I kind of love and I kind of hate this time of year all at the same time. We have things called a Yangervis leading third basemen in WAR and we have things like Carlos Santana walking at a 30% clip. Small sample sizes may be the tools of the foolhardy, but that doesn’t mean they don’t produce a little bit of fun along the way. Take for instance the performance of Kyle Seager. No really, take it.
It’s probably a little early to be digging deep anywhere and we haven’t had a rash of injuries strike the hot corner the way starting pitching was decimated recently. Still, you might be relying on a value play like Will Middlebrooks, Mike Moustakas, Chase Headley, or David Freese, all of whom have yet to do anything at all. Yeah, small sample size and all that, but it’s easy to panic when you’re not trotting superstars out there every day. Keeping an eye on plan C when plan B isn’t panning out isn’t a horrible idea — and a couple of third basemen are readily available in Cody Asche and Matt Dominguez.
I don’t really like tiers, but it probably has something to do with the neatness of placing a player in a designated strata. I’ve never used tiers in fantasy baseball drafts because I think it tends to blind you to the nuances of each player and the specific needs your team might have. But now that the season has started, you should be all drafted up and it’s time to brand your cattle.
So your league drafted a month ago and you wound up with Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Jarrod Parker, and Patrick Corbin. You’re all set!
Dr. James Andrews has been busy this Spring, and the starting pitching corps have been noticeably thinned as we stagger towards opening day. Not only has there been a rash of ligaments exploding, we’re also hearing about a bad back from Clayton Kershaw, a stiff neck from Yu Darvish, balky groins for Francisco Liriano and Homer Bailey, a bum toe from Hyun-Jin Ryu, and a bad everything for Mat Latos . Zack Greinke’s calf hurts. Matt Moore got hit in the face. Doug Fister strained his latissimus dorsi. Cole Hamels is thrilled to even be able to throw a baseball right now. And then there’s whatever is going on with Mike Minor.
Perhaps it’s not who will win the position battle for the last starting pitcher slot for the Cleveland Indians that matters. Rather, from a fantasy baseball perspective — who do you want to start on day five for the Cleveland Indians? Because it’s most certainly not Aaron Harang, who seems to be the poster boy for noodle-at-the-ceiling throwing when it comes to a requisite starting pitcher to nom nom nom innings. The battle, it seems, is down to Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, and Mr. Harang. Yes, yes, I know those of you clutching to your pretty shiny Trevor Bauer cry foul, but the tea leaves are suggesting a need for “refining” in beautiful Columbus.
After a year hiatus from boldly predicting, I’ve been cajoled into joining the fray at risk of being called not bold enough and too bold at the same time. I skipped last year for a several reasons, but chief among them was disdain for the pulp variety in which the bold had to occupy to qualify as truly bold. Nobody wants to be a faker bold. What I’ve come to realize is that a lot of our bold predictions simply quantify in narrative terms our own respective irrational exuberance of Spring. Which I think is healthy. So head screwed on straight with new context, I present my personal bold(ish) predictions (and my fingers are crossed to break the 30% threshold of correctness).
We all have our little mind tricks when it comes to draft preparation. Many rely on tiers. Others prefer straight list rankings. Maybe you use a magic 8-ball. But a principle I typically take into any draft is the point at which the talent available at a position isn’t distinguishable enough for me to care who I get. I call this the threshold in which you just punt: when your targeted players have left the board, and the remainder you could care less about.
Foreshadowed by my rather impotent title, this isn’t a strategy likely to bring you home the gold. This isn’t about who to take in the first round, or building your rotation, or sleeper picks. Or even post-hype sleeper picks, to be thorough. Rather, I spend probably far too much time thinking about that last pick, or last few to be precise. When half of your league has checked out from the stress of the draft, or the number of adult beverages they’ve consumed during that span, this is your chance to stockpile opportunity.
Jacoby Ellsbury takes his shiny new ring and shiny new contract to don what are ostensibly shiny new pinstripes, leaving the Boston Red Sox with a differently named center fielder on opening day for the first time since Coco Crisp played there in 2007. But the old out/new in truism certainly applies here as Ellsbury leaving creates new opportunities for fantasy baseball enthusiasts at a position I’m not finding particularly deep in 2014. Read the rest of this entry »
If you’re a Miami Marlin fan, you have a few things to cheer about. You have Jose Fernandez. You have Giancarlo Stanton. You don’t need to pretend to care about what Logan Morrison thinks anymore. And heck, your team is supposed to finish higher in the standings than at least one other team in the division, which is progress. But from a fantasy baseball perspective, there are actually a few other players to keep an eye on, which makes this Marlin team even more interesting.