On Thursday, I identified and discussed the hitters(with at least 30 fly balls in each year) who increased their average fly ball distance (AFBD) marks the most from 2017 to 2018. Now let’s take a look at the biggest decliners. If a hitter on this list suffered a dramatic drop in HR/FB rate, this is likely why.
On Monday and Tuesday, I discussed the surgers and the decliners in one of my xHR/FB rate metrics, barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB). Today, I’ll move on to another component of the equation, average fly ball distance (AFBD, because I’m lazy).
Yesterday, I identified and discussed the hitters that increased their barrels per true fly ball rate (Brls/TFB), a metric that makes up one of my xHR/FB rate components. Let’s now take a gander at those whose Brls/TFB rates declined most from 2017 to 2018. We’ll limit the list to declines of at least 10%.
A year ago, I introduced the newest version of my xHR/FB rate equation. One of its components is barrels per true by ball rate (Brls/TFB), which divides the Statcast Barrels count by fly balls – pop-ups. The use of true fly balls, rather than the batted ball events (BBE) count the Baseball Savant leaderboard shows us, pits all types of hitters on the same playing field, instead of unfairly penalizing extreme ground ball hitters or benefiting extreme fly ball hitters.
Let’s take a look at all hitters with at least 30 true fly balls that increased their Brls/TFB rate by at least 10%. Then I’ll discuss the interesting names.
About a week and a half ago, Jurickson Profar was traded to the Athletics, in a move that surprised me. After he finally enjoyed his first full season, and a solid one at that, now the Rangers are sending him away?! Too funny. I still remember when he was an uber-prospect many, many years ago. How might the move to Oakland affect his performance? Let’s check the park factors.
Last Thursday, Nelson Cruz inked a one-year deal with the Twins, which will become official after a physical. Cruz has refused to succumb to the effects of aging, but that will happen at some point…I assume. After spending four seasons in Seattle, he now joins the Twins. Let’s find out how the park factors compare and how that could impact Cruz’s performance.
Yesterday, Indian-for-life Michael Brantley signed a two-year deal with the Astros. Paul Sporer analyzed the implications for the Astros. Now let’s find out how the change in parks might affect his performance.
Yesterday, Wilson Ramos officially signed a two-year contract with the Mets, marking the end of the “Travis d’Arnaud, breakout candidate” hopes. Ramos will now join his third team in two seasons, as he began last year with the Rays, but finished with about a quarter of his plate appearances in Philadelphia. Let’s check the park factors to learn how the change in parks might affect his value. Since he recorded the majority of his plate appearances in Tampa, and played there all season in 2017, we’ll compare their park to Citi Field in New York.
Last Thursday, the Mariners were involved in a fun three team trade, bringing Edwin Encarnacion to the Northwest. Though how long he remains there is anyone’s guess. First, there was a report that Encarnacion was going to be flipped to the Rays, but then soon after word was that he wasn’t going anywhere. So let’s pretend he’s now in Seattle for good. How might the change in parks affect the soon-to-be 36 year old? Let’s check the 2017 park factors.
The flurry of trades and signings has continued, this time with the White Sox getting into the action. The Pale Hose traded a minor leaguer to Cleveland for first baseman Yonder Alonso, despite the fact they already possessed a perfectly good first baseman who they don’t intend to trade. But whether Alonso or Jose Abreu play first and the other DHs doesn’t really matter, except during interleague games, which means it’s likely that Alonso will lose some plate appearances. How might the move from Progressive Field (Cleveland) to Guaranteed Rate Field (GRF – Chicago) affect Alonso’s offense? Let’s check in with the 2017 park factors.
