Author Archive

Ottoneu: Shopping in the Bargain Bin (Senzel, Toro)

Below replacement level. Worth zero dollars. Heck, worth negative dollars if you roster the player. At least replacement-level players are worth $1. But, below replacement-level? That’s a tough sell. Some players are expected, projected even, to do worse than any other player available at any point in time during the season. So why write about them here?

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Visualize It: Positional Value by Draft Round

Are you the “keep it quick bud, I gotta two o’clock Zoom meeting and I still need to comb my hair” type of fantasy reader? If so, this post is for you. A real quick hitter that explains how the draft value is spread across draft rounds. Read the rest of this entry »


Pitchers Who Pitch to Their VAA

When something becomes sexy, I’m all in. Crocs and socks? Sexy. Minivans with a built-in vacuum cleaner to suck up all the floor Cheerios? Sexy. Throwing a four-seam fastball with a very shallow vertical approach angle due to some serious induced vertical break at the top of the zone? Sexy. Some things some people just can’t pull off. But when a trend becomes a trend, you’re either in or you’re out.

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Ottoneu: Using the Roster Organizer

Fellow league mate: Are you interested in J-Ram?

Me: Yes, of course. J-Ram rules!

With the cut deadline looming (January 31st, 11:59 PM) many Ottoneu managers are probably in similar situations. Rather than cutting players to slim down maxed-out budgets, some are looking to make trades that will bring back the players they want without having to compete at the auction. This is one of the many beauties of Ottoneu. As all other fantasy leaguers are only focused on drafting, Ottoneu managers can wheel and deal all through the winter.  This article will detail a few ways the player organizer can be useful when analyzing your team going into the keeper deadline.

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The Fujinami Conundrum

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Just 15 pitchers threw 10 or more 101+ MPH four-seam fastballs in 2024.

There are a lot of pitchers who throw fast and only 15 find themselves qualifying here as repeatable flame throwers. Jhoan Duran did it 368 times! Behind him was Félix Bautista who anyone would guess can throw the ball fast after one glance at La Montaña. But, Shintaro Fujinami? He’s on the list? He’s a free agent? Surely some team could use a guy like that. So, why hasn’t any team ventured a bid on a reliever whose fastball velocity ranks in the 97th percentile?

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Ottoneu: Ryan Mountcastle, Points Above Replacement, and Why You Should Wait Until the Last Minute to Make Your Cuts

I don’t really want to cut Ryan Mountcastle. I think he’s a good first baseman. I’m an Orioles fan so I’m biased. If he got traded I’d be sad, but I would be happy for him. Happy for him? Yes, happy for him. The new dimensions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards have been unkind. Imagine being an aeroplane pilot and showing up to work one day being asked to fly a helicopter. That’s what happened to Ryan Mountcastle. Read the rest of this entry »


The Market and Me: Comparing My 3B Ranks to ADP

The RotoGraphs writers’ positional rankings hit the World Wide Web last week and now such writers, perhaps only myself, are questioning every little keyboard stroke and mouse click involved. You can view my third-base rankings here and follow along all season. I didn’t look at the average draft position (ADP) as calculated by the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) while sorting these men who spent at least five games with their feet close to third base last season.

I mostly used the auction calculator with Steamer’s projections and moved things around from there, but only slightly. Take Elly De La Cruz for example. By the auction calculator, he’s ranked 14th (check the link above for settings). I brought him up a few (11th), first knowing the market would be higher and second considering his ceiling. But, as it turns out, the market is even higher on the Cincinnati wonder kid! In this post, I’ll dive into the players who diverge the most from my rankings and where the market (ADP) is so far this draft season.

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Ottoneu: Lucas’ Keep or Cut Decisions at SP

“Good pitching beats good hitting.” I think Casey Stengel said that. The replacement level for a starting pitcher in Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues is 4.55 P/IP. I said that. What is “good pitching?” from a fantasy baseball standpoint in a very specific format? Well, there are many inputs you can add to the calculation to help answer that question. In this post, I’ll analyze four starting (or expected to be starting) pitchers who I have to make keep or cut decisions on, and soon!

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Why Is Mason Miller So High?

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Did you load up the auction calculator a few weeks ago and see Mason Miller listed as the 20th-best starter? Load it up again today, and you’ll only see Miller on the relievers page. That’s because Miller’s 2024 role is hard to pin down. Last year, the year Miller made his debut, the young right-hander in Oakland started six games and appeared in relief in four. As a starter, he recorded a 3.70 ERA and as a reliever, 4.00. So after only 33.1 IP in 2023 without a clear role defined, what’s a fantasy manager to do?

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Surprise Early Rounder Hitters: Adolis Garcia, Royce Lewis, & CES

Last week I analyzed a few players who stood out to me in a mock draft due to their early selection. Whenever this happens, I like to dig in to see what I can learn. This week I’ll keep the party going with three more offensive players I was surprised to see going so early.

*NOTE: All ADP values come from The NFBC, where there have been 61 drafts as of this writing.

OF – Adolis García (ADP: 44.30, Min: 24, Max: 65)

The auction calculator has the Texas outfielder ranked as the 17th-best player at the position. In front of him are tried and true players like George Springer, Bryan Reynolds, and Randy Arozarena. He is also the 46th-best batter overall according to the calculator, so pick 44 isn’t too far off if you assume no pitchers are selected in the first four rounds, but that would be unusual. It seems to me that the price is close to being right but still a little inflated by recency bias from the 2023 playoffs where García hit eight home runs, the most of any player in the postseason. He also slashed .323/.382/.726 while striking out 26.5% of the time. García’s BB% regressed to his typical in the playoffs, but his K% decreased. Take a look:

Adolis García Stats and Projections
Season BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
2021 5.1% 31.2% .243 .286 .454
2022 6.1% 27.9% .250 .300 .456
2023 10.3% 27.7% .245 .328 .508
2023 Postseason 4.4% 26.5% .323 .382 .726
2024 Steamer Proj 8.1% 28.6% .241 .308 .457

It would be unreasonable to assume García will hit anywhere over .250 in 2024 or that he will strike out under 26% of the time. This is a great example of Steamer predicting regression. The table also shows a perfect example of a player who went galactic in the playoffs, it happens. Remember when Randy Arozarena hit 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason? The comparison is not an apples-to-apples one by any means, but it’s at least orange to clementine:

Randy Arozarena Stats
Season BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
2020 7.9% 28.9% 0.281 0.382 0.641
2020 Postseason 9.3% 22.1% 0.377 0.442 0.831
2021 9.3% 28.1% 0.274 0.356 0.459

I’m not implying that it’s as simple as “Randy Arozarena came back down to earth and so will Adolis García.” Arozarena broke out in that incredible 2020 postseason run and then went 20-20 in 2021 with a .274/.356/.459 slash line. But there’s more data on García than there was on Arozarena when making projections after both of their big postseason performances and I think Steamer has it right.

One last thing to point out is that while García could certainly record over 30 knocks in 2024, he may not be stealing the 13 bases Steamer projects. He only recorded nine in 2023 after recording 25 in 2022. That power/speed threat is what bumped García’s value up in years past and I don’t think the adjustment has been made for 2024. The Rangers, whether due to Bruce Bochy’s arrival or not, stole far fewer bags in 2023 than in years past:

2021: 106 -> 2022: 128 -> 2023: 79

Adolis García is a great pick and the error bars on his 2024 projection likely aren’t very wide. Still, those projections include negative regression and if someone drafting before you wants to disregard that, let them.

3B – Royce Lewis (ADP: 43.08, Min: 15, Max: 110)

Imagine someone told you there is a young third baseman who is projected for 28 home runs, 13 steals, and a .269/.336/.481 slash line and his name is not Gunnar Henderson. They told you he has recorded only 239 major league plate appearances, but they were good ones, and he hit 15 home runs, stole six bases, and slashed .309/.372/.548. Oh, and that when he made it to the major leagues, he struck out just barely above league average, 23.0% (league average: 22.7%). You would be frothing! Now, imagine someone told you this player is projected for 617 plate appearances by Steamer even though he’s never even recorded half of that before, and you’d become skeptical. Scroll through his NBC Sports Injury Page and you’ll become even more so. You don’t have to read much more, you could just listen to Sleeper and the Bust and hear them discuss Lewis’ ceiling appeal, but injury risk floor. Even still, here are some data points to prepare you for seeing his early ADP during your draft prep:

  • His auction calculator position rank is 5th behind Manny Machado and in front of Yandy Díaz.
  • He did not slug anywhere south of .500 in AA, AAA, or the major leagues in 2023.
  • He worked fastballs for a 7.6 pVal (PitchInfo), sliders for 5.7, and only really struggled against the curveball (-3.5).
  • He is the everyday third baseman for the Twins and is projected to bat second

What’s not to like? Well…the injury risk. “But, what’s not to like about candy?”, the dentist asks you as the drill starts up and goes “zzziirrmmhmmm!!!”

1B – Christian Encarnacion-Strand (ADP: 127.75, Min: 74, Max: 225)

There are so many young players going in early rounds this season offseason. It feels like more than usual. But with players like Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, Michael Harris II, and Bobby Witt Jr. seeming like sure shots in 2024, why not? The game has skewed young the past few years and it’s not hard to believe that CES can continue the trend. However, who do you think played the most games at first base for the Reds last season?!

Games Started at First Base – Cincinnati Reds (2023)

Joey Votto’s option was declined for a reason, the Reds have some depth at first. But who will stick there defensively? Ok, you win RosterResource, Steer moves to left field and CES takes third. Fine! Is he good enough offensively to stick? He slashed .270/.328/.477 in 63 major league games in 2023 and is expected by Steamer to slash it again (.271/.329/.491). Steamer is lower on his playing time than it is with Royce Lewis (above). CES’s 130-game projection is not a 162-game projection and the difference makes me nervous. He did strike out 28.6% of the time in the major leagues, his base running (BsR) and defense (Def) produced negative numbers, and he walked only .2 times for every time he struck out. Even still, his actual stats didn’t lie:

  • AVG: .270 xAVG: .268
  • SLG: .477 xSLG: .476
  • wOBA: .346 xwOBA: .347

Ok, so what’s his specialty? Power? Speed? Batting average? None, really, but that’s why he’s the 11th-best first baseman for 2024 according to our auction calculator. He does a little bit of everything, or at least, he’s expected to.