There are two positions clearly occupied in the Detroit Tiger outfield but there’s one very much up for grabs. The clear starter in center is Austin Jackson and the obvious starter in right is Torii Hunter. Neither will be subject to platoons and you should expect to see both of them in the lineup just about every day, given good health. Left field however has some fairly interesting possibilities relative to your fantasy squad.
The Pittsburgh Pirates squeezed about as much value out of A.J. Burnett, James McDonald, Kevin Correia, and Jeff Karstens as possible in 2012, yet their team ERA- was still worse than league average. Correia is out, and Francisco Liriano is in, and now of course they get Wandy Rodriguez for a full season. So things look kinda alright for Pirates fans. But from a fantasy perspective, there are a couple opportunities, a couple landmines, and maybe a position battle still to be watched.
A.J. Burnett is the ostensible leader of this crew after his impressive re-emergence as a good fantasy option after the debacle in New York. His strikeout rate crept back up over 21%, the first time in three years, and his walk rate was just about the best it has been in his career at a fairly stingy 7.3%. In standard 5×5 leagues, Burnett was really quite valuable – he had a decent ERA (3.51), he won games (16), and he had a respectable WHIP (1.24).
The Pittsburgh Pirates enter 2013 with higher expectations than what we’re probably used to. They are, after all, the same Pirates that haven’t had a winning record since before there was anything called the National League Central division (1992) and their 79 wins in 2012 matched their best season in fifteen years. So the bar might not be set terribly high. But after starting the season 47-38, there is residual optimism left over, and much of it is wrapped up in some of the great young talent they will feature in 2013. And the Pirate outfield happens to be one of the bright spots.
This past Winter, the Seattle Mariners were linked to Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, Melky Cabrera (sort of), Andre Ethier, and Justin Upton, among a handful of others. Their anemic 2012 offense and the vacancy of a corner outfield slot in their lineup pretty much guaranteed they would be kicking the proverbial tires on any outfielder available. What they wound up adding amounts to a reclamation project and a couple of designated hitters. But for fantasy purposes, the Mariner outfield presents a couple of interesting possibilities that you ought to keep an eye on.
When I look at the Seattle Mariners projected pitching rotation, the 1987 Chicago Bulls leap to mind. Except Felix Hernandez really doesn’t even have a Charles Oakley behind him. And I guess that makes Joe Saunders Dave Corzine. Two sentences and a digression already. The fact is, the Seattle Mariners have a bonafide star, and then they have what amount to a gaggle of #4 starters and then a handful of question marks.
I don’t need to tell you much about Felix Hernandez. I have a suspicion that this whole MRI-elbowgate thing relative to his record-setting contract might move him down a slot or two for the suspicious type. And yes, I’ll be curious about his velocity in Spring Training. But chances are, you’ll be able to comfortably hang your hat on The King to carry your staff should you be fortunate enough to procure his services. From there, it gets kind of interesting.
There’s $53.5 million dollars wrapped up in the Los Angeles Dodger outfield and between Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, the starting trio is about as solid as a soup sandwich.
All it really takes is for things to go right and those three occupy the respective outfield slots for the duration. But we know what we know. Specifically, that Carl Crawford is fragile and his performance since signing his $142 million dollar contract has been decidedly underwhelming. We know that Matt Kemp is coming off October labrum surgery not to mention repair of a “minor debridement” of the rotator cuff, which sounds like couples counseling in his shoulder. And we know that Andre Ethier mashes in April, becomes enigmatic, and all the while he can’t hit left handed pitchers. It’s not particularly confidence inspiring when you read that two of the three outfielders are currently focused on getting ready for Opening Day but not necessarily Spring Training. This, it seems, makes their outfield depth chart particularly important heading into the season.
They say adversity creates opportunity, whoever “they” are. But there’s likely no group that appreciates that quite as much as fantasy baseball mavens. With Chris Carpenter apparently headed for the disabled list, potentially aeternum, there’s an obvious trickle down effect on the St. Louis Cardinals rotation. The immediate beneficiaries are likely to be some combination of Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, and/or Shelby Miller.
What we know is the Cardinals still have Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia. What we don’t know is how healthy Garcia is after having his ailing shoulder derail his ability to pitch in the playoffs this past season. But uncertainty about Garcia only further cements Lance Lynn in the rotation. Lynn, as you’ll recall, was bounced from rotation to bullpen after he started to get shelled in August. It wasn’t entirely clear if they wanted to use Lynn as a potent setup man for Jason Motte or if they planned for him to start games. With Carpenter down, they probably get their answer whether they wanted it or not.
There many of us here in the electronic series of tubes who don’t pay for closers. That is, we either literally don’t pay big money in auctions or we don’t pay with a precious fifth/sixth/seventh round pick, what have you. But regardless of your perspective on the drafting of closers, we can all probably agree that many a fantasy team has been immediately buoyed by the acquisition, pouncing on, stashing of, the future closer. Headed into 2013, there are a few closer situations with seemingly defined roles, although the hold might be tenuous.
One of the things I’ll be watching this Spring is how the Seattle Mariners are using Charlie Furbush and what kind of results Blake Beavan and Hector Noesi are getting. If you listen to the organizational talking heads, it really seems to suggest that the rotation going into the season will be Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez, Beavan, and Noesi. As a Mariner fan, that should depress the hell out of you, but as far as fantasy baseball is concerned, Charlie Furbush is probably way more talented than the two at the back end of the rotation.
In the aftermath of the Justin Upton trade lies the messy entrails of fantasy baseball detail. Relative to third base, since the end of the 2012 season, the Atlanta Braves have gone from future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones to steady Martin Prado to Juan Francisco and a current Hall of Famer. That’s right, Chris Johnson is in the Stetson University Hall of Fame, and don’t you forget it.
As fantasy baseball goes, this probably helps Martin Prado but it muddies the water quite a bit in Atlanta unless you think Juan Francisco is going to hit like he currently is in the Caribbean at .307/.369/.575. But with Johnson coming over with Upton, the situation draws the potential for the dreaded platoon, which can effectively murder any value a player might have at a position. With this in mind, should you have Chris Johnson (and?) or Juan Francisco on your draft radar screen?