Yesterday we took a look at five hitters heading into their contract years, and today we’ll cover the guys on the mound. Remember, this is completely subjective on my part. I’m not really sure there would be another way to go about doing this.
Ah yes, the contract year. It’s a very real phenomenon, something our own Dayn Perry brilliantly analyzed in Baseball Between The Numbers. Fantasy teams benefit from contract years just as much as real teams do, and if you’re lucky you’ll roster one or two such players a year. This is 100% subjective on my part, but I put together a list of five position players that could be primed to explode in 2011 with their eyes on a contract for 2012. Tomorrow we’ll tackle some pitchers.
Following a standout rookie season in 2009 that featured a .270/.347/.460 batting line with 14 homers and 63 runs driven in, expectations were understandably high for Gordon Beckham last year. Instead of continuing on the path to stardom, Beckham struggled out of the gate and was staring at a .182/.285/.234 batting line with just five extra base hits (four doubles and a homer) on the morning of May 22nd. Many fantasy owners jumped ship, but those that stuck with him were rewarded.
Buster Posey and Jason Heyward garnered most of the attention among the NL rookie crop last season and rightfully so, but Mike Stanton of the Marlins was damn impressive in his own right. His 396 plate appearance debut featured a studly .248 ISO (15th highest among the 238 batters with at least 350 PA) and 22 homers, numbers that are pretty historic. The only other players with an ISO that high in that many plate appearances in their age 20 season: Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Alex Rodriguez, Bob Horner, and Frank Robinson. What does that mean for Stanton in 2011, specifically fantasy-wise?
Well, so much for that. Two of my recent posts were rendered obsolete or close to it in fell swoop yesterday. Time for some updates…
By now you’ve heard about and have had time to digest the blockbuster trade that sent Vernon Wells and his entire contract to the Angels for Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli. It was a stunning transaction that pitted one of the game’s youngest and brightest GM’s against a team mired in apparent desperation after a rather uneventful offseason, but man, it still took a day or two to wrap your head around that monster. As fantasy players, we get to celebrate Napoli’s freedom from Mike Scioscia and his Jeff Mathis love-fest.
Matt asks…
now, i know sounds like complete insanity, but here’s the situation:
i’m in a pretty deep 12 team, 7×7 league. one of our other players would like to unload greinke (10th rounder) and keep stephen drew (18th round) because of position scarcity. doing this would free up his 1-9 rounds for drafting pitchers, of which there are precious few quality arms available. i jokingly offered him castro over drew for greinke, and he’s accepted. now, i’m a castro fan, but i don’t think he’s going to be a fantasy stud — especially in a deep 7×7 league. should i hang onto castro, or take the offer? my gut is that castro’s stats can replaced, and a guy like greinke in the NL central able to be kept in the 10th is something you don’t pass up.
thanks in advance for any advice you could offer!
My guts says go for it, but let’s examine further.
The Cubs called up Starlin Castro last May and he immediately made a name for himself. He hit a three-run homer in his first big league plate appearance, and went 2-for-5 with a triple and six total RBI in that game. His first baker’s dozen games in the show resulted in a .375/.434/.500 batting line with ten steaks, and he settled in at .296/.336/.398 with 30 doubles, four triples, two homers, 31 RBI and nine steals the rest of the way, mostly from the second spot in the order. His raw fantasy output (.300 AVG, 53 R, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 10 SB, 506 PA) essentially equaled Jason Bartlett (.254 AVG, 71 R, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 11 SB, 532 PA) with an extra 50 or points of BABIP. Of course one of those guys is a veteran semi-journeyman and the other was named one of the 25 best prospects in the game before last season, so the expectations going forward are different.
Bill James projects a .310 AVG, 68 R, 4 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB performance in 2011 while the fans have Castro at .296 AVG, 83 R, 6 HR, 71 RBI, 19 SB. That’s basically the last three years of Derek Jeter’s career mashed together and divided by three, just with not nearly as many runs scored. Castro’s going to have to grow into some power, because he hit a total of nine minor league homers in nearly 1,100 plate appearances, though all those doubles in 2010 is a good sign. He’ll offer a very nice AVG and plenty of steals until that happens.
Zack Greinke, on the other hand, is a known quantity at this point. He’s unlikely to repeat his 2009 mastery just because that’s a unsustainable level of performance, but he’s a safe bet for a sub-4.00 ERA and a boatload of strikeouts. He’s obviously moving into the easier league (imagine him with 8-10 total starts against the Astros and Pirates) and a slightly more pitcher-friendly park (StatCorner has Kauffman Stadium’s wOBA factors at 104 for LHB and 100 for RHB compared to 100/97 for Miller Park), so the already solid ERA and WHIP will get a boost just from the trade. With a very good offense and the makings of a solid bullpen behind him, Greinke will find the wins to be a little easier to come by next season. I don’t want to put too much emphasis on intangibles, but if you buy into the whole “he’s motivated now that he’s on a contender” narrative, that’s just another feather in Greinke’s cap.
The projection systems love Greinke and why wouldn’t they. Barring injury between now and then, he should be one of the first five or six pitchers off the board come draft day, well above a tenth round keeper slot. There are very few reasons to be pessimistic about his 2011 production.
Without knowing the ins-and-outs of Matt’s roster, most specifically what the rest of his pitching staff looks like, I say go for it and take the trade and Greinke. It’s definitely not as clear cut as I thought it would be when I first read the question, but you’re trading potentially elite production at a scarce position for close to guaranteed elite production in the rotation. If Castro was more established and didn’t come with all the risks associated with being a 21-year-old big leaguer, I’d probably say keep him, but he’s not. You’re getting the best player in the deal, and that’s never a bad thing.
Click here to submit your fan projections for Castro and Greinke. Send in your mailbag questions using this link, and I’ll pick one or two a week to answer.
Despite all the mainstream praise of his defense, Torii Hunter finally shifted to a corner outfield spot last season, and did so in deference to a rookie. Peter Bourjos, a former tenth round pick, usurped Hunter in center, playing the position on an everyday basis after coming up in early-August. Our own Marc Hulet ranked Bourjos as the Angels’ fourth best prospect before the 2010 season while Baseball America had him second. Both parties agreed that he had the speed to steal a hefty number of bases on an annual basis, and that his power is more towards the gaps than over-the-fence (.159 ISO in the minors). The part about his excellent centerfield defense isn’t relevant to our interests, since we’re going to look at his 2011 fantasy value.
The Blue Jays were poised to lose their three best relief pitchers this offseason with Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Kevin Gregg all set to become free agents. Frasor accepted arbitration and will return in 2011, but Downs landed a three-year deal with the Angels and Gregg found two years in Baltimore. That left a considerable hole in Toronto’s bullpen, which they’ve addressed by signing Octavio Dotel and more recently Jon Rauch. Both have the “proven closer” tag (Dotel moreso than Rauch), so which one will see the save opportunities next season?
As they are wont to do, the Yankees recently identified a hole on their ballclub and shored it up by rebuilding the engine when a simple tune-up would have sufficed. Rafael Soriano as the beneficiary of their latest splurge, becoming the game’s fifth highest paid relief pitcher on an average annual value basis, and he won’t even get the responsibility of working the ninth inning. That will still belong to the unparalleled Mariano Rivera, and it takes a bite out of Soriano’s fantasy stock. It goes without saying that he’s a must have in leagues that count holds, but what if yours doesn’t?