Author Archive

Kyle Schwarber, Second Rounder?

In 157 plate appearances, Kyle Schwarber has posted a .406 wOBA. He’s a rookie. And a catcher (well, half the time). If he qualified for the leaderboard, that wOBA mark would easily rank highest among catchers, while sitting sixth in all of baseball. He has certainly enjoyed quite the tremendous start to his Major League career and the Cubs have an embarrassing amount of young talent.

We haven’t even finished the month of August yet and I’m certainly not looking toward 2016 yet. But apparently some are. And in an article I read recently, the author discussed his early picks for the first two rounds of next year’s drafts. Schwarber wasn’t included, but was discussed at the end as a notable omission.

The fact that he was even mentioned as part of a small group of omissions shocked me. That’s typically the case when we start mock drafting for the following year and you see a new name in the first couple of rounds. It takes a while to get used to seeing a new name, so the knee-jerk reaction is to feel that it’s ridiculous and the player is severely overvalued after a breakout or career year. Is it fair to feel that way about Schwarber or is he rightfully zooming up 2016 lists?

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Last 14 Day AL Starting Pitcher Velocity Decliners

Last week, I discussed the five starting pitchers whose fastball velocity had experienced the greatest surge over the previous two weeks. So today, I’ll check in on the decliners. Since velocity trends upward as the season rolls on, a significant decline in velocity at this time is concerning and could signal a serious issue.

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Travis Jankowski & Kaleb Cowart: Deep League Wire

In just a couple of weeks, deep league waiver wires across the land will be overflowing with options as rosters expand. But you don’t have to wait until September as a pair of minor leaguers will be making their debut and are expected to get near regular at-bats for the time being!

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Six Lightly Owned Home Run Contributors

Yesterday, I discussed four lightly owned hitters who could contribute positive value in stolen bases over the rest of the season in deep leagues. I inadvertently included all American Leaguers. Oops, my bad. Not again! So today, I’ll highlight six hitters who could be respectable sources of power for the deep league owner in need, half of which are National Leaguers!

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Four Lightly Owned Stolen Base Contributors

With just about a month and a half left in the season to go, it’s not automatically about choosing the most valuable offensive contributor for your active lineup. More important is where you sit in the various categories and which you could gain and lose the most points. For those in need of some speed, these four young men are almost certainly available in your league. All are owned in 10% or less in CBS leagues, though are probably better options in deeper leagues, rather than shallow mixers.

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Last 14 Day AL Starting Pitcher Velocity Surgers

We know that average fastball velocity rises as the season progresses. And of course, velocity is highly correlated with strikeout rate. Sometimes velocity increases as a result of improved/changed mechanics, while other times pitchers might suddenly feel healthier than they had earlier in the season. Players are always dealing with aches and pains, the majority of which we never hear about. Since velocity stabilizes quickly, we should take surges very seriously. They could portend or confirm better performance. So here are your American League starting pitchers who have enjoyed at least a two mile per hour jump in velocity since April over the last two weeks.

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Abraham Almonte & Chris Johnson: Deep League Wire

The trade that jettisoned both Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher opened up opportunities for two players to make some sort of impact in deep leagues. So today is an all Indians edition of the deep league waiver wire.

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Brandon Belt as Joey Votto

As we have learned more about what drives hitter BABIP in recent years, we have talked a lot about batted ball type distribution. Joey Votto is always the example of what the ideal profile looks like for posting an inflated BABIP. It’s not necessarily the profile that leads to the highest wOBA (that’s more an individual ideal), but what would typically result in the highest rate of balls in play falling for hits.

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Say it Ain’t Sano

According to our prospect guru Kiley McDaniel, Miguel Sano was the game’s 15th best prospect and the Twins second best. After missing the entire 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, he figured to prove he was healthy at Double-A this season before eventually (hopefully) earning a promotion to Triple-A. Perhaps a September cup of coffee was in the cards, though more likely he was expected to make his anticipated Twins debut in 2016. Instead, the Twins decided to get aggressive and promote the 22 year old to the Majors, completely skipping Triple-A. This is typically a risky move as anecdotally hitters endure a tougher transition jumping straight from Double-A to the Majors than do pitchers. Sano, however, never received that memo.

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2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: August

It’s rankings update time! But sadly, this will be the last one of the season. In the past updates, I have listed a bunch of guys on the DL at the end. This time around, they have been completely omitted unless they are expected to return in the coming week.

My usual caveat on how I rank pitchers follows:

It’s essential to remember that ERA is not a skill. It’s just a result. So I don’t really care what a pitcher’s ERA is at the moment. What I’m really interested in is their peripherals and any changes in pitch mix and/or velocity. And even if their peripherals have changed, you then have to ask yourself if it’s sustainable. Again, more likely is that what we initially forecasted is what is going to be posted the rest of the way, though obviously this is not always the case.

As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

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