. Perhaps the most significant development was the Astros trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. It’s a pretty shocking trade considering that Tucker will be entering his age 28 season, has been a consistent 5 WAR player, and is departing a team that won the AL West. Let’s now consult the park factors to find out how the park switch might affect the left-handed hitter’s performance.

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Juan Soto Switches Boroughs

You have probably read by now that Juan Soto has agreed to a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. This isn’t some bizarro world where the Mets are actually bidding gargantuan money for the top free agent, even outbidding the typical teams competing for these names. Instead, this is the new Mets, armed with an owner who ranks as one of the richest people in the world, and is actually willing to spend the money to put a contending team on the field. Luckily for Soto, he doesn’t have to travel very far, or at all, to join his new team. After posting his highest wOBA over a full season, how might the home park switch affect the 26 year-old’s results? Let’s consult the Statcast left-handed park factors.

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Blake Snell Switches Team, Remains in Division & in California

A week ago, Blake Snell signed a massive five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers. Incredibly, that means that Snell will now play for a third team in the NL West division and remain a Californian the entire time. Has this ever happened before?! He’s got two teams in the NL West and two teams in California to join before sweeping the division and the state. Perhaps he could do it by the end of his career.

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Electing the Starting Pitcher All-Loss Team

Last week, I elected the starting pitcher all-profit team, naming the most profitable starting pitchers compared to their NFBC average auction values. Now let’s flip over to losses. Though not as exciting to review, you might take solace in knowing you owned a number of these pitchers if you ended up having a disappointing season.

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Electing the Hitter All-Loss Team

A couple of weeks ago, I elected the hitter all-profit team, naming the most profitable players at each position compared to their NFBC average auction value. Now let’s flip over to losses. Though not as exciting to review, you might take solace in knowing you owned a number of these hitters if you ended up having a disappointing season.

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Electing the Starting Pitcher All-Profit Team

Last week in honor of Election Day, I elected the hitter all-profit team, comparing NFBC average auction values (AAV) to end of seasons values earned as calculated by the FanGraphs auction calculator. Today, I’ll flip on over to starting pitchers.

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Electing the Hitter All-Profit Team

In honor of Election Day tomorrow, let’s elect the starters at each standard hitting slot that would compose an all-profit team. These are the 14 hitters that earned the most profit for their fantasy owners at each position. How many of these hitters did you own?

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March 2024 Hitter maxEV Gainers — A Review

At the beginning of April, I shared the names of nine hitters who had already increased their maxEV compared to 2023. Even after just a handful of games, each of these batters had already hit a ball harder than they did all of the previous season. So now I’m curious — was this the first sign of increased power, particularly home run power? Let’s review those names and find out if they enjoyed a HR/FB rate boost, a higher ISO, or both.

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