This is my favorite pre-season post of the year. Nothing is more enjoyable than coming up with wacky, out on a limb predictions that just may come true. Of course, all of my bold predictions have some sort of statistical basis, so you won’t be seeing anything like “Juan Pierre hits 20 home runs”. After reading my list and nodding your head in agreement or ridiculing my crazy thoughts, feel free to share your own off the wall predictions in the comments section.

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Ahh, one of the most debated topics in fantasy baseballdom. Does position scarcity exist or is it just a myth? Hell, what the heck do you even mean by position scarcity to begin with? Earlier in the week, RotoGraphs’ Howard Bender published his thoughts on the issue using catchers as the focal point. He concluded that it was unwise to spend an early round pick on a catcher because you could get better production elsewhere. I disagree with this opinion and feel that the top catcher is absolutely worth the price he is paid. Here’s why…

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Yesterday afternoon, it was reported that everyone’s favorite sleeper Brandon Morrow would start the season on the disabled list due to right forearm inflammation. Those loud arrrghhs you heard at that time were the collective reactions of the fantasy owners who drafted him. Sure, it was noted that the Blue Jays would backdate his DL-stint to ensure he only misses one start, but this is quite concerning. As you may or may not know, forearm tightness, or inflammation in this case, is often a precursor to the dreaded Tommy John surgery. So Morrow owners should prepare for the worst. In the meantime, former Braves prospect Jo-Jo Reyes, who was acquired along with Yunel Escobar last season, was named to the rotation as Morrow’s replacement. Does he have any potential to generate at least some AL-Only league value?

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During the course of the season, I will be discussing players owned in 10% or fewer of leagues on CBS Sports. Hopefully these targets will go on to have career-rest-of-the-seasons and you will thank me endlessly for sharing my wisdom. I apologize in advance if any players I mention are not available in your particular league, as I am not quite all-knowing, but working on reaching that level in due time. And off we go…

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I have always been tempted to draft as cheap a pitching staff as possible, though I have never used this strategy before in a mock draft or a real one. In an auction, this strategy is simply called the $9 pitching staff. In a snake draft, you would draft all your hitters in rounds 1-14 and then fill out your pitching staff over the remaining 9 rounds. Unfortunately, the $9 pitching staff auction strategy will put you at a severe disadvantage versus your competitors who are all likely spending at least $55 more than you on pitching. However, a straight draft puts teams on a much more even playing field, so although your rotation would likely be worse than the rest of your leaguemates’, the difference would not be as large as it would be in an auction league. So let us use actual average draft position data from CBS Sports leagues to construct a cheap pitching staff.

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Remember him? If not, it may be because he has been on the DL more days than he has been off it (note: this may or may not be true) since his Major League Debut in 2005. In fact, if you thought Rich Harden was injury prone, Brandon McCarthy actually has him beat. According to the Baseball Injury Tool, McCarthy has dealt with injury issues on 14 different occasions since 2006, while Harden only suffered through 13 during that same time span. So now that we have established just how much McCarthy’s career has been ruined by injuries so far, let me discuss why he makes for a great gamble for your lonely dollar in an AL-Only auction.

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You guys probably know the drill by now. We RotoGraphers stayed up all night with calculators in hand, glasses firmly in place, and computers in front of us, as we sat comfortably in David Appelman’s mom’s basement. We brainstormed until the only images in our head were C.C. Sabathia and Bartolo Colon together at last on the buffet line. Today I unveil the results of this night to remember and bring to you our American League starting pitcher rankings. I will also be your AL SP tour guide for the rest of the season.

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“He’s a prime sleeper candidate”. “He has great breakout potential”. “He has huge upside this season”. Blah blah blah. Sometimes I get bored reading about all the potential sleepers and breakouts for the coming season. Too much optimism. I need some balance in my life. Avoiding the season’s busts, or in this case, the pitchers who will not earn their cost, may be just as important as unearthing the surprise stars.

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Earlier this morning, Zach Sanders unveiled the RotoGraphs staff’s NL starting pitcher rankings. The bottom half of those rankings consist of a mix of mediocre veterans, youngsters without a guaranteed spot in the rotation and rookies that fantasy owners are typically advised to avoid, regardless of that pitcher’s skill set. One of the most intriguing names in that bottom tier is Mike Minor.

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Chris Coghlan took the league by storm in 2009, posting a .372 wOBA and earning NL Rookie of the Year honors. Though his performance line was boosted by a rather high .365 BABIP, his skills were right in line with what he had been doing down on the farm. As such, expectations were high for a solid sophomore season, but unfortunately things did not pan out, as he finished with a disappointing .322 wOBA and his season ended prematurely after a knee injury.

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