Last week, I discussed the most disappointing starting pitchers after comparing CBS’ projected versus actual ranking. Today, we look into the surprises and ask ourselves whether they could keep up the magic.
The upcoming non-waiver trade deadline is always a fun time for fantasy owners, especially for those in mono leagues. Trades open up opportunities for those already on the club or newly arriving, plus prospects recalled to replace those traded away. Furthermore, many teams are treating this time as the official time to play for the future. Let’s discuss two names who may benefit from such moves in the near future.
Yesterday, I attempted to discuss the season’s biggest hitter disappointments by comparing each player’s projected CBS ranking to his current actual ranking. Unfortunately, injuries played a bigger role than I realized for several of the players, which explains a good portion of their disappointing fantasy value. Today I’ll discuss the biggest surprises and luckily injuries won’t screw up my analysis this time!
Last week, I compared CBS’ projected rankings versus their actual rankings to determine which starting pitchers have disappointed the most. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters. I used the same simple math, subtracting projected ranking from actual ranking and then sorted by the difference in descending order. I excluded injured/suspended players not expected to return soon, hitters who missed a chunk of time to injury that has limited their counting stat production, and those in the minors. I limited the players to those projected inside the top 200. Basically, if they were only projected to earn a couple of bucks, is it really so disappointing if they’ve “earned” -$10 so far? Nah.
With two ratio categories out of four they contribute to, starting pitchers could turn around their seasons much more easily than hitters, who must make up ground in four counting stats. I compare the CBS projected and actual rankings and sorted by the difference for a list of the most disappointing and surprising starters. I eliminated any pitcher currently on the DL. These six are arguably the most disappointing. Will any of them deliver the kind of value over the second half that fantasy owners paid for?
Since 2013, I have polled you dashingly attractive readers on which group of pitchers you think will post the better aggregate ERA post all-star break. The two groups were determined based on ERA-SIERA disparity, pitting the overperformers versus the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period.
Yesterday, I discussed the nine hitters whose Auto Out% (AO%) had improved most versus 2017. As a reminder, AO% is simply the sum of strikeouts and infield fly balls (aka, popups) divided by plate appearances. Let’s take a look at the hitters whose AO% has risen most dramatically versus last season.
Last week, I introduced Auto Out% (AO%), which is just strikeouts and infield fly balls (IFFB) as a percentage of plate appearances. I began by discussing the starting pitchers who have increased their AO% most since 2017. Let’s now turn our attention to the hitters. Using the same formula, these are the nine hitters who have most improved their AO%.
Auto Out% (AO%) surgers…huh?! Yeah, I just made it up. But you know what this metric is because my colleagues have written articles about it. It’s simply strikeouts plus infield flies as a percentage of batters faced. These are essentially automatic outs, hence the name Auto Out%. We know that for pitchers, strikeouts are the best plate appearance result because it’s an almost guaranteed out. But infield fly balls aren’t too far behind in terms of out conversion. Yet, we focus far more on a pitcher’s strikeout rate than his popup rate, which is often completely ignored. Combining them gives us even better information than focusing on just one of the pair. So let’s find out which starting pitchers have improved their AO% the most versus 2017.
If you’re dying to catch an outfielder, this is the waiver wire piece for you. This is especially true if you’re in an NL-Only league, where this pair is almost assured of delivering positive fantasy value in the near term.
