2025 Preview: Potential Batter wOBA Surgers & Decliners

We know that batter wOBA has a relatively higher correlation than many other metrics. However, it isn’t even higher because there are still many factors outside a batter’s control that influence the final mark. So let’s review the hitters who both underperformed and overperformed their xwOBA marks last year. If we assume a similar level of underlying skills and performance, this makes for the quickest list of hitters who will either enjoy a wOBA surge or decline this coming season.
Name | wOBA | xwOBA | Diff |
---|---|---|---|
Juan Soto | 0.421 | 0.462 | -0.041 |
Patrick Bailey | 0.281 | 0.319 | -0.038 |
Christopher Morel | 0.280 | 0.316 | -0.036 |
J.D. Martinez | 0.318 | 0.351 | -0.033 |
Michael Harris II | 0.312 | 0.344 | -0.032 |
Maikel Garcia | 0.270 | 0.300 | -0.030 |
Michael Toglia | 0.329 | 0.358 | -0.029 |
For whatever reason, Juan Soto has been a pretty consistent xwOBA underperformer. If we ignore the short 2020 season, he has underperformed in five of six seasons, only overperforming during his 2018 debut. So while he does appear at the top of this list, I certainly wouldn’t expect a higher wOBA this year as it’s already at an elite level.
Patrick Bailey similarly underperformed his wOBA in 2023 as well, so it’s possible he’ll eventually become a perennial underperformer, but it’s too small a sample right now to say for certain. The underlying skills here are decent across the board, while he’s shown better power in the minors. The HardHit% and maxEV are above average, so it’s just a matter of his Barrel% rebounding, giving him a chance to get that HR/FB rate into double digits. It makes him an ideal cheap option as a second catcher.
Christopher Morel’s power and BABIP both plummeted last year, pushing his wOBA well below .300. While his Statcast power metrics did decline versus 2023, they still suggested better output than what he actually recorded. The Rays will be playing their home games in a minor league park this year which should prove more hitter friendly and assist with Morel’s rebound potential. Of course, he’ll still need to improve upon his batted ball distribution, which has been light on line drives and heavy on pop-ups. I think he makes an excellent target in deep leagues, especially those that use OBP instead of batting average.
It might be the end for J.D. Martinez, but his xwOBA suggests he could still hit!
Injury and meh performance made Michael Harris II a disappointment last year. The good news is his xwOBA suggests the disappointing performance may have been a complete fluke. One of the issues here is the low FB%, which is odd for a guy who clearly possesses above average power. All those grounders are obviously good for his BABIP, though his .300 mark last year was well below his previous two seasons, but bad for his home run potential. I’m not exactly enamored with the skill set as he swings and misses more than you would expect given his better than average strikeout rate, but that’s because he’s a free-swinger who swings a lot, which helps him put balls in play before getting to strike three, but also reduces his walk rate. Still, he’ll probably be a bit undervalued this season and his wOBA should rebound.
It’s embarrassing that Maikel Garcia and his .281 OBP spent the majority of his time as the Royals leadoff hitter. But hey, his xwOBA suggests that mark should have been a bit better! Most of the xwOBA underperformance came from the collapse of his BABIP, but his batted ball distribution remained fine, so that looks quite undeserved. Encouraging here is the improved strikeout rate, which might be repeatable given the mid-single digit SwStk%. This is the type of guy I always end up drafting at a price I think is cheap, but then forget that he’s a weak hitter and that could cost him a starting job. So keep that in mind when you draft these speedy guys who are far more valuable in fantasy as the risk of becoming a bench bat is high.
Michael Toglia was a pleasant surprise last year, going 25-10 in just 458 PAs. The kneejerk reaction may have been that he lucked into a strong fantasy showing, but his xwOBA actually suggests the opposite — he was unlucky! Yes, he strikes out a lot, but he’s got serious power and calls the most hitter friendly park home. While the high FB% does hamper his BABIP potential, he offsets it with a low IFFB%, plus Coors Field sports the highest hit factor among all parks. He probably won’t actually contribute in batting average, but could be a positive everywhere else.
Name | wOBA | xwOBA | Diff |
---|---|---|---|
Daulton Varsho | 0.304 | 0.261 | 0.043 |
Connor Wong | 0.330 | 0.288 | 0.042 |
Ezequiel Tovar | 0.324 | 0.289 | 0.035 |
José Ramírez | 0.364 | 0.329 | 0.035 |
Trea Turner | 0.349 | 0.318 | 0.031 |
Jose Altuve | 0.344 | 0.316 | 0.028 |
Who would have guessed that even with just a .304 wOBA, Daulton Varsho actually overperformed! He hasn’t been a consistent overperformer, so this is quite concerning. It appears that most of the overperformance was due to his .194 ISO. His HardHit% reached a career low, while his Barrel% fell to its lowest since his cup of coffee in 2020. Those marks typically wouldn’t result in a near-.200 ISO. The good news is that he’s still just 28, so it’s likely his skills rebound to stave off any further wOBA regression. But he’s also coming off shoulder surgery, and you never know how that’s going to affect power. So as much as he might appear to be a rebound candidate, he remains a risk this season.
According to xwOBA, Connor Wong was just marginally better offensively last year than in 2023, but his wOBA surged. It’s rather surprising that he has managed to post a .340+ BABIP the last two years, especially last year with a high IFFB%. You might assume he has greatly benefited from his home park’s hit inflating ways with its quirky dimensions and Green Monster. His career .352 BABIP at home does confirm that, but he has also posted a .334 mark on the road! So it hasn’t just been Fenway inflating his BABIP. I wouldn’t count on that elevated mark continuing. You also have to wonder if he could repeat the vastly improved strikeout rate, so his batting average could be in great danger if both his strikeout rate rises and BABIP declines.
Ezequiel Tovar was an obvious sleeper pick last year and he delivered. But was it deserved? His xwOBA actually declined slightly compared to 2023! Yet, his wOBA spiked. He suddenly became an extreme fly ball hitter, which really propped up his power and home run total. But instead of taking a BABIP hit, his mark actually increased as well. Surprisingly, it wasn’t even Coors behind the improved results, as his home wOBA was only slightly higher than his road mark last year. I don’t see a total collapse here, but I think there are a bunch of red flags, especially given his poor plate discipline. On the other hand, he’s only 23, so it’s not hard to believe he could improve his skills and post a skills-backed wOBA improvement.
José Ramírez hasn’t consistently overperformed his xwOBA, but has done so a little more frequently than not. The last time he overperformed like this was back in 2022 and he regressed a bit the next year. I’m guessing Statcast isn’t thrilled with his HardHit% and Barrel%, both of which are slightly above average, and typically wouldn’t result in a gaudy .258 ISO. Then again, he has rarely been a big HardHit% or Barrel% guy, but pulling his flies at a higher rate than average has likely helped him elevate his results above what you would expect. At age 32 now and coming off a career-tying home run total, and career highs in stolen bases and runs scored, I would be cautious paying the going rate here.
It looked like a typical Trea Turner season, but he actually just posted the lowest xwOBA of his career. Of course, he has overperformed his xwOBA in most of his seasons so he probably does something or some things not being captured in the equation. That said, his HardHit% did fall to its lowest since 2018, while his Barrel% was lowest since 2019. Not big drops, but little things that make you a little less confident. His LD% also fell to well below average and his lowest since 2017, so you have to wonder how he still managed a .331 BABIP, just below his career average. He appears slightly riskier than normal.
Jose Altuve has been the king of overperforming his wOBA so this past season was nothing new for him. However, this was his lowest xwOBA since 2015. Much of the overperformance this year was actually on the batting average side, but with the second highest LD% of his career and a nice improvement in IFFB% back to single digits, it doesn’t seem obvious that his .337 BABIP was a bit fortunate. Bottom line is that he’s 34, his SwStk% jumped into double digits for the first time in his career, his stolen base success rate declined, while his walk rate dropped to his lowest since 2015. So there are a number of warning signs of age to be aware of when considering drafting him or going the extra buck.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
I would be curious to see the relationship between wOBA and speed. Anecdotally, it seems like many wOBA underperformers are either slow, old, or coming off injury.
There’s definitely a relationship — faster = higher wOBA. Don’t recall how strong, but it def is better to be faster. Anyway, I know Statcast does incorporate speed, but I sometimes feel like it doesn’t do so enough.