For the vast majority of the season, I completely ignore ERA, instead relying on SIERA for rest of season projection purposes. While this method is far better than looking solely at ERA, what about the pitchers you expected to be good, but have been terrible, with weak skills to match? These are the guys whose SIERA confirms they have pitched poorly, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will continue posting such weak skills. So let’s discuss three starters we expected better from, but whose current skills don’t provide much hope for a rebound.

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It’s an all Mets edition of the deep league waiver wire! I could hear the excitement through my computer screen.

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Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to identify and discuss ten hitters who have enjoyed a surprise HR/FB rate surge that is actually justified. Today, let’s dive into the disappointing HR/FB guys who xHR/FB rate confirms the power outage. An appearance here doesn’t guarantee doom and gloom the rest of the way, but that these hitters haven’t been unlucky so far, but actually powerless.

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Last week, I calculated every hitter’s xHR/FB rate, and then listed and discussed those whose marks were well above their actual HR/FB rates (suggesting imminent improvement) and those whose marks were most below their actual HR/FB rates (suggesting imminent decline). Those posts provided some actionable advice, in the form of buy low targets and guys you might want to consider selling high. But what about the hitters whose underlying skills actually justify their HR/FB rate spikes? These are the guys you might consider buying high, or if you already own the player, shouldn’t rush to sell high.

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You need help in your deep league. I’m here for you.

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters whose xHR/FB rates most exceeded their actual HR/FB rates, suggesting the potential for dramatic upside in the near term. Today, let’s check in on those hitters on the opposite side of the ledger — those whose actual HR/FB rates most exceed their xHR/FB marks. This is the group at major risk of regression.

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With about a month of the season in the bag, it’s finally time to analyze my newest version of xHR/FB rate unveiled last year. This is the best method publicly available for calculating an expected HR/FB rate, so ignore any analysis solely revolving around Brls/BBE or exit velocity. So let’s find out which hitters have posted xHR/FB rate marks at least 10% above their actual marks. These hitters are due for imminent improvement.

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A week ago, I discussed the American League starting pitchers who have improved their Z-Contact% (batter contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone) most versus 2017. Today, let’s take a look at the pitchers on the other side — those who have induced fewer in-zone whiffs, meaning their Z-Contact% marks are well above what they posted last season.

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Who wants to join me under the sea, exploring the deep depths of the free agent waters?

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Yesterday, I ran my newest xBABIP calculations, comparing it to actual BABIP. I discussed a slew of hitters who are due for an imminent BABIP surge given xBABIP marks that greatly exceed their actuals. Today, let’s check in on those hitters whose xBABIP marks are significantly below their actual marks. These batters are at serious risk of dramatic regression over the rest of the season.

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