Author Archive

John Jaso is Free

You’ve seen the news no doubt. The Mariners made, in language that I would use with my three year old when he smears macaroni and cheese goo all over my wool work pants, “a bad choice.” They jettisoned John Jaso and brought in Ryan Langerhans Mike Michael Morse. The fantasy impact has already been documented in these Rotographing pages. But I’d like to expand a little on Jaso.

First of all, the title has two meanings. One real, one fake (but alas, real to us nerds). It’s not breaking news to tell you that John Jaso was unappreciated in Seattle. He’s now going to a place where, if you believe the lip service, he’s going to be appreciated. One would have to assume that appreciation, coupled with expected on-field performance, will result in playing time. So John Jaso is freed from the Eric Wedge shackles, and chances are he’s just barely north of free in your fantasy leagues. For these two reasons, you should sit up a little more straight in your chair and push your glasses up off the end of your nose.

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The Nationals Crowded Stable

The playoff hangover must have been still lingering in Washington and Rafael Soriano is apparently the salve.

You could hear the cries of Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen owners all across the fantasy landscape when the news of the Nationals inking Soriano to a two year, pile of unnecessary cash deal, was announced. But there were apparently enough concerns over Storen’s health, his playoff meltdown versus the St. Louis Cardinals, and/or Tyler Clippards forgettable second half, that bringing in Soriano to put out fires was necessary.

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Edwin Encarnacion: Who Knew?

Edwin Encarnacion had a breakout that few predicted and he carried many a fantasy team with Pujolsian-like production for bargain basement prices. Since this is kind of what we do — that is, try to sniff out those back-of-the-draft goodies — one has to wonder if we all should have seen this coming.

Perhaps the reason Encarnacion gnaws at me so much is because I wrote his FanGraphs+ profile last year, and had this to say:

“…(B)ut if Encarnacion is going to play every day and he gets into the 550 at-bat range, you can bank on 20+ home runs, 70 RBI, and he should provide at least a respectable batting average. About 45% of his batted balls are fly balls, and his home run per fly ball rate dipped to 9.4% in 2011 whereas his career average is 11.9%. Should he see an uptick in HR/FB and his isolated slugging returns closer to his .200 career level (.181 in 2011), there’s certainly potential for more home runs here.”

So yeah, 20+ cough cough. At least I said “+”.

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Mock Draft Rounds 1-10: The Shortstops

As you are no doubt aware, a venerable group of fantasy baseball zealots enthusiasts participated recently in the self-titled Ridiculously Early Mock Draft, selecting a range of players to both laud and lambaste by you all. We presented you with the first five rounds last week, and I subsequently looked at the potential for third baseman among (and omitted from) that group. Now that we have rounds six through ten, I’ll present to you a similar analysis of their swifter counterparts to the left, the shortstops.

But first, the official list:

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Rotographs Mock Draft – Third Base Results

Looking at the recent ridiculously early mock draft from a stony selection of the Rotographs raconteurs, I was A) quite pleased that I didn’t participate and subject myself to the scrutiny of the learned readers here and B) struck by the fact that third base continues to give me the heebee jeebees.

Third base has generally been my beat over the last twelve months for Rotographs and the implications of the 2012 season haven’t helped me rest well when thinking about the hot corner. While this year might welcome Chase Headley to the fantasy super-duper we also saw the departure of Jose Bautista due to eligibility, Kevin Youkilis due to Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez to the girl in the fourth row, and Michael Young to relevance.

And this gives me pause.

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Don’t Forget Hisashi Iwakuma

You probably had to own Hisashi Iwakuma to really appreciate how helpful he was down the fantasy baseball stretch in 2012. Iwakuma flew under the radar perhaps because he was pitching for a team that was taking a wet noodle approach to their youngsters by mid-July, already trying to figure out who might stick in 2013. Iwakuma, in real baseball, was largely ignorable. But in looking ahead at 2013, he might warrant your attention in fantasy baseball.

Iwakuma pitched in in 30 games and posted a 3.16 ERA (4.35 FIP) with a real affinity for giving up home runs, a ho-hum 8.3% walk rate and an equally thrilling 19.5% strikeout rate. If that were the story right there, you could move on to, I don’t know, Ervin Santana in hopes of solving your starting pitching problems on the cheap.

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Change of Scenery Suits Zack Greinke

Zack Greinke has been among the top tier of starting pitchers going on five seasons now, and yet he remains somewhat mercurial. Taken as a whole, his body of work as a starter in this time span is no doubt outstanding, ranking 5th in WAR behind Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, and C.C. Sabathia. But in fantasy baseball, some of Greinke’s inconsistencies lends a degree of trepidation when it comes to the cost associated with acquiring a pitcher of his caliber.

Looking back on 2012, the arithmetical acumen of one Zach Sanders says that Zack Greinke was worth only $15 bones relative to the rest of the starting pack in standard 5×5 roto. Why? Much of it is wrapped up in his ERA and WHIP, which were the highest of any pitcher with 200 strikeouts not named Yu Darvish or Max Scherzer. In real baseball terms, Greinke was spectacular — but in a traditional rotisserie league, you probably could have gotten the same production for less investment.

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The King Seeks Re-Election

Felix Hernandez has been pretty terrific since his arrival in 2005, but over the past four years he’s been awfully special. Despite playing for mediocre, even terrible, teams, Hernandez has provided the elusive anchor that fantasy managers pay so dearly for. And although he’s changing as a pitcher, he continues to baffle opposing hitters, very much earning the title King.

As you well know by know, we’re doing the rear view mirror thing by position recently, using the mojo of Zach Sanders and his abacus to help us quantify 2012 values. In that lens, he has Hernandez valued at about 21 bucks in relation to all the other starting pitchers you might have trotted out there over the course of the season. Chances are, many of you paid a good sum more than $21, or perhaps a draft pick that would reflect a more sizable investment, but that’s not to say his contributions weren’t worth it to your squad.

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Shane Victorino to Rebound in Boston?

Still pending the turn-and-cough from the team trainer, the Boston Red Sox have apparently come to a handshake agreement with Shane Victorino on a three year, $39 million dollar contract. The dollar figure is irrelevant to fantasy mavens, but the scenery is. Though typically more valuable in real baseball than fantasy, Victorino has certainly been solid contributor over a half dozen seasons in the major leagues, and it’s worth wondering if we can expect a bounce back season, if only in the short-term.

But let’s start with what we know. In fantasy circles, Victorino was handy because he was good for 30-plus steals, he got on base, scored runs, and wasn’t a black hole in the power department either. In standard leagues, you wanted Victorino as a second or third outfielder. He was a complementary piece, not a put-your-team-on-his-back kind of bat. But last season proved to be a disappointment for fantasy owners.

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Michael Saunders Makes Good

It’s not like George Peppard is standing in front of his GMC with a stubby cigar in his mouth mumbling something about a plan coming together, but the Seattle Mariners must think something similar when it comes to Michael Saunders. After three failed experiments at the Major League level, Saunders, 26, finally showed some of the promise the club hoped for as early as 2007.

Over 553 plate appearances, Saunders hit 19 home runs, stole 21 bases, hitting 31 doubles and three triples. His .247/.306/.432 line could use some improvement but there were enough positives in his 2012 season that Saunders stands towards the front of the line of post-hype sleepers coming into 2013.

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