Yesterday, I discussed the starting pitchers who have experienced the largest spikes in ground ball rate. In the era of the fly ball and home run, it’s more important than ever to induce the batted ball type that cannot leave the park — the grounder. Today, let’s dive into the starting pitchers who have seen their GB% dive compared to last year. Remember we’re still dealing with tiny samples here, so it’s likely the majority of pitchers regress toward their career average. But that won’t always be the case, so it’s worth trying to catch the batted ball type distribution changers early.

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Though the leaguewide HR/FB rate is down (likely due in part to the cold weather), it’s clear that this fly ball revolution is here to stay. That’s bad news for fly ball pitchers, because now more of their fly balls are going to jump over the wall for a home run. The best way to keep your HR/9 rate in check is by inducing grounders. So let’s check in on the early starting pitcher ground ball rate surgers.

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It’s still way too early to be analyzing anything. Heck, after Tuesday’s games, the league leader in plate appearances sits at just 33! That said, batted ball type distribution does stabilize relatively quickly, compared to other metrics. So even though we’re still not even halfway toward our 80 balls in play stabilization point, it’s worth checking in on batter fly ball rates. Perhaps we’ll get an early indication of which hitters have joined the fly ball revolution and are poised for a home run surge.

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Yesterday, I took an early dive into leaguewide statistical trends on the hitting side. Obviously, it would be silly to evaluate hitters already, but not so for the league as a whole. Today, I switch over to the pitcher side. Since many of the metrics we would normally discuss are the same as for hitters that were discussed yesterday, let’s talk about pitch usage and plate discipline stats. Unlike yesterday when I was able to compare this season to just March/April of the previous four seasons, the Splits Leaderboard doesn’t give me the metrics I need. So rather than make more work for myself, all previous seasons are full season stats. Aside from velocities, it shouldn’t matter.

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While it’s going to be a while before we have a large enough sample size to properly evaluate hitters, it’s actually not too early to start acknowledging statistical trends on a leaguewide basis. So let’s dive into a series of ratios, comparing where we stand after just four days into the MLB season, with the March/April numbers going back to 2014.

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We’re already four games into the season! We know that fastball velocity stabilizes quite quickly and while it’s too early to all out panic about anything, it’s far more acceptable to panic, or get excited, about a pitcher’s velocity than anything else. Obviously, not every pitcher has thrown a pitch this season yet, and stats are only updated through Saturday’s games as I type this. So this obviously isn’t a comprehensive comparison, but we’ll keep rolling out updates.

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Almost exactly six years ago, I published a study that suggested pitcher spring training strikeout and walk rates had some predictive value for the upcoming season. Not a lot, of course, but there was definitely something there that shouldn’t be ignored like the rest of spring stats. I looked at all pitchers who have logged at least 15 innings this spring, and then compared their strikeout rate to the Pod Projection strikeout rate. Let’s discuss the 10 starting pitchers that enjoyed the largest spikes. I’ll take a look back at the end of the season to see if these surges really were prescient.

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Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that far more difficult to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, though. Given that there is both more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is challenging to balance boldness with realistic, considering this requires me to bet against a group of names in which it’s like a 95% lock that one of them wins the category. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category. I decided against a bold wins league leader, because wins are silly and unpredictable. All I usually do is pick a good pitcher on a top offense.

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Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions, I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders are even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe is considered bold or is projected to finish top five in the category. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000. This is more for fun and dreaming of what could be than any serious attempt at being right.

We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.

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Only four days until Opening Day! Now that all my drafts and auctions have been completed, it’s finally time to reveal my 2018 bold predictions.

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