Indeed, I’ve gazed deeply into my crystal ball to present to you yet another set of RotoGraphs bold predictions for 2012. I eagerly anticipate your commentary wrath.

1. Dan Haren wins 20 games. He had pretty rotten run support in 2011 and the Angels did a little something in the off-season that might affect run production. Haren had nine no decisions in which he posted a 2.90 ERA, 0.952 WHIP and an 8.0 K/9. There were 11 games in which the Angels scored two or fewer runs in and Haren won just three of them — but he posted a 2.12 ERA, 0.769 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9. Something’s gotta give, and I say he gets the better end of the wish bone in 2012.

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Headed into 2011, Martin Prado was ranked around 9th or 10th on most third base fantasy rankings, and in many, he was ahead of such gentlemen as Pablo Sandoval and Michael Young. Whoops.

At the time, there was a fair amount of debate about what exactly made Prado so special. He was essentially a two-category player (in traditional 5×5 leagues) being a plus at batting average and runs, and not much of a total drag at home runs and RBI. Prado was simply a guy that was hard to really get excited about and yet he generated a pretty good deal of fanfare among fantasy prognosticators.

And then of course, Prado went on to have a very disappointing season, producing a .260/.302/.385 line with 13 home runs and just 66 runs scored highlighted by a staph infection in his leg that put him on the shelf for most of June.

This year, Prado, 28,  has an ADP of about 150 in Yahoo leagues and 190 at mock draft central. The question is whether this precipitous drop in value is an opportunity or not. Read the rest of this entry »

I used to date a girl whose father was a used car salesman – and he had an uncanny ability to apply his motto to just about every facet of everyday life – that is, “everybody likes to feel like they got a good deal.” The underlying message, however was that people might like to feel like they got a good deal whether they did or not.

To his credit, this even applies in fantasy baseball. You might suggest Mat Gamel at auction at a price of $4 dollars and someone feeling like they’re getting a good deal takes him for $5. Yay, Mat Gamel! And yet, they probably could have had him for $2 bucks.

But let’s focus attention on actually getting a good deal at third base instead. And there are deals to be had, if early indications hold.

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We rely on mock drafts to help guide us on trends without necessarily acting as the definitive voice. They’re somewhat like exit polls in politics — we’re just trying to get a pulse on public opinion before we see the actual results, with the exception that in mock baseball drafts, we can’t be entirely assured that a human being actually made the pick.

The problem being of course, is that mock drafts across formats is a lot like exit polls in Wyoming versus New York. So much depends on context. For instance – if you’re targeting Ian Stewart for any particular reason, Yahoo would suggest that you should expect to see him taken in the 20th round. If you trust Mock Draft Central, he is drafted at roughly 442, should anyone ever get to that round awake.

Stewart is an extreme case but it’s worth pointing out the differences in systems. As you well know, how a player is ranked in the draft room almost inevitably impacts where they are ultimately drafted — and some of the differences are so big that it could dramatically alter your draft approach.

Focusing solely on third base — here are some of the players that have a pretty major difference between Mock Draft Central and Yahoo’s current ADP. For the heck of it, I threw in any notable percentage changes in trend at MDC in case recent news has them moving up or down, and I tossed in the rankings of Eric Karabell over at ESPN (those that made his top 100 anyway).

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So you take your Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez, you select Evan Longoria or Jose Bautista and breathe a sigh of relief that you have first base and third base covered, now let’s see about building something of a respectable pitching staff. And then around the 15th round it occurs to you that you have that pesky corner infield situation to tend to (not to mention middle infield, and for those of you in such leagues – one or more utility slots — but that’s for another post).

I have fallen into a false sense of security before during drafts where I select a player and feel a little like Ed Norton in Fight Club regarding his couch – that is, “I’ve got that sofa issue handled.” We know there’s more work to be done on the offense side of the dish, yet we might fail to plan as diligently as we did for the respective positions.

This post is a little strategy that might be quite “101” to some, but it was born out of comments about the need to plan for the flex positions in our leagues. The context is standard 5×5, 12 team, non-keeper roto leagues.

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So we’ve done a pretty thorough bludgeoning of the recent reader mock draft, looking at almost every round except for the fliers, and covering several of the positions along the way as well. Second base has me particularly concerned headed into 2012, so let’s break down how the readers handled the challenge of staffing their squads at that position.

The following chart is pretty self explanatory – where the player was selected in the reader mock, what their average draft position is over at Mock Draft Central, and the difference between the two to the right:

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As you well know by now, some dutiful readers of RotoGraphs took it upon themselves to virtually duke it out in an online mock draft, putting to test what we have repeatedly analyzed in the past several weeks — that is, just exactly where should we expect some of our favorite players to be taken?

There is of course a great deal of risk in relying solely on one source for your average draft positions, and while the draft was conducted in Mock Draft Central, having some well informed individuals making the selections instead of what could be third graders and well trained monkeys for all we know, provides us with a nice window for analysis.

For today, third base will be under the microscope.

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When Scott Boras and company decided they didn’t like the smell of the longer term offers Edwin Jackson was receiving and started kicking the tires on a one-year deal, it was almost tailor made for a team like the Washington Nationals.

They project well back of the Atlanta Braves, but after failing to acquire an impact bat, there were still a few wins to squeak out of a rotation spot at the expense of trotting John Lannan out there every fifth day. Three wins (which might be optimistic) might keep them hanging around long enough to keep their fan base excited throughout the summer and if the ball bounces their way more often than not, perhaps even flirt with a wild card birth.

And heck, even if the wheels fall off, Jackson should be pretty easy to unload at the trade deadline for some toolsy kind of kid few have heard of in Portland.

But Jackson has been rather sneaky-valuable in fantasy circles and according to Mock Draft Central, he’s being selected right around the 19th round in standard 12 team drafts, so he doesn’t come at a high price. Does this move to Washington help or hurt his fantasy value (assuming he passes the physical, of course)?

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In December, the Boston Red Sox traded Jed Lowrie to the Houston Astros, which presumably increased the value of Jed Lowrie, but also cemented Marco Scutaro as the team’s shortstop for 2012. Draft sheets were dutifully updated.

Rather inexplicably, the Red Sox recently traded said cemented shortstop to the Colorado Rockies which left a few scratching their heads and scouring Twitter to see if there was another hand to be played. After all, that left the Red Sox without a real natural shortstop and according to The Fielding Bible, shortstops are important.

Enter Mike Aviles.

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For those of you in a hurry, the likely answer is to this question is, ahem, no.

But this is such a curiously confounding signing for the Houston Astros that I feel rather compelled to give it a little digital ink.

So — yes, Jack Cust has just signed a one year deal with a club option for 2013, which happens to be the year the Astros will be moving to the American League West. Yes, this is the very Jack Cust who turned in the .213/.344/.329 line with three home runs over 270 plate appearances in Seattle. The same Jack Cust who was picked up by the Phillies and summarily released after six games. The same Jack Cust who historically has been a particularly terrible outfielder, so you have to wonder exactly how he’s going to be used in Houston.

Houston clearly sees some potential in him. Should you and your fantasy squad see the same?

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