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The Balance Between Called Strikes and Chase

Sep 15, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Brendon Little (54) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays in the sixth inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

In early June, Alex Chamberlain graced us with a FanGraphs article about Brendon Little and a new concept called, “Implied Miss Distance”. Chamberlain, along with Baseball Prospectus writer/researcher Stephen Sutton-Brown, have done some great work utilizing Statcast bat tracking data, giving readers a new perspective on something like a swing and miss. But, back in early July, nearly a month after Chamberlain wrote about Little’s amazing knuckle-curve and it’s ability to make hitters whiff so hard that the outfield flag flutters, hitters stopped chasing the pitch. They were tired of looking silly and would no longer budge, allowing us to imply nothing:

A Rolling Line Chart of Brendon Little's O-Swing% 2025

If it wasn’t for Chamberlain’s article, I wouldn’t have known about Little or his knuckle-curve. But that’s why FanGraphs is the best, and when I recently watched the Blue Jays and their relievers’ deteriorating August WHIP, I heard the broadcasters mention Little’s falling O-Swing, or chase, rate.

If you only focused on Little’s knuckle-curve and the damage hitters have done to it in each month of the season, as you see in the table below, you wouldn’t think twice about the pitch’s performance:

Little’s Knuckle Curve by Month 2025
Month KC Total Pitches KC% wOBA
Mar/Apr 96 218 44.0% .194
May 111 229 48.5% .176
Jun 119 243 49.0% .212
Jul 103 193 53.4% .192
Aug 76 193 39.4% .146
Sep/Oct 51 119 42.9% .257

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 knuckle curves in any of the last five seasons, Little’s 2025 wOBA of .188 is a fringe top 20 (25th) out of nearly 200 pitchers. Last season, Little got even closer to the top 20 mark (23rd) with a .186 wOBA on the pitch. But the broadcast never said anything about Little getting hit; they were focused on the lack of chase and, therefore, an increased BB%:

A rolling chart of Brendon Little's Chase%/BB% 2025

The chart above includes all of Little’s pitches. By isolating the O-Swing% to only his knuckle-curve, we can see that this overall drop in hitters’ chasing after Little’s offerings wasn’t solely because of them spitting at that specific pitch:

A rolling chart of Brendon Little's Knuckle-Curve Chase% 2025

Thanks to the incredible addition of the Pitch-Type Split Leaderboard by the FanGraphs web team, we can now view the averages of individual pitches with ease. In 2025, among all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 knuckle curves, the league average O-Swing% currently sits at 35.5%. Little’s mark on the season is 36.5%. Rolling averages are different from season averages, and when Little’s chase rate rolling average dipped, so did the chase rolling average of his two other pitches:

A rolling chart of Brendon Little's Individual Pitch Chase% 2025

Chart 4 – Rolling KC, FC, SI Chase% Comps

The straight red line indicates times when Little stopped throwing his cutter. It’s interesting to see how the line stopped running horizontally around the same time his knuckle-curve was at its worst. Unfortunately, it didn’t fill the chased pitch gap, and that 40-50 game mark fell around early to mid-July when Little’s WHIP went upwards:

Brendon Little’s Monthly Splits (All Pitches)
Month KC% WHIP K-BB%
Mar/Apr 44.3 1.31 26.8
May 48.5 0.98 17.3
Jun 49.0 1.42 15.7
Jul 53.4 1.60 21.3
Aug 39.4 1.65 0.0
Sep/Oct 42.9 1.65 10.0

Hitters weren’t getting boosted wOBA’s from Little’s lack of chase, but the 1.65 WHIP  (5.97 eqiuv. ERA) meant they were hitting his other pitches and walking more. I’ve been rambling on about Little for more than a few paragraphs now, and you’re probably waiting for the point. The point? The point is, pitchers need to adjust when a pitch that used to be chased no longer gets chased. They know that. We know that. Yet, it’s difficult to keep track of on the fan side of things. Pitchers will go about adjusting in all sorts of ways.

In Little’s case, it was really just a blip. If you go back up to the graph showing individual pitch chase rates, you may notice that Little’s usage of the cutter, even if it wasn’t chased, allowed the chase rate on his knuckle-curve to jump back up. Hitters did a great job of laying off Little’s knuckle-curve from around games 30 to 70, but excellence is when a pitcher can adjust in the moment to hitters. That’s robotic. So, let’s!…get!…robotic! For the remainder of this article, I’ll present a detection system that can run daily to capture when a pitcher’s most used fastball and most used secondary are in good or bad rhythm using individual pitch plate discipline metrics. Here’s an example from Little’s 40 to 80 game span:

Categorizing Brendon Little’s Plate Discipline Balance
Game Number Rolling_CStr%_SI Rolling_Chase%_KC Performance
41-50 26.8 23.4 Ok (Adjusting)
51-60 21.1 25.8 Bad
61-73 16.9 21.8 Bad
SI Median CStr% = 24.5%
KC Median Chase% = 26.8%

The table is just a summary of what you see in Chart 4 above, but it’s designed to be placed in an automated system. If chase is up on one pitch and called strike is up on another, that’s good. If both pitches are falling to generate either chase or called strikes, well, that’s bad. Categorizing the balance between his sinker’s called strike rate and his knuckle-curve’s chase rate is as simple as creating rule-based logic:

conditions = [
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%']-3 > final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%']-3 > final_df['smart_median_cstr']),
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%'] <= final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%'] >= final_df['smart_median_cstr']),
(final_df['Rolling_Chase%']+3 < final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%']+3 < final_df['smart_median_cstr']), (final_df['Rolling_Chase%'] >= final_df['smart_median_chase']) & (final_df['Rolling_CStr%'] <= final_df['smart_median_cstr'])
]
# Define the corresponding categories
categories = [
'Excellent',
'Ok (Adjusting)',
'Bad',
'Ok (Adjusting)'
]

Using the pitcher’s median values allows the categorization to detect improvements by each individual. I’m using “smart” medians to call the league median if a player has a zero value. That happens when they haven’t generated any chase or called strikes. If we use Brendon Little’s game logs to isolate his performance during those game periods from the table above, we see some pattern in a very small sample:

Brendon Little’s Overall Performance in Small Samples
Game Number WHIP K-BB%
41-50 0.91 32.3%
51-60 2.10 0.0%
61-73 1.33 15.4%

Little was at his best when he was in decent balance. This is the type of tracking that could be useful when streaming pitchers or looking for hot relievers. To test this out on a grander scale, I built a dataset that includes data from the last two months. This keeps the sample limited to more recent performance. Furthermore, I limited the data to only pitchers with more than 60 total pitches thrown in that time. Then, I took each pitcher’s most utilized fastball by pitch percentage and used it to calculate their called strike rate. I did the same with each pitcher’s most utilized offspeed, or non-fastball, pitch and used it to calculate their chase rate. I then calculated each pitch’s 15-game rolling rate, called strike for fastballs and chase for non-fastballs, and labelled their performance balance. Finally, I counted the number of days in which a player has been either good (balanced) or bad (unbalanced) and found the current status of players in both groups:

Players With Excellent Balance
Player Rolling CStr% Rolling Chase% Days of Excellence
Emilio Pagán 14.4 31.7 5
Dennis Santana 32.1 24.3 2
Tanner Scott 14.0 22.3 2
Jared Koenig 32.2 22.0 3
Yerry De los Santos 21.7 20.0 2

Players With Poor Balance
Player Rolling_CStr% Rolling_Chase% Days of Poor Performance
David Robertson 7.7 12.9 -16
Carlos Hernández 0.0 4.0 -2
Trey Yesavage 23.1 16.2 -1
Joe Rock 31.8 18.5 -1
Andrew Hoffmann 12.8 0.0 -2

The results focus on a pitcher’s most recent stretch. For example, Emilio Pagán has had one of his best K-BB% (22.4%) marks of his career this season, and in his last five games, it’s been even better (26.3%). He’s had recent success thanks to his four-seam and splitter working in unison.

Is there more to do? Always. I’ve only compared fastball called strike rates with offspeed chase rates, but all of these plate discipline metrics could be compared for balance. For example, it may be better to have a balanced swinging strike rate and chase rate. But, fundamental to this analysis is the assumption that it’s hard to get anywhere without a fastball and offspeed pitch that work well together. Does it mean anything? Is the balance even predictive of future success? Maybe, maybe not. What it certainly can do, as I believe I’ve exemplified here, is explain a pitcher’s success or lack thereof. If you are interested in doing this analysis on your own without spending hours calling and pinging pybaseball’s API, you can view pitch-specific plate discipline metrics on our new and totally awesome Pitch-Type Splits Leaderboards. Stay balanced, stay cool.


Ottoneu Hot Right Now: September 24, 2025

Sep 10, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Tyler Wells (68) walks off of the field during the seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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Ottoneu Cold Right Now: September 18, 2025

Sep 13, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants center fielder Luis Matos (29) runs towards home before scoring a run against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the fifth inning at Oracle Park.
Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Cold Right Now: September 11, 2025

Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Hot Right Now: September 3, 2025

Aug 30, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Baltimore Orioles third baseman Jeremiah Jackson (82) takes a swig of water from the ceremonial sprinkler after hitting a two-run home run against the San Francisco Giants during the third inning at Oracle Park.
Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Lefty Trend, But For Fantasy

Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

There are many ways in which a person can enter a rabbit hole. Some dive straight in. They clap their hands together, give them a little rub, and dive. Others fall in, like a pedestrian walking headfirst into big red flashing “Don’t Cross Right Now” hand signage while staring at their phone with hard-wired headphones getting tangled all up in the obliviousness. This is the story of how one can fall into a lefty versus righty rabbit hole, somewhere between diver and pedestrian.

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Ottoneu Hot Right Now: August 28, 2025

Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »


Platoon Hitters to Target In the Final Stretch

Aug 16, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Davis Schneider (36) hits a single against the Texas Rangers during the the second inning at Rogers Centre.
Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Rostering hitters who only hit against one type of pitcher can be challenging. You must pay extra attention in a world where paying extra attention is the only way to win. So there you have it. In this article, we’ll pay extra attention to playing time patterns to see if we can find a few sneaky additions who may add a handful of dingers to our fantasy pile before the season is over.

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Ottoneu Cold Right Now: August 20, 2025

Aug 16, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt (12) takes the ball from starting pitcher Slade Cecconi (44) during a pitching change in the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Progressive Field.
Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:

  1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
  2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
  3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »


You’ve Been Ambushed…Now What?

Jul 26, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) pitches in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park.
Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The word “Issue” and the name “Tarik Skubal” haven’t been used in the same sentence very often in 2025. The Detroit Tigers’ lefty is the clear frontrunner for winning the Cy Young award at the end of the season. However, back in May, hitters began ambushing Skubal, knowing their best chance of even being graced with a ball in play was on the first pitch. Read the rest of this entry »