Three weeks ago, fellow rotographs contributor Trey Baughn looked at some ways to approach discussing trades. At the time, your league may not have entered the selling/buying stage of the season, but as we move into June, it is likely that some teams who labeled themselves “competitors” for 2016 have begun to change their tune. So much can change in three weeks – with the line between a competitive and non-competitive team being more clearly established. Several teams in your league(s) have probably made the move to sell (or buy) already. As a fellow owner of a competitive team, it can be very frustrating to watch your rivals scoop up top talent while you’re left sitting on your hands. In these circumstances, you can be best served to take some initiative, act quickly, and not second guess yourself.

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One of the useful things about Ottoneu is its integration with the Fangraphs leaderboards.  I’m on the leaderboards here constantly as is, so the ability to use them, while having data specific to a fantasy league is an added bonus of the format. One of the filter’s I find myself using often on the leaderboards is the “Last 14 Day” filter. This is admittedly a smaller sample than anyone should use to make significant decisions, but I like to use this filter to help isolate players – especially pitchers – who have had recent hot streaks.  Ottoneu uses large 40 man rosters, so often I will use the last few roster spots to preemptively buy some of these early hot streaks. Especially if you’re a first place team – or a team near the top of the standings – you are will lose any tie-breaks on free-agent auctions so being the first team to buy into a player (or auction a player) can be key to keeping reinforcements on your bench in the event of an injury.  Today, we’ll look at several pitchers who are near the top of the current “Last 14 Day” leaderboard and look at a couple lessons we can learn from this group.

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In early March, I wrote about my first co-ownership experience with fellow Rotographs contributor Trey Baughn. To refresh, we have been paired up in a newly formed Ottoneu league which has added on a 5milb draft system and coupon incentive structure to reward higher finishes. Ottoneu leagues can be difficult as is – the structures in place have made this league feel more difficult than others.

Last month I touched on a couple key observations from our first few weeks of co-owning.

• Ottoneu auctions are easier with two people.
• Finding a co-owner with a compatible skill set is essential for the process to run smoothly.
• Communication is key.
• Roster moves are more difficult when you have to manage two sets of opinions.

I still agree with each of these points, but it was the beginning of March.  The season hadn’t started. Many trades had not been made, and most of the roster moves we had made had very minimal impact. Much has changed…

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In Ottoneu, like any fantasy format, small sample sizes to begin the season drastically impact the standings. The team with the worst pitching in your league has probably allowed more homers than expected. While the team in last place has likely has pitched the fewest innings. It’s easy to blow off these types of starts due the unsustainable performances that aren’t likely to continue (or to front-loading innings). I thought it would be fun to take a different approach today. So let’s play a game…

The rules: Pick 5 SP, total salaries for this rotation of $30 or less based on Ottoneu average values (round up $1 dollar). No picks with an average salary over $12. Arbitrary limitations, I know.

The goal: Build a 5 man rotation assuming you can bank all points that have occurred thus far with the goal of accumulating the most Fangraphs points by seasons end. Let’s make some picks.

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I find early season performances fascinating (or perhaps it’s our responses to these performances that’s fascinating.) With every owner competitive and paying attention in April – maybe for the only time all year – league wide perception of talent levels can be unrealistically altered. For example, Trevor Story hits 7 home runs in his first 8 games, then precedes to hit .200 over his next 60 plate appearances. That’s about as stark a difference as you can find in a player’s performances this early in the season. Given this, how do your league-mates value him? My wager is that they value him more as the 7 HR guy that the .200 hitter, but that’s just a guess. Would the view of Story be different if those 7 HR in 8 games occurred in July?

This is all hypothetical conjecture on my part, but it does help to show the crazy swings in performance that occur over small samples. If a player (especially a prospect) has a hot start, their trade value can be boosted by that helium all year. However, some hot starts still fall through the cracks, and many players who have performed well can still be bought relatively cheaply. Hopefully this will help you consider buying some of the players who’ve had great starts to 2016. Some of them appear to have made core improvements thus far.

One of the updates I run weekly is to look at the plate discipline and batted ball leaderboards here on Fangraphs. I look for players who are swinging less than last year, while also making more contact. Eno covered some of this in his post last week, but this early in the season it can be difficult to have enough data to make any concrete conclusions about player performances. A disclaimer – at the time I wrote this I didn’t realize how similar it was to Eno’s analysis. His piece goes into more detail and you should definitely read it.

The general premise: I want to find players who are being more patient than last year, but are also making contact at a higher rate. I also track changes in hard hit percentage, but admit that I don’t focus on this nearly as much. I plan to start incorporating exit velocity and launch angle, but have not been able to at this point. This is far from a full proof method or some statistical wizardry, but it’s a quick sniff test. Given that swing% becomes reliable around 50 PAs, and contact rate around 100 PAs, I would put a little more weight on those numbers at this time. I use this to help me bid in the early season Ottoneu FA auctions, or to help target players in trades. The last thing I want to do is waste precious dollars or trade assets on what is likely to be a mirage. (This is probably more important in Ottoneu than other formats where cap penalties can hamstring you if you aren’t careful). Anyways, here’s the list of all players swinging less, making more contact, and hitting the ball with a higher hard hit frequency in 2016. Read the rest of this entry »

We are one week (mostly!) through the baseball season. In Ottoneu, this specific period of time feels more gut-wrenching than in other fantasy sports formats. I have no facts to support this – maybe it’s the negative points players can score? – other than noting that when multiple -4 scores come in from Russell Martin, or you see Greinke put up a -30 line, it is easy to feel like the most desirable outcome is to lay at the bottom of a large body of water. Ottoneu can be a difficult game, and (especially) if you have any idea of the points thresholds it takes to win, it can feel even more daunting to see your squad trudging along. However, it is important to remember that the season is VERY long, and that every team will have several bad weeks. During this period of the season, it is easy to overreact and make a rash move to counteract a poor start. Everyone wants  to own Trevor Story when everything he hits is a home run. Meanwhile, a Michael Pineda owner might be a little more fearful about how this coming season will go after his -14pt start against Houston.

In the midst of this, you may start to see some trades in your leagues that could give you pause. Ottoneu has many variables which play into trades that are often ignored in standard fantasy leagues (salaries, loans, dynasty, etc.) so sometimes you can see a deal pass through your league that looks a little strange (even if not on the basis of talent being exchanged). Today I want to highlight some of these trades and also take a little time to echo patience if you are considering selling off – especially if you are in a brand new league, it’s far too early. Let’s look at some interesting trades from the past week! Read the rest of this entry »

If you are new to Ottoneu, one of the first things you’ll realize is that the list of rostered players is deep. One strategy that these larger rosters allow for is the ability to platoon players. While this strategy isn’t too useful with 25 man rosters, it’s perfect for the 40 man rosters of Ottoneu.  Many teams utilize it in some capacity, but it can also lead to certain pitfalls. Let’s review a couple guidelines to platooning

1.) Target good home parks and left handed hitters

The goal in using a player in a platoon situation is to maximize your Points Per Game (P/G) by starting them in favorable situations. Unlike a major league team, you do not need to pair hitters who kill left and right handed pitching respectively. Instead, focus on platoons which are likely to yield a high number of usable games.  (This is very important as meeting the game cap greatly increases your chances of success.) The two most common splits I find myself building platoons off of are home/road splits and left/right splits. In these scenarios, I am targeting players who play in favorable home parks or perform well against righties.

A couple players who I plan to use in these types of platoons in 2016 include (vRHP) Chris Coghlan, Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick, and (@Home) Ben Paulsen.  There are plenty of other options as well! Coghlan, Moss, and Reddick all hit righties well, while Paulsen plays in Coors field. In each of these scenarios, those mentioned are likely to put up better production than their overall lines may suggest, and is likely to cost something similar to a 5^th OF or bench player.  As you look for players who perform well in these types of situations, you’ll stumble upon a few players you really like. Feel free to post some of your favorites in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »

These predictions are specifically based on Ottoneu FGpt scoring. Perhaps “Bold” isn’t defined clearly enough, but my hope is that this is structured in such a way that my thought process can provide some benefit (even if the predictions seem a little extreme at face value.)

1. Domingo Santana will be a top 15 OF.

Nelson Cruz, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, Adam Jones…  If you looked at our FGpt OF rankings, these are the 15-20^th ranked outfielders. Which is to say, I think Domingo Santana could be better than all of them (and the rest of those listed below him in our rankings) in 2016. The Brewers do not look like a good team (yet…) so – unless he gets injured – expect a full slate of playing time, a great home park, and lots of power (three things that are gold in linear weights scoring.) The obvious hole in his game is the strikeouts (34% in 2015), but if he can reign that in at all, the upside is tremendous.

2. John Jaso will be a viable 2nd OF

The obvious issue has been playing time (70, 99, 70 games played over the past 3 seasons), but given that he slated to play 1B, I feel fairly confident he will play more games than he has in any of the past 3 seasons.  If he does, he could easily produce value which is expected of many #2 OF in FGpts. The Pirates’ outfield is set, so don’t expect him to retain eligibility for 2017, but he should be incredibly useful for this season. Alex Gordon, Starling Marte, Adam Jones, Christian Yelich, Charlie Blackmon, and Yoenis Cespedes are all projected to be within 5 points of wOBA of Jaso. Those players will cost $18-$25 apiece. If he can stay on the field, Jaso has a good chance to be in that tier, and you can get him for about a third of that price.

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Co-ownership. In my 10 years of fantasy experience, it was something I’d never tried before, nor had I given it much thought. It always seemed like a chore, and (given that I tend to have strong opinions) I assumed that if I ever did co-own a team I would end up “running” the squad, while my counterpart would be left to sit on his hands. It just didn’t seem like much fun – for me or my counterpart – or like an experience that would be any different from Ottoneu leagues I had already participated in.

Until recently.

Fellow Rotographs contributor Trey Baughn and myself were paired up in a newly formed Ottoneu league. Neither of us are experts on the topic of co-ownership, but I wanted to talk through several observations we have quickly realized in our month long trial run.

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Below is the Starting Pitcher installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.

Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Outfield/Relief Pitcher

In the context of Ottoneu, perhaps rankings are a misnomer, because you really want to know the dollar value each player is worth. We’ve included this information for our benefit. In all, these rankings should help to give you a spread of four dollar values for each player, as well as a comparison to average prices (post-arbitration, pre-cut deadline) within the Ottoneu FGpts universe. Each player’s Ottoneu eligibility (5GS, 10 appearances) is included as well, though players are ranked at their most valuable position. If you have questions on a specific ranking, or a question for a specific ranker, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Consider this your very early, subject to change, Ottoneu pricing cheat sheet.
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