Yes, the sell highiest. The easiest way to identify buy low and sell high candidates among starting pitchers is to export the advanced tab of the leader board into Excel and then simply subtract the pitcher’s SIERA from his ERA. Sort and voilà, you now have your list of pitchers who are most outperforming and underperforming their SIERA marks. Of course, you shouldn’t blindly take that list as gospel, as some pitchers have proven that they can consistently post ERAs higher or lower than their SIERAs. But it’s the quickest way to generate a list of names for further analysis.

After performing this exercise, Matt Moore was not the biggest SIERA outperformer. But, given his name value and preseason draft cost, he is the one most worth shopping. He currently ranks eighth among all qualified starters in ERA outperformance, with a 4.11 SIERA versus a 2.29 ERA. While that alone should make him a sell high candidate, there are additional warning signs beneath the surface.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s easy to make buy low and sell high calls. Anyone could compare a player’s current season ranking with his preseason and blindly advise fantasy owners to acquire or trade away said player. While that advice sometimes does have value, perhaps more beneficial is identifying players you should not attempt to buy at a discount or trade away at an assumed profit. That is why we sometimes have the “Not a Sleeper, Not a Bust” segment on The Sleeper and the Bust podcast, as we highlight players who should not be purchased at a discount (and are therefore Not a Sleeper) or sold high (and are therefore Not a Bust). So sticking with the Not a Sleeper theme, this is why I am not buying B.J. Upton.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 14
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor J.P. Breen. We discuss a headline-making call-up, a struggling first-rounder and pitchers galore..

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Approximately 39 min of joyous analysis.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Episode 13
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We continue our discussion of the updated consensus rankings, this time with the middle infielders and third base.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Approximately 42 min of joyous analysis.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Let’s take another dive into the free agent pool,
With the hopes of finding a hitter with more than one tool,
So you don’t end up looking like a fool.

You may find more of Pod’s Poems on the forthcoming PoemGraphs, where we calculate RARP (rhymes above replacement poet) and discuss the ridiculousness of haikus (really, a poem that doesn’t rhyme? that’s NOT a poem).

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday I discussed the leaders in average home run plus fly ball distance, some of which were surprises and validated the player’s early power surge. Instead of simply looking at the laggards today, which include such obvious names as Juan Pierre and Skip Schumaker, I’m just going to cherry pick some of the surprising names toward the bottom of the ranking list.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 12
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss the updated consensus rankings at catcher and shortstop and answered our first Twitter question.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Approximately 44 min of joyous analysis.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Earlier this year, I finally derived an official equation that highlighted the value batted ball distance has and its strong correlation with home runs. While we still don’t have a lot of vital information, such as how quickly batted ball distance stabilizes, it is probably still worth taking a peek at the leader board. It might very well explain some of the early home run spikes. Whether or not the hitter will continue hitting balls that far on average is unknown, but it will at least validate what has already happened.

Read the rest of this entry »

Since I develop my own player forecasts, I am always looking for better ways to use the advanced metrics to project the more basic ones. You may remember the quest Chad Young and I engaged in earlier this year to predict HR/FB ratio using batted ball distance. That didn’t go as far as I had hoped, but it did highlight the value of the batted ball distance data. When I started doing the research for my Contact% articles last week, I figured there might be a combination of plate discipline metrics, including Contact%, that does a good job of estimating a hitter’s strikeout percentage. I was right. Of course, this is nothing earth shattering, as Jeff Zimmerman reminded me that he looked at that very same concept late last season, which clearly had already escaped my brain. Since I had the data and regressions done, I decided to do a version 2.0 of formulating a hitter’s expected K%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 11
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor Ben Duronio. We discuss a plethora of pitchers coming off strong outings, along with a look at the concept of buying high.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Approximately 39 min of joyous analysis.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS