Poll 2017: Which Group of Pitchers Performs Better? — A Review
Once again, heading into the all-star break, I presented two lists of 10 pitchers each — both lists composed of pitchers on each side of SIERA-ERA differential. I then asked you to vote on which group, the SIERA overperformers or underperformers, would power a lower second half ERA, and which ERA range each group will land in as a group average. Amazingly, the results suggested these two groups of pitchers were identical! Both garnered between 44% and 45% of the vote to post the lower ERA, while nearly 11.5% of you couldn’t choose a side, predicting the groups would finish within .05 earned runs of each other. Furthermore, 29% voted that 4.00-4.24 would be the ERA range that both groups would settle into, with 3.75-3.99 the second highest vote-getter at 27% and 28%. Pretty crazy how close these votes were! Let’s see what actually happened.