Let’s continue my picks and pans with a look at the second base and shortstop positions. Like for the corner guys, I’ll only consider Picks to be those in my top 20 and Pans to be those in the consensus top 20.
March Rankings Updates:
Second Base
Shortstop
Yesterday, I shared my picks and pans at the catcher position by comparing my ranks to the consensus ranks after excluding my own. Continuing through the infield, we’ll combine first and third base together so I can finish these before the season begins. These were the March updated first base rankings and here are the third base rankings.
Unlike catchers, I’m going to restrict my picks to those that made my top 20 and my pans to those that made the consensus top 20.
It’s Pod’s Picks and Pans time! Last week, we rolled out our updated RotoGraphs positional rankings, so as usual, it’s time to discuss the players I’m in most disagreement on. As suggested by a commenter last year, I’m using the LN function to determine the difference between my rank and the consensus. This method better accounts for the fact that there’s a larger difference in value between a hitter ranked 2nd versus 3rd than one ranked 20th versus 21st.
I’ll start with catchers. Pod’s Picks will only include hitters in my top 24, while Pod’s Pans will only include hitters in the consensus top 24. Keep in mind I removed my ranking from the average and recalculated the average from the Rankings Update.
Alas, it’s finally time to wrap up the Pod vs Steamer Projections series, which pitted my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections in several fantasy categories, discussing which players I’m significantly more bullish and bearish on. Last week, I identified 13 pitchers I was far more bullish on than Steamer for ERA. In doing this exercise, I realized I was actually forecasting lower ERAs for the majority of the pitchers we both projected. So now turning to the pitchers I forecasted a higher ERA for, there was literally only 21 to choose from, most of which were within 0.10 runs of each other, which is, like, nothing. But here are seven fantasy relevant pitchers I’m a bit more bearish on than Steamer.
The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.
Who was the most surprising starting pitcher in fantasy baseball last year? The answer might just be Kyle Hendricks. We ranked him 54th among starters heading into the season and he ended up earning $29.10, fourth most among starters at the end of the year. Oh, and he finished third in the Cy Young award voting. He also posted a suppressed .250 BABIP, a LOB% above 80%, and outperformed his SIERA by the widest margin among all qualified starters. So obviously, the knee-jerk reaction would be to figure some severe regression this season. Right? Let’s find out.
Earlier in the year, I introduced the newest versions of batter xBABIP and xHR/FB. Finally, after many, many requests, I share with you every batter’s 2016 marks that I have calculated. Enjoy!
We’re winding down our comparison of the Pod Projections and Steamer projections and will finish things off by moving on over to starting pitchers. What do we care about most? ERA, of course. So we’ll begin by checking in on a smattering of fantasy relevant hurlers in which I’m forecasting a significantly better ERA than Steamer. Interestingly, it appears that I’m simply far more bullish than Steamer in general, as I’m forecasting a lower ERA for 141 of the 161 starters that I project! That’s pretty crazy.
The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.
2017 Pod Projections Index:
Lance McCullers
David Dahl
Keon Broxton
Last night, I needed some inspiration. Who would be tomorrow’s Pod Projection? So I asked my Twitter followers and received a slew of options. Ultimately, I landed on a player I never considered for this honor and was “voted” on by just one tweeter. Trea Turner was so good last season over just 324 plate appearances that he finished 12th in value among second basemen. He essentially matched Ben Zobrist’s value in only about half the plate appearances!
And while we throw the term sample size around all the time and stress the importance of concepts like regression, fantasy owners are closing their ears and yelling lalalalala, because they love their Trea and there’s nothing you could do about it. He’s being selected 10th overall on average in NFBC drafts and has even apparently gone first overall, while he also holds an ADP of 13.5 in Fantrax drafts. Are fantasy owners nuts or is this not a repeat case of Carlos Correa and overvaluing a small sample?
Welcome to the RotoGraphs Matchmaker Service. No, I cannot find you a date. However, we could hopefully facilitate the marriage of league owner with leagueless owner. If you are seeking an owner to fill your fantasy league or are the owner hoping to be seeked (how is that not a word?) to join that unfilled league, this is your new home. In the comments, please advertise your league openings or your availability and desire to join a league. To make things easier, it would be helpful to include the details of the league you’re seeking to fill or prefer to join in the following format:
After a short break to tend to family matters, let’s return to the comparison of my Pod Projections to the Steamer forecasts. A week ago, I identified six hitters I was more bullish on for stolen bases, so today, I’ll discuss the hitters I’m more bearish on. To ensure we’re comparing apples to apples, I extrapolated Steamer’s stolen base projections to the same number of plate appearances I’m forecasting for each player.
