I’m baaaack. After embarking on a week and a half long road trip through Montana, Wyoming and South Dakota, I was mostly deprived of keeping up with baseball, and the chances I did have to follow the news, I chose not to take advantage of. Blasphemy! I know, I know. Although my one (yes, to everyone’s surprise, I am only in one league this year) fantasy team has little chance at a money finish, I still did not want to have any distractions during this adventure-filled vacation. Of course, I probably picked the worst possible time to take this trip, as the crazy trading deadline was smack in the middle of it. As you could imagine, upon returning home and trying to figure out how to catch up on everything I missed, my head was spinning.

Ubaldo Jimenez is an Indian??? Huh??? That was the first thing I found out and my exact reaction. I later began my attempt at determining the best method to learn of all the baseball happenings, while not spending hours upon hours on doing so. Here is how I did it…

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On Saturday, I looked at the top five pitchers whose K% suggested their K/9 rates should be higher. Given the different denominators between the two metrics, it came as no surprise that pitchers who have benefited from good fortune found themselves toward the top of the list as they had fewer opportunities to punch hitters out. Today I look at the other side of the coin, those pitchers whose K/9 marks are higher than their K% would suggest.

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First, another fist pump for David Appelman’s addition of K% to the site. No longer do I have to surf on over to an enemy site to get this information. As was noted in some of the comments on the announcement post, K/9 will be lower than it should be if the pitcher has benefited from some good fortune that allowed him to face fewer batters than expected. So, assuming the pitcher’s luck does in fact regress, he should see his strikeout rate rise. Here are the five pitchers with the largest difference between their ranking in K% and K9.

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Danny Duffy made his Major League debut on May 18 with a tough assignment against the Texas Rangers. Not too surprisingly, he only lasted four innings after walking six batters. The 22-year old lefty was promoted after throwing 42.0 innings at Triple-A and posting strong skills including a 48/10 K:BB ratio. So far with a 4.58 ERA and 104 xFIP-, he has not embarrassed himself, but has probably been a bit of a disappointment for fans of his.

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For those deep league teams still in the hunt for the money, congratulations. Unfortunately, I cannot enjoy that same position in my own league. I do, however, have two exciting options that could potentially increase your chances of finishing in that coveted money spot.

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I am quite shocked by the lack of fanfare for Johnny Cueto’s performance thus far. This is officially the first article written about him all season on this site. With a 2.01 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 89.2 innings, he has been fantastic, at least on the surface. Below the surface of course, things get interesting.

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Even though the league ERA is at its lowest mark since 1992, fantasy teams can never have enough pitching. And because everything is relative, half the teams are still going to be below average in the category. If you find yourself in that unfortunate situation, here are three potential second half surgers from the American League.

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I have to admit, these posts are a joy. In no other article could you possibly recommend a hitter slashing .243/.305/.360 AND a rookie pitcher who allowed six runs over four innings in his Major League Debut and avoid losing your entire readership. I could do no wrong!

Juan Rivera, LAD OF | 6%

Usual lefty-mashing Marcus Thames was released yesterday and the Dodgers subsequently replaced him with Rivera. Initially, it appears he will take over that same role, only facing left-handers. This makes sense of course as in his career, he has posted a .357 wOBA against southpaws, but just a .326 mark against righties. Even this season, despite his overall struggles, he has put up a .393 wOBA against lefties, albeit in a small 55 at-bat sample. Obviously, you don’t really want Rivera if he only faces left-handers. However, Tony Gwynn, Jr. is no one’s idea of a starting left-fielder, even given his excellent defense. At age 33, it is certainly in the realm of possibility that Rivera is done. But we cannot forget he hit 25 home runs just two years ago. If he hits well out of the gate, he could easily win more playing time and provide some deep league value.

Kyle Weiland, BOS SP | 4%

This may be the first recommendation that literally throws up zeroes for the rest of the season. That is, it is very possible he does not pitch another inning for the Sox this year. But, with Jon Lester’s status up in the air, and no other clear-cut options, Weiland may stick around for a little while. He posted a strong set of skills at Triple-A this season and has seen his skills improve as he climbed the minor league ladder, which is a great sign. He has induced an above average percentage of grounders and his fastball averaged 93.1 miles per hour during his first outing. Control may be an issue, as it has not been great during his minor league career and he threw just 40.9% of his first pitches for strikes during his debut. At least he has the powerful Sox offense backing him, so he could luck into some wins even if he does have some struggles, assuming he makes it through five of course.

Sports fans love to prove their knowledge. They simply need to show that they know more than other fans, their friends and their family. Fantasy owners take that concept even further by putting money where their mouth is. Whether projecting breakouts, predicting busts or drafting minor leaguers they expect to become the next superstar, there are countless opportunities for fantasy owners to show they know their stuff. Unfortunately, for as much as we think we might know about the game and explaining player performance, there are examples every season that convince me that in fact, we don’t know jack.

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Let’s take an All-Star break look at the top five starting pitchers who are most underperforming their xFIP marks. We are still nowhere close to reaching the number of batters faced for ERA to stabilize, as research has found it to be above the 750 PA mark, which represents the high value of the interval tested. As a result, going forward xFIP has much more predictive power.

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