Author Archive: Mike Podhorzer

As we near season’s end, it is time to start looking toward 2012 and to determine which players may see a performance spike, and therefore be a target in your fantasy drafts. As I have mentioned many times in the past, SwStk% is one of my favorite advanced metrics to analyze for pitchers. It correlates highly with a pitcher’s strikeout rate, and the relationship is intuitive to both stats freaks and stats haters alike. Here are three pitchers whose SwStk% suggest better strikeout rates could be in their futures.

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Nearly three months into the season, I looked at three American League starting pitcher disappointments and wondered if we should expect them to experience better days ahead. The Major League ERA at the time was just 3.88, the first time it was below 4.00 since 1992. It has risen since, but barely, as it still sits at just 3.93. That means the busts are hurting your fantasy team even more than usual. So let’s take a look at how these three pitchers have fared since and what we could expect in 2012.

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With the season swiftly coming to a close, I thought I would take a look back at some of my deep league waiver wire recommendations from early in the season. This exercise is not to gloat, but to examine the players and if their performance this year changes their future outlook and role for next season. Upon reviewing my recs, most did not do much, but two guys really stood out: Ryan Roberts and Chris Heisey.

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Last year’s amazing first half and full season performance supported by luck metrics that were unsustainable caused Ubaldo Jimenez to be overvalued in 2011 drafts. Of course, although many expected some regression, likely no one could have predicted an ERA of nearly 4.50 and a mid-season trade into the American League. For some context, let’s compare his 2011 skills with another skill set:

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Today I will take a look at another pitcher who given his current statistics, will likely be undervalued in 2012. Of course, there’s always the chance our pitcher in the spotlight finishes off the season with shutouts, but we’ll assume his stats change little through season’s end.

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Only two weeks left in the regular season, this is nearly your last chance to go diving into the free agent pool and attempt to uncover some treasures.

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The 2011 season has not even ended yet, but I am already excited by the variety of players I may potentially roster next year at a discount. Many owners come into their drafts with a target list of players that they are hoping to acquire. To be honest, I do not understand this at all for single-season leaguers. All I am interested in is value and do not really care what name is attached to my projected stats and resulting valuation. Without getting further off topic, I did a quick sort by SIERA and was surprised to see Jonathon Niese’s name ranked 18th, right behind Tim Lincecum.

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Trading is an important part of most fantasy leagues. With the exception of a few leagues, most notably NFBC formats, owners are free to swap players with their fellow league mates throughout the season until some imposed trading deadline. Many fantasy owners believe that skillful trading, as one component of in-season roster management, is the biggest factor of success. But after passing the deadline in my one league that I commish, I am left wondering: is trading dead?

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So, after missing last month due to a wild road trip in bison land, I am back with an updated set of rankings for your perusal. I don’t think I ever clarified how I decide to move players or maintain rankings, but it is basically strictly looking forward. If you drafted now for the rest of the year, what should the order be? I don’t care what a pitcher’s current ERA is, to me that’s just some random number the ball landed on on a roulette wheel. The skills and projected future skills are much more important and this philosophy is reflected in the rankings.

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This week’s hidden gems for you deep leaguers still in the hunt for the cash include a pair of young pitchers. Just what you want to hang your season on, huh?

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