Last week, we celebrated the Ottoneu Surplus Value All-Stars! They’re the guys who are rostered with low salaries but are producing like superstars. This week, I’m back with a look at the Ottoneu Surplus Value Un-Stars — those high-priced stars who have been duds dragging your team down the standings so far this season.

Above are the 20 least valuable hitters this year. It’s populated with guys who are either seriously underperforming, have been injured, or both. It’s also an interesting mix of younger players who are suddenly struggling — Luis Urías, Jose Miranda, and Josh Rojas all fit this bill — and a few older veterans on the downswing of their careers.

The player with the highest average salary above is Jose Altuve. He’s actually been as good as he has been in the past when he’s on the field, but he’s missed so much time due to injury, his surplus value is in the negative. Jazz Chisholm is another guy who has been productive when on the field, but injuries have really ruined his season. Then there are the players who have been both injured and ineffective. Look no further than Giancarlo Stanton, Tim Anderson, and Jesse Winker. These big name players haven’t played enough to amass much value for your team and when they have played, they’ve stunk.

Alejandro Kirk and Jose Miranda are two surprising inclusions on this list. Both had breakout seasons last year but have struggled to follow up that success this year. Kirk’s issues seem to stem from a loss of contact quality; his hard hit and barrel rates are both down significantly and his BABIP has fallen by nearly 50 points. His expected wOBA is slightly higher than the results he’s put together so far, but it’s still significantly down from what he produced last year. Miranda is suffering from the same issues of contact quality. And again, his BABIP is abnormally low and his expected wOBA is higher than his actual results. Still, his expected stats don’t exactly paint a rosy picture and he’ll need to continue working things out in the minor leagues.

Like the list of hitters, this list of pitchers is filled with injured stars or ineffective youngsters. Some injury risk was obviously baked into Jacob deGrom’s average salary, but losing him for all of this season and next is a brutal blow for teams who were rostering him. Tyler Glasnow’s value is an interesting story. He returned from the IL in late-May so he hasn’t had as much time to generate points. But he’s also really struggled with a big home run problem this year which is exacerbated in a format like Ottoneu.

Then there are guys like Alek Manoah and Luis Severino who have so seriously underperformed their relatively high salaries. The former’s return from his whirlwind development program in the Blue Jays farm system looked promising — he allowed just a single run over six innings against the Tigers and didn’t walk a single batter. If he’s figured out his mechanical issues, there’s still plenty of time left in the season to produce some value for teams. Severino’s issues are a little tougher to decipher. Every pitch in his repertoire is producing poorer results this year than in years past despite no significant changes in their physical characteristics. And it’s not like he’s getting unlucky either — opposing batters are simply crushing everything they see from him.

With the All-Star break and a four day break from the regular season right around the corner, I’ve decided to skip the Ottoneu Starting Pitcher Planner this week. Many teams will take this opportunity to reorder their starting rotations as they head into the second half of the season, which means the probable pitchers listed on the Roster Resource Probables Grid will likely change between now and next Friday.

Instead, I’ll take this opportunity to celebrate some of the players who have made the biggest contributions to our Ottoneu teams during the first half of the season. The highest scoring player so far has been Shohei Ohtani — no surprise there since he’s scoring in both pitching and hitting categories. If you look past the two-way sensation, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Kevin Gausman are the highest scoring players behind him. But not everyone can afford to roster an Ohtani ($54 average salary), Acuña ($54), or Gausman ($17). (Okay, Gausman is a little more attainable, but bear with me). If you’re rostering any of these top scorers, you’re probably towards the top of the standings in your league.

Instead, I want to celebrate the guys with tons of surplus value — the players who are rostered with low salaries but who are producing big numbers for your team. After all, the key to winning in Ottoneu year-after-year is identifying those players who can produce like superstars but cost a fraction of an Ohtani or Acuña. I pulled surplus value data from the FanGraphs Auction Calculator and then calculated the surplus value per dollar of salary to get a list of players who have produced the most value for the lowest cost. Let’s celebrate the Ottoneu Surplus Value All-Stars!

Above are the 20 most valuable hitters plus two catchers. Corbin Carroll leads the way as the seventh highest scoring batter this year. Spencer Steer and Luis Arraez are right behind him at ninth and tenth overall and their multi-positional eligibility has been a boon for the teams who are rostering them. The biggest surprise on this list has to be Jeimer Candelario, who is still shockingly available in nearly a quarter of all Ottoneu leagues.

The majority of this list is players in the middle of breakout seasons or bounce back seasons. That’s pretty unsurprising since those kinds of players are able to be rostered for cheap in the hopes that they hit it big. But just because they show up on this list doesn’t necessarily make them a shoe-in to be a keeper next year. Guys like Justin Turner and Andrew McCutchen are veterans in the middle of fantastic seasons but there’s no guarantee they’ll keep up the production next year.

On the pitching side of things, the story is largely the same. Nathan Eovaldi is the second highest scoring pitcher behind Gausman and Marcus Stroman and Mitch Keller are sixth and seventh overall. For the relievers, it’s essentially a list of the top scoring relievers with Félix Bautista and Alexis Díaz leading the way and Yennier Cano, Tanner Scott, Tyler Rogers, and Scott McGough all sitting inside the top 10.

The surprise inclusion on this list is probably Nick Martinez. He’s bounced between the rotation and the bullpen but he’s been productive no matter where he’s pitched. There are a number of pitchers on the list who are also shockingly under-rostered. Rogers is the sixth highest scoring reliever this season and he’s available in more than a third of Ottoneu leagues. I’m sure that roster percentage is being pulled down by 5×5 leagues that only value saves, but he’s clearly been one of the best relievers in baseball this year.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• Not many teams get a double helping of cake matchups next week. The Giants will head into the All-Star break with a homestand against two weaker offenses in the Mariners and Rockies. The Orioles also have a couple of easier matchups on paper next week, but they’re on the road and face a tough divisional matchup in the Yankees.
• The Brewers, Nationals, and White Sox have rough matchups in both their series next week. Lucas Giolito has a two-start week but I’d be pretty hesitant to start him against the Blue Jays and Cardinals at home. Depending on how you feel about Corbin Burnes this year, he looks like a pretty risky start against the on-fire Reds.
• A couple teams have wonky schedules next week. The Astros and Rangers wrap up a four-game series on Monday; Houston will host Colorado for two and the Mariners for four while Texas travels to Boston and Washington for a pair of three-game series. On the other end of the week, the Dodgers and Angels play a two-game series the weekend before the All-Star break with both teams taking Sunday off.
• It looks like there are a handful of starters slated to come off the Injured List next week, including Carlos Rodón, Tarik Skubal, Johnny Cueto, and José Quintana. I’d recommend waiting to see how they fair after their injuries, though Skubal’s start at home against the A’s looks really enticing.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Joe Ryan
• Logan Webb
• Braxton Garrett
• Tyler Wells
• Cristian Javier
• Logan Gilbert
• Clayton Kershaw
• Blake Snell
• Shane Bieber
• Zach Eflin
• Miles Mikolas
• Bryan Woo

After taking a break from the pitching beat last week to write about my Ottoneu rebuild, I’m back with a look at a few under-rostered starters who have been performing particularly well the past few weeks. I’ve split the article into pitchers rostered in more than and less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues to give a good spread of shallow and deep options.

Roster > 60%

Between this section and the section below, I’ve got three different Pirates starters listed; Johan Oviedo is the best of the bunch. He’s leaned into his two breaking balls as his primary weapons, while using his mediocre but hard fastball to set up those bendy pitches. He allowed three home runs in his first start of the season but has allowed just four across the 15 starts since. That alone tells you exactly how valuable he’s been in Ottoneu. xFIP thinks he’s been a bit lucky with his home run rate but batters are having all sorts of trouble putting his breaking balls in play with any authority; he’s running a .289 and .254 expected wOBA on his slider and curveball, respectively.

Taijuan Walker is in the middle of a very impressive stretch; across his last four starts, he’s allowed just two runs while striking out 26 in 26 innings. This hot streak coincides with a two-tick increase in velocity across his repertoire. He’s also reduced the usage of his four-seam fastball in favor of his sinker and cutter. Along with his excellent splitter, he’s focusing his efforts on his best pitches and is paying dividends. As long as this bump in velocity sticks around, Walker is a worthwhile target if he’s still on the waiver wire in your league.

Seth Lugo was recently activated off the Injured List and has made a pair of solid starts against the Giants and Nationals. In his transition back to the rotation this year, he had exceeded expectations with a decent strikeout rate and a fantastic walk rate. His xFIP is right in line with his actual results and he should continue to be an unexciting innings eater with decent ratios this summer.

The knock on Luis L. Ortiz was a lack of a third offering to pair with his excellent slider and hard fastball. He’s throwing a changeup around 14% of the time this year, almost exclusively to left-handed batters, and it’s been a nice addition to his repertoire. It’s got a bit of swing and miss to it and it’s producing a .308 expected wOBA. The thing to monitor will be his ability to command his pitches; his walk rate is pretty high and he hasn’t counteracted those free passes with a high strikeout rate. The whiffs should come, especially with his slider continuing to dominate, but it seems like he’s still a work in progress.

Roster < 60%

With Yusei Kikuchi, you know you’re getting a ton of strikeouts offset by lapse in command and a penchant for allowing a ton of home runs. That’s not a great combination, particularly in a format like Ottoneu points leagues. Still, when things are going right, he can be a useful option in your rotation. Over his past five starts, he’s walked only five batters while striking out 33. That’s a phenomenal strikeout-to-walk ratio. Of course, he’s also allowed five home runs in that timeframe so all his woes haven’t been solved, but he’s still managed to accumulate 5.2 points per innings pitched during this stretch.

Matthew Boyd is another pitcher who’s home run problem has prevented him from truly succeeding in Ottoneu. That hasn’t really changed this year; his home run rate isn’t as bad as it has been in the past, but it’s still an issue. Over his last four outings, he’s racked up seven or more strikeouts in three of them while walking just three batters total. He’s currently generating whiff rates higher than 30% on three of his pitches, giving him an impressive collection of weapons.

Paul Blackburn missed most of the first two months of the season due to a spring finger injury. He returned in late May and has struck out more than a quarter of the batters he’s faced in his five starts this season. That’s easily a career high strikeout rate for him and it looks like he’s building on the breakout that he enjoyed last year. The biggest change for him so far is an increase in the number of sliders he’s throwing. That pitch was re-introduced to his repertoire last year and it’s been a huge swing-and-miss pitch for him this season.

Every once in a while, a pitcher will come out of nowhere to make a big splash in the majors. This year, that guy is Osvaldo Bido. He’s never been ranked on a Pirates prospect list and his minor league track record is spotty at best. He reached Triple-A as a 25-year-old in 2021 and finally made his major league debut this season. Across his first three starts in the big leagues, he’s allowed just six runs with a perfectly acceptable 3.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Something must have clicked for him because he’s always run high walk rates. If he can keep avoiding the free passes, he’s a name you could try speculating on.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The A’s are lined up to face the Yankees and White Sox next week at home. Both of those opponents have been struggling offensively recently and the Coliseum is a fantastic pitcher’s park. This is a pretty good opportunity to start whichever Oakland starters you’re rostering.
• The Blue Jays, Marlins, and Tigers have some pretty rough matchups next week. Both Toronto and Miami face the tough Red Sox offense; the former gets the red hot Giants in their first series of the week and the latter gets the Braves in a huge divisional showdown next weekend. Detroit will travel to Texas to face the potent Rangers offense and then travel to Colorado over the weekend. If you’re rostering any of the Tigers starting rotation, keep them on your bench next week.
• The Dodgers are the other team to visit Coors Field next week, making Clayton Kershaw and Bobby Miller pretty risky starts. Thankfully, they head to Kansas City afterwards, giving the other half of their rotation some really nice matchups over the weekend. It’s also possible Julio Urías will end up making his return from the IL in that series against the Royals.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Luis Castillo
• Spencer Strider
• Framber Valdez
• Nathan Eovaldi
• Ranger Suárez
• Taj Bradley
• Yu Darvish
• Zac Gallen
• Tyler Wells
• Garrett Whitlock
• Kevin Gausman
• Sonny Gray
• Michael Kopech
• Paul Blackburn
• Gavin Williams

We’re approaching the busiest part of the season as teams who have designs on competing are looking to make their moves to bolster their rosters ahead of the final stretch this fall. A few weeks ago, Chad Young wrote up his process of deciding who to keep and who to sell on one of his Ottoneu rosters. I’d like to go through the same effort for my roster in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams. If you’ve been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to the ups and downs of the regular season.

I’ve already made three moves with an eye towards the future:

1. My $3 Kyle Manzardo for $9 Jazz Chisholm Jr.
2. My $6 Michael Conforto and $3 Luis Garcia (2B) for $12 Ryan Mountcastle
3. My $43 Bryce Harper and $21 Teoscar Hernández for $48 Corey Seager and $3 Taylor Ward (I previously wrote up my thought process for this trade)

Seager has been absolutely phenomenal this year and is looking like he’ll be well worth his $50 price tag next year, assuming he doesn’t get hit with arbitration dollars. Ward has also been hitting well recently, giving me hope that his early season slump was just a bump in the road and that he’ll be a solid keeper at $5 next year. Unfortunately, Chisholm has been sidelined with a toe injury and Mountcastle has continued to struggle despite some promising peripherals.

The first step is deciding who is going to make up the core of next year’s team. No one is untouchable but there are certainly players who are more available than others. Going through the process of identifying and sorting your roster with an eye towards next year is an important exercise for any team, even if you’re towards the top of the standings. Here’s how I view my roster shaking out right now:

These nine guys should form the core of my next competitive roster. It would be ideal if Franco was a little cheaper, but his breakout this season and sky high ceiling justify his salary. I didn’t expect to have two catchers listed in this group, but Murphy and Heim are both slugging the ball and both look like they’ve taken a significant step forward this year. I’ve got a solid little group of pitchers here too headlined by Kirby.

I’m a little worried that I don’t have any outfielders in the group above. It’s become increasingly difficult to fill five slots with solid contributors and that was a concern of mine when I moved Harper for Seager. Steer is on track to gain OF eligibility for this year and next but I’d rather use him as a super utility guy rather than locking him into a spot in my outfield.

I’d have to be blown away by the offer to move any of these guys right now.

These five I expect to be keepers but there’s a bit of risk they might not pan out the way I expect. Keeping a $9 Torkelson is probably a bit crazy, but he’s been hitting much better recently and still has his prospect pedigree working in his favor. If he finishes the season strong, he could be a nice fit on my roster. Kelenic’s breakout has slowed down a bit after a very hot start; I think the adjustments he’s made are for real but there’s always a chance he falls back into his bad habits. I thought Ward was a great buy low target at his salary; he should be a keeper if he continues to hit like he has this month.

This group is filled with guys who are fairly priced and I could see myself keeping a handful of them. I’d also be open to moving any of them if the right deal materialized. I’ve already gotten a number of inquiries about Seager but I acquired him for Harper. If I was going to flip him, I’d want to get commensurate value in return which isn’t what other owners seem like they’re interested in giving up. I expect to enter 2024 with Seager and Franco locking down two of my infield positions.

I’ve got a large group of pitchers here who all seem like pretty good values for their salaries. Detmers and Rogers still have something to prove and they’re the most expensive of the bunch. I almost put Gonsolin and Suárez in the top tier of automatic keepers but I think there are enough question marks surrounding them that I left them here.

Here’s where most of my outfielders appear too. Keeping Gurriel at $16 would be pretty tough even though he’s posting career highs in hard-hit and contact rates. De La Cruz and McCarthy have both been up and down during their short careers; if they can finish this year strong, they both become interesting keepers.

If I keep all 26 players in these three tiers, I’d head into next season with $307 in committed salary plus an unknown amount of arbitration that could be as high as $33 or as low as $11. Let’s assume the final total falls somewhere closer to the high end. With 14 roster spots to fill and around $60-$70 of free cap space, I need to move some of these high priced players on the bubble to get my roster in the right shape for next year.

Here’s the list of guys I’d be happy to move or am planning on cutting at the end of the year. Muncy is probably the most valuable player above and I have a standing offer involving him that I’ve been sitting on. I’ve also had a surprising number of inquiries about Baz. At his salary, he wouldn’t be hard to keep, but the injury history is a huge red flag and I think I’d be able to get more value from him in a deal than from keeping him.

Abreu could potentially have some value to a team if his midseason hot streak continues and he’s able to start producing around his career norms over the second half of the season. All of my relievers are listed here too since Romano is really the only one with enough value to realistically keep.

Going through the effort of organizing my roster like this has helped me see that I’ve got too many players on the keep/sell bubble and they’re all a little too expensive to hold onto all of them. I’ll need to find some creative deals to reduce the amount of salary I’m planning on keeping next year to give me more room in the draft to add to my roster. I’ll update my trade block with these guys and hope to move some of them for cheaper pieces.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Cubs and Cardinals play in the MLB London Series next weekend which means they’re both off on Friday for travel. The last time teams played in England, the Yankees and Red Sox combined for 50 total runs across two games. The dimensions of London Stadium are particularly small — it would be the shortest center field fence in the majors — so avoiding the four pitchers scheduled to start this series would be prudent.
• They aren’t the only team with a weird travel schedule next week. The Nationals and Diamondbacks are scheduled to play a make-up game on Thursday. That means Arizona will play in Milwaukee to start the week, head to Washington for a single game, and then fly all the way across the country to San Francisco for their weekend series.
• Teams with more traditionally tough schedules include the Angels, Braves, and Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani manages to avoid pitching in Coors Field but he still has to face the Dodgers offense in his start next week. Based on his struggles recently, you’re probably better off sitting Spencer Strider in both of his starts next week. Atlanta plays in a couple of hitter friendly venues against teams who are playing particularly well recently.
• I’ve only been calculating these matchup scores for a few weeks now, but the Reds somehow managed to pull a zero in their series against the Braves. That’s pretty incredible. Just for reference, that means they’re facing the best road offense and the best offense over the last two weeks in the worst venue for home runs in the majors.
• Teams with easier schedules include the Pirates, Tigers, and Twins. All of Minnesota’s rotation has been a must-start for practically the entire season, but they’ve all got pretty cushy matchups next week. Detroit’s and Pittsburgh’s rotations are a little hit-or-miss, but there are some key contributors who should be easy starts next week.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Tyler Glasnow
• Gerrit Cole
• Pablo López
• George Kirby
• José Berríos
• Garrett Whitlock
• Merrill Kelly
• Michael Wacha
• Alex Cobb
• Framber Valdez
• Max Scherzer
• Corbin Burnes
• Clayton Kershaw
• Bailey Ober
• Johan Oviedo
• Ranger Suárez
• Aaron Civale
• Michael Lorenzen

Keeping track of the machinations of 30 major league bullpens is pretty tricky. In standard leagues, it’s hard enough trying to discern which relievers are earning save opportunities, especially since more and more teams are using a committee approach in the ninth inning. In Ottoneu, with both saves and holds earning points, that search for high leverage relievers becomes even more of a challenge. There are plenty of resources out there — the Roster Resource Closer Depth Chart is one of my favorites — but even the most vigilant fantasy player can’t keep track of everything going on across the majors.

Here are a few relievers who have been seeing high leverage usage over the last two weeks, who are also rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues:

Chris Martin is currently the primary setup guy ahead of Kenley Jansen in the Red Sox ‘pen. His strikeout rate isn’t as high as it was last year with the Cubs and Dodgers but his walk rate is still a tidy 2.6%. Nothing has really changed in his profile; his swinging strike rate is right in line with where it was last year and his CSW% is up to a career high 30.7%. I’d expect his strikeout rate to bounce back towards where it was, giving him a bit more ceiling than his surface-level stats would indicate.

I wrote up Josh Sborz the last time I looked at under-rostered relievers and his roster rate barely ticked up from 0.3% to 1.9%! He’s definitely taken hold of the eighth inning duties in the Rangers bullpen ahead of closer Will Smith and his FIP is currently the lowest among this group. He currently has a career-high strikeout rate at 36.8% and his walk rate has come down two points from his career norm. More importantly, he’s only allowed a single home run this year, something that had plagued him in the past. Grant Anderson was called up by the Rangers at the end of May and has already inserted himself into the late inning picture. He dazzled in his debut, throwing 2.2 innings and striking out seven.

Justin Lawrence has taken over closing duties for the Rockies. He’s using his big sweeping slider to earn swings and misses, though his overall strikeout rate is held back by a sinker that’s used to get weak contact on the ground. Still, that’s a benefit for a reliever pitching in Coors Field and he’s only allowed a single home run this year and a 95th percentile barrel rate.

Sam Hentges missed more than a month of the season with a spring shoulder injury but has come back strong and has converted a number of high leverage opportunities for the excellent Guardians bullpen. He’s collected seven holds and has been used for multiple innings a handful of times as well. His command has been uncharacteristically off, though that might just be him still shaking off the rust after his injury. He’s throwing in the zone as often as he was last year, but his chase rate has fallen by nearly eight points.

Lucas Sims missed most of last year and some of this year with a back injury, but he returned in late-April and has taken his place as the primary setup guy in Cincinnati. He really struggled with his command after being activated off the IL, though he’s only walked two batters over his last six outings. Back in 2020, it looked like he had taken a big step forward as a lockdown reliever and the slider that drove that success is still intact. Opposing batters are whiffing 45.7% of the time they offer at his breaking ball, right in line with the whiff rates he ran in 2020 and ‘21.

After bouncing around three different organizations over the last three years, it looks like Chris Devenski has finally rediscovered the changeup that made him one of the best relievers in baseball all the way back in his debut season in 2016. His FIP across the last six seasons has been an ugly 4.27 with a decent 3.71 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This year, he’s throwing his changeup more often than ever, it’s returning a whiff rate close to 40%, and he only walked the first two batters of his season yesterday. He’s taken hold of the eighth inning role in the Angels bullpen.

With Ben Joyce sidelined with an elbow injury, another young relief arm for the Angels has stepped into high leverage opportunities in his place. José Soriano was called up in early-June and has picked up holds in three of his first four appearances in the big leagues. The flamethrowing righty had been a starting prospect in the past but command issues forced him into the bullpen for Los Angeles. He’s currently unrostered in Ottoneu.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• After working through a tough schedule this week, the Twins have a couple of easier matchups next week at home; the Brewers are much weaker on the road and have been really struggling recently and the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in the league no matter where they’re playing. The Braves also have a pretty nice schedule next week, with three in Detroit and then four games at home against the Rockies.
• The Astros and Rangers both have a pretty tough pair of home series next week. Houston will host the Nationals and Reds, both of which might seem like easy matchups, but both teams have been hitting pretty well recently. Texas hosts the high powered Angels and Blue Jays offenses and trying to avoid matchups against those two teams seems more justifiable. Still, with the way they’ve been pitching recently, you’re probably not going to sit Nathan Eovaldi or Jon Gray right now.
• The Rockies head out on the road next week but they’ve got two really bad matchups lined up which means you’re probably sitting their starters if you happen to be rostering any of them.
• Good luck trying to figure out which starters to start in that Dodgers-Giants series next weekend. Both teams have extremely low matchup ratings, a confluence of the home run friendly ballpark, the strength of San Francisco’s lineup on the road, and the always dangerous Los Angeles offense.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Pablo López
• Zack Wheeler
• Zach Eflin
• Logan Gilbert
• Charlie Morton
• Jesús Luzardo
• James Paxton
• Tanner Bibee
• Jon Gray
• Hunter Brown
• Chris Bassitt
• Joe Musgrove
• Tony Gonsolin
• Logan Webb

After rethinking what my Friday column looks like a few weeks ago, I wrote up some under-rostered relievers as the first step in reimagining this Tuesday column. This week, I’ll be looking at a few under-rostered starters who have been performing particularly well the past few weeks. I’ve split the article into pitchers rostered in more than and less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues to give a good spread of shallow and deep options.

Roster > 60%

You’ve probably heard that Michael Kopech has finally figured things out after really struggling to start off the year. Through his first eight outings, he had a 5.74 ERA that paled in comparison to his ghastly 7.30 FIP. He had allowed a whopping 12 home runs during that stretch, though his xFIP wasn’t much better at 5.78. His strikeout and walk rates were trending the wrong direction and he looked thoroughly cooked. Then, on May 19, he held the Royals scoreless across eight innings, striking out 10 and walking no one. Granted, it doesn’t take an ace to keep Kansas City off the scoreboard but Kopech has proven that it wasn’t just a fluke against a weak opponent. Across his last four starts, including the one against the Royals, he’s posted a 2.05 ERA backed by a 2.56 FIP and it looks like all his command woes have been put behind him; he’s running an outstanding 9.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this hot stretch. This stretch of success seemingly stems from a mechanical adjustment to reassert his talent.

Miles Mikolas has also put a rough start to the season behind him. Through his first five starts, his ERA and FIP stood at 7.46 and 5.49, respectively. Since then, they’re down to 1.82 and 2.98 in eight starts and he’s been particularly effective over his last three outings. I don’t think there’s any one thing driving his recent success, it’s simply a return to his ultra-efficient profile after a rough five start stretch in April.

Over his last four starts, Jack Flaherty has posted a 1.88 ERA and a 2.45 FIP with a decent 3.13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That’s an improvement over his early season work that suffered from far too many free passes. The biggest difference has been a greater reliance on his fastball; he threw his heater around 37% of the time through the first eight starts of the season and that’s jumped up ten points over the last four. Tangibly, that’s resulted in a nearly five point increase in his zone rate and just eight walks during this stretch.

Clarke Schmidt just tossed his best start of the season against the Mariners last week, holding them scoreless over 5.2 innings with seven strikeouts. Across his last three starts, he holds a 2.07 FIP with a 3.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio. To me, the perception of Schmidt’s struggles this year are out of step with his peripherals — his strikeout and walk rates during this streak of strong starts are right in line with his seasonal averages — but two ugly starts against the Rays and Rangers where he allowed 12 runs marr his overall line. I think his improvement is linked to how he’s using his sweeper. In his first nine starts of the year, he located his big breaking ball in the zone a little over 50% of the time. That rate has fallen three points over his last three starts and his whiff rate with the pitch has seen a five point increase up to 32.5%.

Roster < 60%

Kyle Gibson has been a solid, if unexciting contributor for years. This season, his strikeout rate is down a bit, though it’s been offset by a drop in home runs allowed. A weird seven inning shutout against the Yankees a few weeks ago where he allowed two hits and four walks to go along with three strikeouts is throwing off his strikeout-minus-walk rate you see above. He’s actually been pretty good over his last four outings, with a 2.92 ERA and a 3.20 FIP.

Gibson’s teammate Dean Kremer has also been on a hot streak and it stretches all the way back to the beginning of May. Across his last six starts, he’s posted a 2.55 ERA and a 3.60 FIP with a pretty good 2.90 strikeout-to-walk ratio to back it up. He’s also done this against some of the best offenses in the league — the Braves, Rays, Angels, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Giants — which is a great sign for when he starts facing some weaker teams. His improvement likely stems from his fastball velocity which has now reached a career high of 94.9 mph on average.

A journeyman who has pitched in Korea in two separate stints, Ben Lively is making the most of his time in the majors with the Reds this year. Across four starts, he’s posted a 3.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 3.33 ERA. The problem has been the home runs, particularly at home in the bandbox in Cincinnati; he’s allowed all five of his home runs at home which has caused his FIP to spike to 4.72. He’s a kitchen-sink righty with a fantastic slider fueling his high strikeout rate right now.

I had planned on writing up Alex Faedo in this space, but the Tigers just placed him on the Injured List with a finger injury. He suffers from the same problem as Lively: a fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio is marred by far too many home runs allowed. Instead, I’ll highlight the prospect Detroit called up in Faedo’s place: Reese Olson. Command issues capped the potential ceiling of Olson despite possessing a wipeout slider. He threw that pitch a third of the time in his first major league start and it returned a 33.3% whiff rate. The thing to monitor for him will be his ability to locate his fastball. If he’s able to figure out his command issues, he’s got the deep repertoire to be able to produce in the Tigers rotation.