After many years in AL Tout Wars, I finally discovered one of the major keys to success – anticipation. Picking up players before their call up who may have a significant fantasy impact is a wise move. I had written down the names of two of these players last week, but unfortunately I once again forgot that we had moved the FAAB deadline to 1 PM from midnight and therefore failed to make any bids. Naturally, both players were bid on, but it probably didn’t matter for me as I likely would have been outbid.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I used the Statcast expected metrics to calculate player xISO marks, then comparing them to actuals. I began by looking at those hitters who have posted ISO marks most below their xISO marks, suggesting the potential for significant upside in the near future. Today, let’s discuss hitters whose actual ISO marks have most exceeded their xISO marks, suggesting possible downside.

Read the rest of this entry »

This year, the Baseball Savant pages at MLB.com have shared even more data, as new metrics are being calculated and published for our analytic pleasure. The Expected Statistics page calculates a hitter’s expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA. Sweet! Though I can’t recall any exhaustive research studies on the predictive power of their expected metrics, I know the Statcast guys are top notch and trust they have done a good job.

Read the rest of this entry »

For the vast majority of the season, I completely ignore ERA, instead relying on SIERA for rest of season projection purposes. While this method is far better than looking solely at ERA, what about the pitchers you expected to be good, but have been terrible, with weak skills to match? These are the guys whose SIERA confirms they have pitched poorly, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will continue posting such weak skills. So let’s discuss three starters we expected better from, but whose current skills don’t provide much hope for a rebound.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s an all Mets edition of the deep league waiver wire! I could hear the excitement through my computer screen.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to identify and discuss ten hitters who have enjoyed a surprise HR/FB rate surge that is actually justified. Today, let’s dive into the disappointing HR/FB guys who xHR/FB rate confirms the power outage. An appearance here doesn’t guarantee doom and gloom the rest of the way, but that these hitters haven’t been unlucky so far, but actually powerless.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I calculated every hitter’s xHR/FB rate, and then listed and discussed those whose marks were well above their actual HR/FB rates (suggesting imminent improvement) and those whose marks were most below their actual HR/FB rates (suggesting imminent decline). Those posts provided some actionable advice, in the form of buy low targets and guys you might want to consider selling high. But what about the hitters whose underlying skills actually justify their HR/FB rate spikes? These are the guys you might consider buying high, or if you already own the player, shouldn’t rush to sell high.

Read the rest of this entry »

You need help in your deep league. I’m here for you.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters whose xHR/FB rates most exceeded their actual HR/FB rates, suggesting the potential for dramatic upside in the near term. Today, let’s check in on those hitters on the opposite side of the ledger — those whose actual HR/FB rates most exceed their xHR/FB marks. This is the group at major risk of regression.

Read the rest of this entry »

With about a month of the season in the bag, it’s finally time to analyze my newest version of xHR/FB rate unveiled last year. This is the best method publicly available for calculating an expected HR/FB rate, so ignore any analysis solely revolving around Brls/BBE or exit velocity. So let’s find out which hitters have posted xHR/FB rate marks at least 10% above their actual marks. These hitters are due for imminent improvement.

Read the rest of this entry »