First base is a funny position. A whole bunch of them are drafted over the first couple of rounds and all of a sudden you realize it’s only round four and already nine of them are off the board. Without having filled your first base slot, panic sets in. Oh no! Don’t let me get stuck with James Loney.

The first base edition of Pod’s Picks may help you find value or learn who to avoid at their current going rate. The bullish section will only include players from my top 20, while the bearish group will only include those whose RotoGraphs consensus is in the top 20.

Read the rest of this entry »

Now that the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings have been published, it’s time for the 2014 edition of Pod’s Picks! Once again, I will be identifying the players at each position in which my rankings differ most from the consensus. This year, I have removed my rankings and recalculated the consensus rank to paint a more accurate picture of what the other three are thinking. This new consensus is what I will be comparing my ranking to.

First, I will start with catchers. The bullish section will only include players from my top 24, while the bearish group will only include those whose consensus is in the top 24.

Read the rest of this entry »

Many moons ago (actually six years to be exact), I began my fantasy baseball writing career with the Fantasy Baseball Generals. The site is long gone, but all the writers have gone on to greener pastures, including my friend Patrick DiCaprio who I broadcast the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable show with every Wednesday night. We had a loyal, albeit tiny, following and needless to say, my posts weren’t read by nearly as many people as they are here. So inspired by a reader comment, I decided to dig up a snake draft strategy primer I remembered having written, at which point I then learned that it was actually published at FBG. So this is an updated version of the step-by-step tutorial to winning your snake draft.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Thursday, I discussed the six hitters whose average fly ball and home run distance increased most from 2012. Today, I will look at the opposite side of the coin, the decliners. While the surgers held onto half of their gains the following year, the decliners held onto about 65% of their decline, as their distance rebounded by just 35% . In other words, a decline in batted ball distance is more real than a surge. Or once again, regression at work, as higher batted ball distances are simply more likely to drop.

Read the rest of this entry »

In the past, it used to be difficult to determine how legitimate a batter’s HR/FB rate spike was. We could consider factors like the hitter’s age, his career history including minor leagues and any changes in environment such as home park. Unfortunately, it felt more like a guessing game with the conclusion usually being that the hitter was going to regress the following year back to his career levels. But that doesn’t always happen of course and Jose Bautista wants to make sure you know this. Jeff Zimmerman’s average fly ball and home run distance leaderboard makes it easy for us to find exactly the stat we need when on the hunt to validate a power surge. Did the hitter’s distance rise in conjunction with his HR/FB rate like we would expect to see or not?

Read the rest of this entry »

As you are no doubt keenly aware, Eno has been furiously posting the RotoGraphs rankers’ position rankings over the past week. This is always an interesting and sometimes surprising exercise as I find players I didn’t think I liked ranked higher than the others, whereas guys I thoughts I liked are ranked lower. Trying to figure out why such was the case is the fun part. But rather than explain why each player I ranked differently was ranked at such spot (don’t worry, Pod’s Picks will soon be upon us!), I thought it would be helpful to explain the various general reasons a player is ranked dramatically differently than others rank that same player. Or, in simpler terms, what leads to a difference in ranking?

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projection train has left the station and is gaining momentum, as today brings another forecast for your reading pleasure. The young Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha dazzled over nine starts and 64.2 innings in his rookie debut and then impressed on the biggest stage in the playoffs, posting a 2.64 ERA in five starts. Not surprisingly, he is quite the target of many a fantasy player, as he’s currently the 17th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues, going 92nd overall. Could he possibly deliver that kind of value to his owners?

Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Pod Projection is the Orioles young third sacker, Manny Machado. In his first full season, the sophomore accumulated a mightily impressive 6.2 WAR. Unfortunately, his season ended with a serious knee injury that required surgery. As a result, he may not be ready for opening day and the uncertainty is reducing his draft cost.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Nationals starting rotation was already pretty good last year and they may be even better this season. The top four features one of the best young (and overall) pitchers in the game and a trio of strong veterans. It’s that last slot that will provide all the drama during spring training. And given the contenders, it’s one worth watching, even for shallow mixed leaguers.

Read the rest of this entry »

After a far too long three week break from publishing my first Pod Projection, it’s time to get back on the saddle. Today I’ll take you through my projection for the young Rockies third baseman, Nolan Arenado. He’s a man who is sure to be considered a sleeper by many, which of course immediately jacks up his price and no longer qualifies him as a sleeper.

Read the rest of this entry »