Alas, we made it to the last Pod’s Picks & Pans recap, as we conclude with the starting pitchers. Since I pride myself on my pitcher projections, I always feel pressure to deliver more accurate forecasts, and ultimately, rankings. Let’s see how things turned out this year.
The fun continues as the fantasy-like trades are piling up! Yesterday, the White Sox continued their fire sale by making a four-player trade, with Lucas Giolito being the centerpiece of their return. Heading into the 2016 season, Giolito was an elite prospect, ranking as the best in the Nationals system, thanks to a lethal fastball-curve ball combo. But a poor showing over a small sample in the Majors has dimmed his star a bit. Now rather than trying to rebound in the more pitcher friendly National League and a neutral Nationals Park, he’s going to have to regain his status in the American League in one of the most home run friendly parks in baseball.
Yesterday, we were treated to a thrilling blockbuster of a trade, the type that has probably become all too common in keeper leagues, in which a contending team gives up their top prospects, and a rebuilding team “dumps” their star(s) in return. You know by now that Chris Sale is heading to Beantown and will don a Red Sox uniform. Or perhaps you just heard that his socks have changed color, ya know, from white to red. Paul Sporer gave you a quick rundown on how the move is likely to affect Sale’s fantasy value, but I wanted to go through the park factors and get more specific. So let’s compare the relevant park factors and discuss how the park switch may impact his performance.
On Sunday, it was reported that Matt Holliday signed with the Yankees to presumably be their every day DH. Well, at least until his age rears its head and injuries take their roll. Though perhaps filling the DH role every day will help him remain healthy. Yesterday, Jeff Zimmerman discussed the move and how it could affect Holliday’s fantasy prospects, but I wanted to go a little bit deeper and dive into the park factors. Since the second half of 2009, Holliday has been a St. Louis Cardinal, which calls home one of the worst parks in baseball for right-handed home runs. So let’s compare Busch Stadium to Yankee Stadium and see how the park switch may effect Holliday’s numbers.
This wasn’t the season newly minted Andrew McCutchen owners had in mind when they rostered him during their 2016 drafts. Not only was he a disappointment in fantasy circles, but also in real baseball, where he easily posted the worst wOBA of his career and failed to muster even 1.0 WAR, finishing at a measly 0.7. His previous low WAR total was 3.4 set during his 2009 rookie season! Check out where he has ranked among outfielders since 2012 according to our dollar values:
As a projectionist, it’s always fun when players switch teams. It doubles the challenge, as not only do I need to account for standards such as aging and regression in my forecast, but now I have to consider the effects of a switch in home parks. When Khris Davis was traded to the Athletics before this season, I immediately projected a dip in offensive performance, unadjusted for park. That was a normal reaction. Just check out the park factors! Below is a breakdown of just those park factors the two parks sharply differed in.
At last, we come to our final outfielder Steamer and I review. Today, I’ll recap my Steamer and I battle over Michael Conforto, which pit my Pod Projection against the Steamer projection system. I was surprised to learn that I was significantly more bullish on Conforto than Steamer was, as I felt he was actually overvalued in fantasy leagues, though mostly due to his expected lineup slot toward the bottom of the Mets order. Let’s see what we expected versus what actually transpired.
Onward and forward we move with the Steamer and I series recaps, pitting my Pod Projection against Steamer! Today, I’ll review how we forecasted Yoenis Cespedes. Unlike Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig who I previously recapped, I was actually significantly more bullish than Steamer on Cespedes. Let’s find out exactly what each system was projecting versus how Cespedes actually fared.
Let’s continue with the outfielder Steamer and I reviews by checking in on an amusing player — Yasiel Puig. I was significantly more bearish on Puig than Steamer was, and while we know now that Puig has continued his offensive slide, let’s dive into exactly what we expected versus how he actually performed.
Today, I start my reviews of my Steamer and I series that happened to cover mainly outfielders (not by design). The series compared my Pod Projection to the Steamer projection, as I discussed the players I was either significantly more bullish or bearish on compared to the system. We start with Mike Trout, who I was far more bearish on than Steamer. It was an interesting exercise for me since I had no idea I was in that position to begin with. Diving it to determine why was an enlightening activity.
