Welcome to the RotoGraphs Matchmaker Service! No, I cannot find you a date. However, we could hopefully facilitate the marriage of league owner with leagueless owner. If you are seeking an owner to fill your fantasy league or are the owner hoping to be seeked to join that unfilled league, this is your new home. In the comments, please advertise your league openings or your availability and desire to join a league. To make things easier, it would be helpful to include the details of the league you’re seeking to fill or prefer to join in the following format:

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Yesterday, I began comparing my 2019 Pod Projections to Steamer projections. I kicked off this year’s series by comparing our home run per 600 at-bat forecasts, starting with the hitters my projections deemed as having significant upside. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters on the opposite end — those that Steamer is dramatically more bullish in the home run department.

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Welcome to the 2019 Pod vs Steamer series, in which I pit my Pod Projections against Steamer projections in a variety of categories. First, I’ll start with home runs and today will be the upside guys.

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Last week, I used my xBABIP equation to identify and discuss eight hitters potentially due for a BABIP surge and six at risk of dramatic decline. Today I’ll check in on hitters that at first glance, wouldn’t appear to be far off from their xBABIP marks, while the surgers and decliners list were quite a bit more obvious. If you posted a .230 BABIP in 2017, you’re probably going to find yourself on a potential surger list, while a .380 BABIP is likely going to get you onto the decliner list.

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Yesterday, I discussed seven of last year’s breakouts and concluded with a verdict on whether I expect each to hold onto at least 80% of their 2018 end of season (EOS) dollar value this year. Today, I will discuss nine of 2018’s busts and conclude each blurb with a decision on whether they are likely to rebound.

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A year ago during Fantasy Baseball Week at The Hardball Times, I researched whether last season’s breakouts were solid investments the following year. Spoiler alert: they are actually terrible investments. Of course, that’s as a group. That means that not every breakout from the previous season is going to fall flat the following year. So let’s discuss some of the big breakouts from 2018 and decide whether each ends up as part of the poor investment bust group or they hold onto their gains.

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It’s Pod Projections time again, as the 2019 forecasts are now available and its forecasted player population keeps growing! As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.

2019 Pod Projection Index
Yusei Kikuchi

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Yesterday, I compared my xBABIP to actual BABIP to identify eight hitters with significant BABIP upside this season. Today, I’ll check in on six of the biggest xBABIP outperformers from 2018. These guys are at serious risk of dramatic BABIP downside, which would pull down their batting averages without an improvement in strikeout rate and/or jump in home run rate.

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While my xBABIP equation wasn’t developed to serve as a next season projection, you could certainly use it as a historical guide, just the way you would normally review actual BABIP marks. That’s precisely what I do to formulate my Pod Projections. One of the various ways to utilize xBABIP is to compare the hitter’s mark to his actual mark to determine how “real” the result was. Today, I’ll identify and discuss eight fantasy relevant hitters who posted xBABIP marks significantly higher than their actual marks, suggesting upside this season if they are able to maintain those underlying skills.

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Every season, there’s another can’t-miss top prospect. This year, that honor has been bestowed upon Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who ranked third on last year’s list. Not only does he find himself atop the 2019 mountain, but he’s the only prospect graced with a 70 (out of 80) Future Value grade, which equates to a 5.0 to 7.0 WAR and a top 10 overall player. That’s pretty incredible. Essentially, Guerrero is expected to be elite, a near surefire superstar, and the hype has predictably spread to fantasy leagues.

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