Let’s begin our discussion of a foursome of American League starting pitchers saddled with inflated ERAs by presenting two tables first:

Pitching Metric YoY Correlations

Metric	YoY Correlation 2002-2012
WHIP	0.430
ERA	0.373
LOB%	0.238
BABIP	0.235
HR/FB	-0.029

SOURCE: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/basic-pitching-metric-correlation-1955-2012-2002-2012/

Pitching Metric Stabilization Points

Metric	Stabilization Point
HR/FB	400 fly balls
BABIP	2,000 balls in play

SOURCE: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s go deep down into the depths of your free agent pool. It’s where the risks are great and hidden treasures may emerge. Today’s theme is speculating on two guys that could remain worthless, but will cost you next to nothing to find out.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I shared a list of the 11 hitters who have enjoyed the most sizable improvement in strikeout rate versus last season. If sustained, there’s a good chance that each of the hitters produce a sweet profit for their owners. On the other side of the coin are the hitters whose strikeout rates have increased the most. This is the danger zone. Let’s dive in.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, Eno discussed swing rate and ground ball rate changers as we finally started hitting the stabilization points of certain offensive metrics. Now, many hitters have reached the point at which strikeout rate become reliable, which has been found to be at 60 plate appearances. Obviously, all else being equal, a better strikeout rate will lead to better results. More balls in play equals a higher batting average, more home runs, and additional opportunities to drive in and score runs, and steal bases. So who has improved their strikeout rates the most so far compared to 2015?

Read the rest of this entry »

After a breakout 2015 campaign (2014 wasn’t a legit breakout, as it required a 6.9% HR/FB rate), this was not the start Chris Archer owners were expecting. He has posted an ugly 7.32 ERA and a rather hilarious 2.08 WHIP. That’s not a typo — his WHIP is above 2.00! It has only been four starts, but since he has already allowed six runs in half of them, it’s logical that there would be some concern. So let’s try to figure out what, if anything, is wrong.

Read the rest of this entry »

Somehow, this became an all-Twins edition of the deep league waiver wire. It wasn’t intended that way, but it does support the idea that struggling teams produce more waiver wire gems as they move around the deck chairs and try to figure out what setup leads to better performance.

Read the rest of this entry »

Exit Velocity! It’s all the rage now. And it should be. With just one season’s worth of incomplete data, we’re still trying to figure out what it all means. You’re familiar with my xHR/FB rate metric, right? That equation uses a hitter’s batted ball distance to determine what his HR/FB rate “should have” been. Unfortunately, batted ball distance is a result and the goal for any metrics I develop is to use metric that represent underlying skills. Exit velocity is that underlying skill. The hope is that it will eventually replace batted ball distance in my equation.

Read the rest of this entry »

It has only been three starts, but already after starts one and two, my FanGraphs colleagues have sounded the alarm bells on Felix Hernandez. Now it’s my turn to speculate after outing number three. I greatly dislike speculating and do my best to avoid temptation. But when the signs are there, it’s difficult to ignore them.

Read the rest of this entry »

So today is normally American League starting pitcher day, but that’s going to be pushed back. Perhaps to Monday. That’s because we’re only a week and a half into the season and there are still some crazy performance metrics being posted. I wanted to highlight them, laugh at them, and discuss them. By next Monday, they could be less crazy and there would be less laughing to do. And nobody wants them.

Statistics as of April 12, but will weave in performances from yesterday’s games when relevant.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s the debut of my deep league waiver wire column! This is where I share two players who are 10% owned or less in CBS leagues. These players generally should not be considered in 12-team mixed leagues and shallower.

Read the rest of this entry »