A week ago, I discussed the American League starting pitchers who have improved their Z-Contact% (batter contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone) most versus 2017. Today, let’s take a look at the pitchers on the other side — those who have induced fewer in-zone whiffs, meaning their Z-Contact% marks are well above what they posted last season.
Who wants to join me under the sea, exploring the deep depths of the free agent waters?
Yesterday, I ran my newest xBABIP calculations, comparing it to actual BABIP. I discussed a slew of hitters who are due for an imminent BABIP surge given xBABIP marks that greatly exceed their actuals. Today, let’s check in on those hitters whose xBABIP marks are significantly below their actual marks. These batters are at serious risk of dramatic regression over the rest of the season.
Last year, I unveiled the latest version of my xBABIP equation. It utilizes our Splits Leaderboard in order to account for defensive shifts, something that has never been reflected in xBABIP formulas previously. As a result, it does the best job we’ve seen so far in estimating BABIP. So let’s check in on early xBABIP marks and discuss those who have underperformed the most. These guys are due for an imminent surge as balls fall in for hits on a far more frequent basis.
As it remains far too early to actually analyze results (like ERA and WHIP), let’s continue discussing the underlying skills driving those results. Those skills are significantly more important when projecting for the future. So let’s find out which American League starting pitchers have improved their in-zone whiff rate the most. In FG metric parlance, that means calculating who has reduce their Z-Contact% by the greatest rate.
This week’s deep league waiver wire is brought to you by the injury demon. This demon makes frequent visits. His presence creates opportunities for lesser owned players to make deep league contributions. Here are two of those candidates.
Yesterday, I discussed the early fly ball & line drive exit velocity surgers. Today, let’s dive into the decliners. Explanations for such a dramatic drop in exit velocity ranges from a small sample cold streak, playing through injury, or good old deterioration of power skills. If only we knew which of those explanations applied to each player!
Exit velocity is an underlying skill that drives results. I like analyzing underlying skills. So let’s check in on the average fly ball and line drive exit velocity (FB/LD EV) surgers. Though the metric didn’t make it into my newest version of xHR/FB rate, it still correlates with offensive output and power.
It’s still far too early to analyze a lot of the metrics we typically use to evaluate players. But underlying skills like SwStk% are meaningful more quickly than strikeout rate because the denominator increases faster. So let’s peruse the American League starting pitcher SwStk% leaderboard and discuss.
Welcome to the first 2018 edition of the deep league waiver wire! This is where I recommend two players with ownership rates that don’t exceed 10% in CBS leagues. These recommendations are geared toward deep leaguers, which is mostly mono leagues (AL-Only or NL-Only). But, sometimes I feel they are worthy of shallower league consideration, and I’ll note when that happens.
