Yesterday, I identified and discussed five hitters who made surprise appearances near the top of the average fly ball distance leaderboard. Today, I’ll talk bottom dwellers. Let’s find out which surprising hitters found themselves bringing up the rear. Like I did with the leaders, I won’t include the hitter if he also appeared on the surprise barrels per true fly ball laggard list as well.
About a week ago, I shared the surprising hitters who finished amid the top tier in barrels per true fly ball rate, a metric I created that acts as one of the primary components of my xHR/FB rate equation. Another major component of the equation is average fly ball distance (Avg FB Dist), which isn’t typically discussed, as it’s not on the default Statcast leaderboard. So let’s find out which surprising hitters, who hit at least 30 fly balls, finished near the top in the metric. I also decided not to include any hitters that also appeared on the Brls/TFB surprise leaders list.
On Saturday, A.J. Pollock signed a four-year deal with the Dodgers, after spending his entire career with the Diamondbacks. Before the introduction of the humidor last season, Chase Field (Diamondbacks) was one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. But the humidor changed that as intended. So now we have a real park factor battle between his old home and his new Dodger Stadium home. Since the FanGraphs 2018 park factors haven’t been published yet, I will share a comparison from another source. Unfortunately, this source is missing strikeout and walk factors, which could certainly have an effect.
Though it might feel like he’s older, Asdrubal Cabrera will be entering just his age 33 season. It will happen while in a Rangers uniform, as he signed a one-year deal with the club on Tuesday. This makes it his sixth team in six seasons. Despite moving all around the country, he has remained pretty consistent offensively. How might the move to Globe Life Park (GLP) affect his stable performance? Let’s check the park factors, comparing GLP to Citi Field (Mets), as he spent the majority of last season in New York.
We all knew that Sonny Gray’s days as a New York Yankee had come to an end, and finally, the Reds acquired him and immediately signed him to a three-year extension. Moving to the National League is a good thing. Will the park switch improve his chances to rebound as well? Let’s check the 2017 park factors.
Yesterday, I identified and discussed six hitters who appeared near the top of my barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB) leaderboard. As a reminder, Brls/TFB is one of the primary components of my xHR/FB rate equation and is calculated by taking the Statcast Barrels count and dividing by the batter’s fly balls minus infield flies. Today, let’s check in on the hitters who surprisingly ranked closer to the bottom of the leaderboard, rather than the top.
Two weeks ago, I discussed the hitters who enjoyed surges and suffered declines in their barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB) rates, a metric that’s one of the primary components of my xHR/FB rate equation. Today, let’s identify and discuss some surprises at or near the top of the Brls/TFB leaderboard. Some of these hitters did post high HR/FB rate, so those hitters might not be so surprising as Brls/TFB leaders, but rather the rankign validates the success.
Yesterday, I identified and discussed the hitters who increased their fly ball pull percentage (FBP%) most from 2017 to 2018. Pulling the ball more frequently typically fuels power growth, so a significant decline could be the cause of a power dip. So let’s find out which hitters with at least 30 fly balls enjoyed a FBP% decline of at least 10%.
Alas, we have reached the final 2018 pair of recaps of the primary components of my xHR/FB rate equation, fly ball pull percentage (FBP%). Simply, it’s easier to hit a homer to the pull side. Why? Because the fences are closer down the lines than to center field. Plus, hitters are typically able to generate more power when pulling the ball, so they hit their pulled flies harder, plus those pulled flies don’t have to travel as far to jump over the fence for a dinger. So let’s find out which hitters with at least 30 fly balls enjoyed a FBP% surge of at least 10%.
Yesterday, catcher Yasmani Grandal signed a one-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, as he now joins his third team since 2012. Since he played for the Padres for three seasons and the Dodgers for four, if the pattern continues, the Brewers are going to sign him to a four-year deal next offseason to keep him in Milwaukee for five seasons! The now 30-year-old is coming off the best wOBA of his career. Let’s check in on the park factors to find out how much of an impact the change in parks might have on his 2019 performance.
