This week I take a gander at a much hyped recent call-up, a former minor league strikeout leader and a man whose bad luck may finally be turning. It’s American League starting pitcher day, a time when we make no mention of those less exciting guys in that other league with names such as Clayton and Cole.
Today we go real deep to find you potential hidden treasure that will catapult your fantasy teams into Yoo-Hoo shower stardom. Then again, you’re all definitely in first place already, because you read RotoGraphs every day and get the best advice on the planet.
Episode 18
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. I debut a surprise game for Eno to take part in and we discuss another closer injury and a pair of rookie call-ups.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Approximately 38 min of joyous analysis.
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There have been many attempts to develop an expected pitcher strikeout percentage (xK%) formula, usually involving one of my favorite metrics SwStk%, perhaps average fastball velocity, and maybe another statistic or two. All of the regression equations did a fairly decent job, but there were always outliers, and I was beginning to see a commonality between them.
Episode 17
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor Howard Bender. We debut the Kicking Rocks Challenge and talk about a pair of youngsters.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Approximately 33 min of joyous analysis.
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Episode 16
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss a pair of surprising demotions and bullpens in disarray.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Approximately 45 min of joyous analysis.
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In his first two full seasons with the Rays, Jeremy Hellickson has perplexed the saber-nerds. How does a guy who has posted pretty weak strikeout rates, walked more batters per nine than the league average and has allowed more fly balls than grounders manage to prevent earned runs like he’s one of the best pitchers in the American League? The answer is actually pretty simple — he stranded runners at league leading rates and avoided hits on balls in play like a champ.
It’s deep league waiver wire day, which is obviously the best day of the week. Apologies to my NL-Only league friends, only American Leaguers today.
Episode 15
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We finish discussing our updated consensus rankings with the starting pitchers and outfielders. Oh, and don’t miss my Larry David impression!
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Approximately 36 min of joyous analysis.
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Yes, the sell highiest. The easiest way to identify buy low and sell high candidates among starting pitchers is to export the advanced tab of the leader board into Excel and then simply subtract the pitcher’s SIERA from his ERA. Sort and voilà, you now have your list of pitchers who are most outperforming and underperforming their SIERA marks. Of course, you shouldn’t blindly take that list as gospel, as some pitchers have proven that they can consistently post ERAs higher or lower than their SIERAs. But it’s the quickest way to generate a list of names for further analysis.
After performing this exercise, Matt Moore was not the biggest SIERA outperformer. But, given his name value and preseason draft cost, he is the one most worth shopping. He currently ranks eighth among all qualified starters in ERA outperformance, with a 4.11 SIERA versus a 2.29 ERA. While that alone should make him a sell high candidate, there are additional warning signs beneath the surface.
