This year, a new projection system called OOPSY by Jordan Rosenblum joined our preseason forecasts. I decided to put it to the test by comparing its wOBA projections to those of our Depth Charts to identify the hitters it was most bullish and bearish on. With the final numbers now in the books, let’s see which system more accurately forecasted these players’ wOBA marks.
Last week, I reviewed my preseason top 40 first base rankings. There were some glaring omissions from that post for two reasons. First, there are always going to be hitters who gain eligibility at a new position that won’t be ranked there during the preseason. Second, there are usually going to be some surprise names off most radars who end up in the top 40, but failed to be ranked there. So today, let’s discuss the 12 hitters who finished among the top 40 first basemen, but were unranked.
Preseason article review season continues! Today, let’s look back on a 2025 preview post where I identified potential HR/FB rate surgers and decliners. While I used to use my own xHR/FB rate equation when I projected a player’s HR/FB rate for the upcoming season, I decided to simplify things for this exercise. Instead, I used a metric I came up with called Barrels/(FB+LD) to help me come up with a list of names on both ends of the spectrum. So with the background out of the way, let’s review how these hitters ended up performing.
During the preseason, us Rotographers focused on a position and shared tiers and rankings, updated weekly through the beginning of the season. I was tasked with first basemen, ranking 40 names and publishing the last update on March 24. Let’s now review those preseason rankings and where those players actually ended up ranking, along with their end of season dollar value earned.
I was excited about my AL-Only Tout Wars team this year on my quest to defense my 2024 championship, as I filled it with a ton of offense and a plethora of young potential pitching breakouts. This is how I usually do things, and sometimes it works out, while other times it doesn’t. This was one of the seasons where so much went wrong, but enough went right that I seemingly managed to finish far better than expected given my auction.
Now that the 2025 regular season is in the books, it’s time to review my preseason posts! Let’s start with the fan favorite, the 2025 Bold Predictions. This is always a fun one to put together and every time there’s a breakout I feel like I should have seen coming, I always feel regret if that player failed to make it into this article. Let’s see who did make it, because I surely don’t remember!
During the All-Star break, I polled you fine readers about hitters and your expectations in the second half. Specifically, the poll pitted the 10 greatest xwOBA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a higher second half wOBA and which range each group’s wOBA would fall into. Let’s now review what happened.
During the All-Star break, I polled you fine readers about starting pitchers and your expectations in the second half. Specifically, the poll pitted the 10 greatest SIERA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a lower second half ERA and which range each group’s ERA would fall into. Let’s now review what happened.
Often times, a lesser known hitter makes a name for himself during the postseason over small sample heroics and is then subsequently hyped to oblivion the following season. As you might guess, these hitters sometimes end up overvalued and disappoint their new owners. Remember Randy Arozarena back in 2020?! In 86 PAs, he posted an absurd .515 wOBA, driven by a 52.6% HR/FB rate (not a typo) and .455 ISO, resulting in 10 home runs. He certainly did enjoy a very solid fantasy season in 2021, going exactly 20/20, but was that even enough to breakeven for his owners? I guess that depended on your leaguemates, but I would imagine there were many leagues where his cost became comical.
Aside from rooting for my own teams to finish in a prize spot at the end of season, I also find myself doing a different kind of rooting. That is, I love to see players continue their offensive surges and crashes that could potentially lead to overvaluation or undervaluation in next year’s drafts and auctions. If a hitter has enjoyed a surprising surge, let that continue to ensure my leaguemates will pay through the nose for him! Likewise, if a hitter has suffered a surprising crash, the hope is there’s no turnaround before the season ends as I love to scoop up players coming off down years, as they are typically undervalued.
