In a special edition of the deep league waiver wire, I identify some pitchers who are widely available and have a decent matchup next week. It’s your last chance to gain ground in wins and strikeouts, though of course you must consider the potential damage to your ERA and WHIP.
Research has shown that hitters have much more control of their BABIP marks than pitchers. As a result, true talent BABIP remains pretty stable, but does decline as a hitter ages. Looking at the leaders and laggards each year in the metric is a quick shortcut to figure out whose batting averages may decline or increase the following year. However, since these hitters may actually have a true talent level close to these levels, it might not give us the correct answer. We can instead compare a hitter’s BABIP to his previous year since hitters generally establish a baseline BABIP that they vary around each season. This is another method to help identify those who are in for a drop or jump in average. Today I’ll check in on the BABIP surgers compared to 2011. I used a minimum of 400 plate appearances last year and the “qualified” filter for this year. I have also included each hitter’s xBABIP in their respective write-ups.
On Monday, I took a look at the five pitchers whose ERAs are most below their respective SIERA marks. Today, I check in on the opposite side of the ledger, those pitchers whose ERAs are most above their SIERAs. These are the pitchers that SIERA would classify as the unluckiest, and might be undervalued in next year’s drafts.
Weekly leaguers basically have one more chance to exploit matchups to squeeze out any remaining category points available. Depending on how your league site handles the short series of games in October, it’s possible you will have another shot. If you’re desperate for pitching, here are some pitching options to consider with their next expected starts that might be there for the taking.
With just about 2 weeks left, this is your final chance to pick up some standings points and make strategic start/bench decisions based on your position in each category. If you need speed, these are your guys.
As we head into the final weeks of the season, it’s nearly time to get a jump on next year’s research. One of the first exercises worth performing is comparing a pitcher’s actual ERA with his SIERA. While in some cases there are legitimate explanations for over or underperformance of SIERA marks, for the most part, you should treat SIERA as your baseline for your next season ERA projection, rather than actual ERA. Here are the five pitchers who have outperformed their SIERA marks the most this season.
The Athletics are trotting out pitchers who simply refuse to walk opposing batters. It’s getting crazy really. In fact, every member of their current rotation with the exception of Jarrod Parker, sports a sub-2.0 walk rate! That’s pretty amazing. Two of those pitchers have pretty much come out of nowhere this year. Let’s see what we can expect next season.
It’s time for another day of deep league waiver wire gems. If you’re in need of a third baseman or corner infielder or desperate for pitching, read on!
On Saturday, I checked in on some surprising HR/FB ratio surgers and attempted to determine what we can expect from these hitters next season. Today I’ll look at the opposite end, those hitters whose HR/FB ratio have experienced a large decline. Will they be bargains in next year’s drafts or money traps?
Every season there are a handful of hitters who experience power breakouts. As much as a fantasy owner would love to take credit for predicting such a surge, it seems more like a crapshoot to me. Sure, you could use 20/20 hindsight to find clues for some of these hitters, but those same clues likely failed to lead to home run increases for many others. Let’s see if we could figure out what to expect in 2013 from three surprises from this year.
