Over the last little while we’ve been looking at suggested draft orders for each fantasy position. We’ve already had posts for catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen.

The Top Targets:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.410 wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.393 wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.316 wOBA)

There is a pretty big drop-off after the first three shortstops on the list. There’s actual a drop after the first two. Ramirez has seen a drop in steals over the past three seasons – from 51 to 35 to 27, as he’s moved into more of a run-producing role, which has hurt his overall game a bit. With that said, he still batted .342 with 24 homers and he drove in 100 runs for the first time in his career. He’s still a stud if he doesn’t steal 30 bases and he scores fewer runs.

Tulowitzki took a leap into fantasy stardom in ’09 with a 30-20 season and 100 runs scored. He still has room to grow and we could see a .300 average in 2010, along with 100 RBI. The fact that he took more walks last season (11.6 BB%) is a good sign.

Rollins had an “off year” and he was still a 20-30 player with 100 runs scored. He doesn’t help you in batting average, but he has a great lineup around him so he’s going to be valuable even if his recent struggles are actually regression showing its ugly face.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.390 wOBA)
5. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.389 wOBA)
6. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.342 wOBA)
7. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.319 wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.321 wOBA)

Jeter posted the third highest wOBA of any shortstop in the Majors last season but he sits at No. 4 on the list, in part due to his age (36 this season). We don’t expect him to steal 30 bases again and the 18 homers were probably a bit of a fluke (or ball-park induced, as 13 came at home).

Likewise, Bartlett’s ’09 season was probably a career year in terms of power and batting average. He’ll probably continue to be a solid contributor with the bat, but definitely not a top target. Reyes gets bumped down the list due to his injury/health woes. We really have no idea at this point when his season will begin. And much of his value is tied around his base running, so it will be interesting to see how he rebounds in that area.

I’m definitely not a big Alexei Ramirez fan but he obviously has value as someone that can be a 15-15 player with a .260-.280 average. He also potentially offers some versatility depending on how the Sox club uses him. Drew is just frustrating. He has the talent to be a Top 5 shortstop but he just cannot put it together consistently. But he is entering his age-27 season, so maybe something will click. Drew has 20-homer potential.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.316 wOBA)
10. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.322 wOBA)
11. Yunel Escobar , Atlanta (.357 wOBA)
12. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.354 wOBA)
13. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.344 wOBA)
14. Marco Scutaro, Toronto (.354 wOBA)
15. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles AL (.339 wOBA)

A lot of these guys are very similar in value so you could really rank them about 15 different ways. Furcal doesn’t run enough anymore to be truly coveted. But if he can play 150 games, he could score 100 runs with a good, young offense behind him. It’s hard to know what to expect from Andrus this year… and we can only hope that he avoids the dreaded sophomore curse. Don’t overpay for him. Escobar has value as someone that can hit 10-15 homers and bat .270-.300 but he’s not a run producer and he doesn’t steal bases.

Cabrera hits for a hollow .300 average but he went down with an injury today so we’ll have to await word on its severity. Tejada’s in his declining years a move back to the American League probably is not going to help. Scutaro is most assuredly coming off of a career year, but his numbers will probably dip less now that he’s in a more potent lineup thanks to his move from Toronto to Boston. He could score 100 runs at the top of that lineup. This is the year I’d like to see Aybar use his full talent and steal 30+ bases with 100 runs scored; he’s my personal shortstop sleeper pick for 2010.

Up Next: The Outfielders

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Alex Rodriguez, New York AL (.405)
2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (.380)
3. David Wright, New York NL (.368)

The top two players on this list are probably no-brainers. Rodriguez is coming off of an injury-delayed season but there is no reason to expect him to have any kind of setbacks related to his hip. I would certainly expect a return to his .300 batting average, as well as 35-40 homers. If healthy, a total surpassing 100 RBI is almost a given when you look at the lineup around him.Toss in 100 runs scored and 15 steals for good measure. And if you’re playing in an on-base league, don’t be surprised if he walks 100+ times given his improvements in that area last season (15.0% walk rate).

Longoria has played two (mostly) full seasons in the Majors and he has produced ISO rates of .259 and .245, which just goes to show that the kid has massive power. He’s also good for 100+ runs and RBI totals. Where he loses a step to A-Rod (in traditional leagues) is in the stolen base department and the batting average. Longoria, though, is still just 24 – 10 full years younger than Rodriguez.

Wright had a pretty bad season in ’09; his wOBA drop from .420 in 2008 to .397 to .368 in ’09. On the plus side, he’s entering his age-27 season so we can hope for an improvement… The biggest head-scratcher is the sudden drop in power, which many blamed on the stadium but he also did not hit bombs on the road (five homers, .144 ISO). He still has a good shot at being a 20-20 third baseman, but he may struggle to hit .300 again; his BABIP was .394 in ’09, which helped him hit .307 despite a huge jump in strikeout rate from 18.8 to 26.2%. Hopefully the addition of Jason Bay will help, as well as a return to form by both Jose Reyes and (eventually) Carlos Beltran.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington (.377)
5. Mark Reynolds, Arizona (.381)
6. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (.396)
7. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago NL (.392)
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.358)

You could argue for Zimmerman over Wright given the ’09 season but I like the Mets lineup better than that of the Nats – which will impact run and RBI totals. As well, Zimmerman is likely to hit for a similar average but he won’t nab 15-20 steals. The nice thing about fantasy baseball is that, in most leagues, you can enjoy Reynold’s 35-40 homers and 15-20 steals without putting up with his 200 strikeouts. On the down side, he’s probably going to hit about .240 thanks to his 38% strikeout rate.

This winter, a lot has been made about Sandoval’s switch in approach and weight-loss program… Honestly that worries me a bit. I would toss him into one of those “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” categories. Too often, an unorthodox player gets screwed up when he tries to appease too many people. Hopefully I’m wrong, though, and he goes out again and hits .330 with 20+ homers. I can also hope that the addition of free agents Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff will improve the lineup, but I have a feeling their impacts will be minimal. Still just 31, it feels like Ramirez has been around forever. Injuries limited him to just 82 games in ’09 but he almost tied his career-high batting average with a mark of .317. On the down side, his ISO rate dropped below .229 for the first time in five years.

After scoring one of the top free agent contracts in the winter of 2009-10, Figgins stands to be a little over-hyped in fantasy drafts. I’m also a little concerned that he’s eventually going to become Luis Castillo all over again as an aging speedster who loses his wheels half way through his contact (although really Castillo had lost them BEFORE the ridiculous contract). Figgins is still stealing 30+ bases each season but we have seen a decrease in his success rates over the past three seasons. He’s also topped a .300 batting average just once in his career and that was thanks to a .391 BABIP. Hopefully you’re getting enough power elsewhere in your fantasy lineup because you’re not going to get it from Figgins (.096 ISO) in 2010.

The Leftovers:
9. Michael Young, Texas (.385)
10. Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (.351)
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta (.354)
12. Casey Blake, Los Angeles NL (.354)
13. Adrian Beltre, Boston (.305)
14. Mark DeRosa, San Francisco (.327)
15. Alex Gordon, Kansas City (.321)

Young is no longer a lock for 200+ hits in a season but he’s still good for a .300 average and he increased his power output in ’09. Beckham is expected to play second base for Chicago in ’09 but he spent most of his time at the hot corner last season so he should open the year in many leagues as third-base eligible. It would be nice to see the club give him time at both positions to help his fantasy value, but it’s probably not going to happen.

Jones topped 140 games played for the first time in six seasons back in ’09 so durability is definitely not his strong suit. His offense is also slipping so don’t expect him to hit 25+ homers or bat above .300. Beltre could see some improvement in his offensive numbers thanks to his new home park (and lineup). With that said, his OPS was .683 in ’09. Ouch.

As long as Blake has company in the form of Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, he should continue to see some good pitches. However, he’s turning 37 this year so regression is coming… DeRosa is a nice little player because he offers some offense, as well as versatility. I wouldn’t rely on the 35-year-old for a full-time job in your lineup, though. Gordon is in need of a bounce-back year but he’s already going to be behind the eight-ball thanks to a broken thumb suffered recently.

Up Next: The Shortstops

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.402 wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.358 wOBA)
3. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.356 wOBA)

Utley is the clear winner at this position, both for his individual potential and for the offensive protection that he has around him in the Phillies lineup. He has 25-30 homer potential and he is one of the few second basemen that could produce both 100 runs scored and RBI. His 23 steals were the icing on the cake in ’09 but don’t count on him breaking the 20-mark again.

Kinsler is another second baseman that benefits from a good hitting environment, and a solid lineup. He hit just .253 in ’09 but he produced a 30-30 season and is just 27 years old. Don’t be shocked if he produces his first 100 RBI season in 2010. Roberts is starting to get a little gray around the edges but he’s also very consistent and has appeared in 155+ games for three straight seasons. Of concern, though, is the dwindling stolen base totals from 50 to 40 to 30 over the past three seasons.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.360 wOBA)
5. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.370 wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.408 wOBA)
7. Aaron Hill , Toronto (.357 wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips , Cincinnati (.337 wOBA)
9. Dan Uggla, Florida (.354 wOBA)

These middle options were the hardest to rank and you could probably mix numbers four through eight and I wouldn’t argue with you too strongly. Although Cano produced bigger numbers in ’09, you have to be worried about his motivation and consistency. Pedroia is a safer pick but the upside is not as big. Phillips is another player who worries me a bit and I think he’s still a little overrated based on his 30-30 season in ’07. With that said, don’t sneeze at a 20-20 second baseman.

Hill has the potential to be one of the most overrated players in 2010 fantasy drafts, thanks to his 36 homers and 108 RBI. On the plus side, he showed a power boost in ’07, as well, but his ’08 season was ruined by a concussion. With that said, 20 homers and 80 RBI is probably a more realistic projection for the upcoming season. Zobrist is another second baseman who is probably coming off of a career year, but he has some positional flexibility; His minor league numbers did not hint at that type of MLB offense. Uggla is going to hurt you in the batting average category but he’s also the safest bet amongst keystone players to repeat 30 homers.

The Leftovers:
10. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.325 wOBA)
11. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.341 wOBA)
12. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.342 wOBA)
13. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.321 wOBA)
14. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.365 wOBA)
15. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.337 wOBA)

As long as Lopez maintains his second base eligibility (and he shouldn’t become a full-time first baseman in Seattle in ’10), he has value based on his power. I expect a bounce-back season from Kendrick in ’10 but his value is almost all batting average (maybe some runs too). It will be interesting to see how Target Field plays this season and if it will have any effect on Hudson’s play. Polanco is going to be a weak third base fantasy option, but he has value as long as the second-base eligibility remains; He’ll benefit greatly from hitting ahead of Utley and Howard. Stewart has the potential to offer versatility on your roster with the ability to play second base and third base (as well as the outfield in some leagues). Weeks is a wild card.

Up Next: The Third Basemen

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis (.449 wOBA)
2. Mark Teixeira, New York AL (.402 wOBA)
3. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee (.420 wOBA)

A full season of Matt Holliday’s presence in the lineup could have a profound effect on Pujols, although it’s hard to imagine him being any more productive. The big first baseman even gave fantasy owners an added bonus in ’09 by stealing 16 bases, so it would be great to receive double-digit steals again… but don’t count on it. With Pujols, you know you’re getting a .300 average, 35+ homers, as well as 100+ RBIs and runs. If you play in an on-base league, he’ll even give you more than 100 walks.

Teixeira certainly benefits from a powerful lineup and new Yankee Stadium won’t hurt his power numbers. Despite the big year in ’09, he’s still a step behind the big man in St. Louis. If Alex Rodriguez can have a big (and fully healthy) year, though, and Curtis Granderson takes to pinstripes as expected, then Teixeira will continue to have plenty of protection in the lineup.

Fielder doesn’t have quite the protection that Tex has, but he had a massive season in ’09 despite getting off to a slow start in April (.354 wOBA). He just missed hitting .300 while slamming 46 homers and driving in 141 runs (which tied him with Ryan Howard for tops in the Majors). Fielder will continue to benefit from having Ryan Braun in the lineup and the speedy Alcides Escobar should do a good job of getting into scoring position with 30+ stolen base ability. A return to health by Rickie Weeks could also have a positive impact on the lineup.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit (.402 wOBA)
5. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia (.393 wOBA)
6. Joey Votto, Cincinnati (.418 wOBA)
7. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego (.402 wOBA)
8. Kevin Youkilis, Boston (.413 wOBA)
9. Justin Morneau, Minnesota (.371 wOBA)

With two rookies (Austin Jackson, Scott Sizemore) projected to start in the lineup, as well as a declining Magglio Ordonez, Cabrera was surrounded by a lot of question marks entering spring training in 2010. However, the late addition of Johnny Damon should have a nice effect on the lineup, as well as Cabrera’s numbers… unless age suddenly catches up to the former Yankee. Howard can match Fielder in homers and runs batted in, but he’s not going to hit for a high average and his walk and strikeout rates can take a toll depending on what type of league you’re playing in (such as an on-base league, or one that penalizes for strikeouts). On the plus side, he receives plenty of protection in a lineup that also features the likes of Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, and Jayson Werth.

Both Votto and Morneau are young-ish first basemen that missed some time in ’09. Even so, Votto had a career year and he produced a triple-slash line of .322/.414/.567. A full, healthy season could produce 100 runs and RBIs (and possibly 30 homers), which could vault him into elite status. A breakout year by Jay Bruce could also help. Morneau posted his second highest ISO ever (.242) and still drove in 100 runs despite playing in just 135 games. The presence of Joe Mauer in the lineup helps to take some of the pressure off of the Canadian slugger.

Gonzalez’ fantasy value will likely always be hindered by his home park, as long as he continues to play for the Padres. A move to a team like the Red Sox or White Sox, though, would shoot him up the charts. Despite his surroundings (and modest lineup support), Gonzalez still produced excellent numbers in ’09. He slugged 40 homers for the first time while his walk rate skyrocketed to 17.5%. On the downside, his .407 OBP was not enough to help him score more than 100 runs thanks to the lineup around him (He crossed the plate just 90 times). He also fell one short of the 100 RBI mark. Youkilis had a second straight .300+ average, 27+ homer season. He also scored 99 runs and drove in 94. A full season from Victor Martinez, as well as the presence of Marco Scutaro at the top of the order, will be nice but the lineup is not as scary as it used to be.

The Leftovers:
10. Lance Berkman, Houston (.386 wOBA)
11. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles AL (.382 wOBA)
12. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay (.374 wOBA)
13. Derrek Lee, Chicago NL (.412 wOBA)
14. Adam Dunn, Washington (.394 wOBA)
15. Todd Helton, Colorado (.392 wOBA)

Here we have some first basemen that are starting to show some gray around the edges in Berkman (age 34), Lee (34) and Helton (36). With that said, these players still have some pop in their bats. Berkman won’t have much offensive help from his fellow Astros infielders in 2010, so he’ll have to rely on the likes of Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence to help pad his numbers. Lee, coming off of the second-highest wOBA of his career, will look to keep the momentum going strong. Helton doesn’t provide the power numbers like he used to, but he’s a smart, .300 hitter who is surrounded by a talented lineup that should be even better in 2010.

Pena has produced 30+ homers and 100+ RBI for three straight seasons but his average has also plummeted from .282 to .247 to .227. You have to be a little concerned with the rising strikeout numbers, as well. Dunn lacks protection in Washington lineup so he’s probably not going to score 100 or more runs despite 100+ walks. Morales had a breakout ’09 season and he has the potential to have another excellent season but don’t pay too much for what could have been a career year; he’s not among the elite sluggers just yet.

Up Next: The Second Basemen

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here. As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota (.438 wOBA)
2. Victor Martinez, Boston (.375 wOBA)
3. Brian McCann, Atlanta (.359 wOBA)

It should come as no shock that the reigning American League MVP is the top target amongst catchers. Mauer’s value should be helped by a full season from Justin Morneau, as well as the additions of second baseman Orlando Hudson and shortstop J.J. Hardy, both of whom will reduce the playing time for the offensive vacuum known as Nick Punto. A better-balanced lineup can only help Mauer’s RBI and run totals.

Martinez is a great player to have in your fantasy lineup because he is eligible at both catcher and first base, which gives you added flexibility. A full season in Boston (He was traded from Cleveland midway through 2009) should have a positive effect on his numbers – especially in terms of RBI opportunities, and he should see better pitches now that he has more protection in the lineup.

McCann got off to a slow start in ’09 and April was pretty much a write-off thanks to vision problems, which are no longer a concern. On the downside, the Braves lineup is not significantly better than it was in ’09 so he will have limited protection in the lineup if Chipper Jones and/or Troy Glaus start to show their age.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Jorge Posada, New York AL (.378 wOBA)
5. Matt Wieters, Baltimore (.330 wOBA)
6. Miguel Montero, Arizona (.357 wOBA)
7. Russell Martin, Los Angeles NL (.307 wOBA)
8. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles AL (.362 wOBA)

Clearly, Posada had an outstanding year in ’09 but he appeared in just 111 games and the 38-year-old can’t swim in the fountain of youth forever (although New York should obviously try bottling whatever Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are drinking). On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Wieters is just coming into his own. You even might be able to draft the catcher in a favorable spot if your fantasy baseball owners are still feeling let down by his ’09 season. Wieters had an encouraging debut for a 23-year-old catcher, but expectations were incredibly (and unfairly) high for him.

Montero seized the starting gig away from Chris Snyder in ’09 thanks to an injury but fantasy managers would probably feel a little bit better if Snyder was off-loaded to another club in spring training (after proving his health). Martin appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness a couple years ago, but his power has dried up. Still, there aren’t many backstops that can steal you 10-20 bases in a season and he’s reportedly bulked up a bit in an effort to hit more taters. Napoli would perhaps be more deserving of a higher ranking if A) Jeff Mathis projected to have fewer at-bats, or B) The club would give more at-bats to Napoli at DH. Unfortunately, the addition of former Yankee Hideki Matsui will eat up most of the DH opportunities.

The Leftovers:
9. Geovany Soto, Chicago NL (.310 wOBA)
10. Chris Iannetta, Colorado (.346 wOBA)
11. Kurt Suzuki, Oakland (.321 wOBA)
12. Bengie Molina, San Francisco (.308 wOBA)
13. Yadier Molina, St. Louis (.337 wOBA)
14. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh (.306 wOBA)
15. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago AL (.326 wOBA)

Of the “leftovers,” the highest potentials come from Soto, Iannetta, and Doumit. Soto was not in great playing shape last season and he’s reportedly motivated to recapture his past Rookie of the Year glory. Iannetta has the offensive bonus of playing in Colorado, but the free agent signing of Miguel Olivo could mean fewer at-bats, unless the youngster breaks out in a big way. Doumit’s ’09 season was ruined by injuries and he appeared in 75 games. He has good power for a catcher but he’s also hurt by a below-average offense in Pittsburgh.

Up Next: The First Basemen

Reader Neil S. asks:

“I have a keeper league dilemma involving chronically injured players. My offense is possibly the weakest in my head-to-head keeper league, and I was planning on keeping [Carlos] Beltran until the recent surgery (we don’t have to announce our eight keepers until early March). But Josh Hamilton is also an option for me. So my question is – is it worth taking a shot on Hamilton bouncing back, or should I take Beltran’s more reliable production numbers, even if he’s going to miss a significant chunk of the year?

I’m keeping HanRam, Texeira, and Bay (though, of course, I’m worried about the hit his numbers will take at the new field), and four of the following five pitchers: Lester, Johnson, Hamels, Cain, and Hanson. Clearly, I’m much better positioned to go forward with my pitchers than I am with my hitters.”

Neil obviously has some pretty sweet offense going on with his team already, and he’s playing in a tradition 5×5 Head-to-Head League. Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, and Jason Bay will provide some good pop, RBI totals and both Ramirez and Teixeira should hit for good batting averages. In mid-December, Fangraphs fantasy fiend Eno Sarris ranked the center-fielders and had both Beltran and Hamilton within two slots of each other. However, it was announced roughly one month later that Beltran (ADP: 89.58) had undergone another surgery on his troublesome knee, which puts his Opening Day status in doubt.

The outfielder struggled with the knee in ’09 and most of his numbers were down as a result. His batting average was up to .325, but it was aided by a .353 BABIP. At the age of 33, Beltran is no spring chicken so you have to be worried about his mobility when he returns. Previously, a lot of his value in fantasy baseball was wrapped up in his ability to provide power and speed. You have to expect that Beltran will not provide 20+ steals this year, and his ability to score 100 runs could be hampered by reduced speed, as well as a poor lineup around him. If healthy, though, he should still be able to provide 25+ homers and 100 RBI (which he’s done seven of the last nine seasons). The lineup around him, again, could hurt his ability to drive in runs, but improved seasons by Jose Reyes and David Wright could certainly help. With all that said, there are a lot of things that have to go right for Beltran to really put up impactful numbers in 2010.

Hamilton (ADP: 51) also struggled through injury problems in 2010 and his career has been littered with stays on the disabled list. The 28-year-old outfielder has received a lot of press but the truth is that he’s produced just one full outstanding offensive season in his career (2008: .385 wOBA). Unlike Beltran, his injury (pinched nerve in his back) was fixed with rest rather than surgery. In ’09, he hit a disappointing .268/.315/.426 in 336 at-bats. His line-drive rate remained strong at 21% but it’s clear that he had trouble getting around on the good fastballs on a consistent basis as his Pitch Type Value (per 100) dropped from 2.64 to 1.36. Hamilton plays in a better offensive park than Beltan, and the Ranger also has more lineup protection with the likes of Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz, and Chris Davis. With speedster Julio Borbon likely playing everyday in 2010 (along with a second-year Elvis Andrus), Hamilton should have plenty of swift-footed players to drive in.

With everything said above, I am going to advocate for Hamilton as your keeper choice. He’s younger by five years so he’s a better long-term bet. Hamilton is also expected to be 100% healthy for the start of the year, which makes him a better short-term option (as witnessed by their current ADPs). Now, I am worried about his chronic health woes (as well as his well-documented off-field issues) but you have enough “insurance” with Ramirez, Teixeira, and Bay that you can take the risk. Beltran has a more proven track record, but I think we’re going to see a serious decline in his speed numbers.

*Average Draft Position (ADP) ranking provided by Mock Draft Central.

Alex Gonzalez will be manning shortstop in Toronto once again… only it will be a different Alex Gonzalez.

Alex S. Gonzalez was the Jays’ starting shortstop from 1994-2001, before rookie GM J.P. Ricciardi shed his salary in a trade dump with the Cubs. The younger Gonzalez, who was originally signed by Florida, will take over the position nine years after the original Gonzo left town.

Both players share some similar traits. Both shortstops were above-average defenders, but below average hitters (albeit with a little added pop). The elder Gonzalez finished his career in ’07 with a triple-slash line of .243/.302/.391, while the 32-year-old infielder has a career line of .247/.294/.395 in 1,229 big-league games.

Entering 2010, the junior Gonzalez will see everyday duty at shortstop with Toronto. The club also recently announced that it had resigned veteran backup John McDonald to a two-year, $3.0 million contract. He’ll likely spell Gonzalez at short once or twice a week, while also seeing time at second base and third base.

Defensively, which really doesn’t help fantasy owners, Gonzalez should pair with Aaron Hill to provide solid defense up the middle. Gonzalez had an UZR of 10.5 this past season. His range will help to make up for the poor play at the hot corner by Edwin ‘E5’ Encarnacion. Gonzalez’ defense pulled up his abysmal hitting to give him a 0.5 WAR rating, which means he was worth about $2.4 million in ’09. Terms of his 2010 contract have not been released.

Gonzalez split the ’09 season between Boston and Cincinnati and hit .238/.279/.355 in 391 at-bats. Bill James‘ projection for Gonzalez in 2010 is a line of .248/.305/.387. He hasn’t played more than 112 games in the past four seasons (having missed ’08 in its entirety), so McDonald should certainly get more playing time in 2010, after Marco Scutaro (possibly headed to Boston via free agency) started almost every game until he was hurt in September.

If Gonzalez sees some power return to his game in 2010 (His ISO was just .118 in ’09, compared to an average of .170 or so between 2003-07), he could see his value increase a little bit. Even so, he’s certainly not a Top 10 fantasy option at the position, and he may not be in the Top 20 either. Because of his defensive value, he’s far more valuable in real-life baseball than in fantasy ball.

As you all probably know, it’s the American Thanksgiving holiday this Thursday, so we Canadian writers are holding down the fort, having celebrated our Thanksgiving this past Oct. 12 (We canuckleheads are a crazy bunch).

Anyway, your friends to the north are not the only ones working during this holiday time. Some Major League Baseball teams have been busy working the transaction wire, including the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Padres, Kansas City… and the White Sox, as you learned with Dave’s recent post discussing the signing of Andruw Jones with the White Sox.

The Boston Red Sox made a minor move by acquiring infielder Tug Hulett from the Kansas City Royals for a player to be named or cash. Hulett had been designated for assignment recently. The move brings in some infield depth on the 40-man roster. The infielder, who never got a fair shot in KC, moves on to a club that should truly appreciate his ability to get on base, while providing depth at multiple infield positions. His defense is nothing special, but Hulett is an offensive-minded infielder with a career minor-league on-base average of .393. He also has the ability to hit 10-15 homers and steal just as many bases if given full playing time, which is unlikely to happen. In deep AL-only fantasy leagues, Hulett could offer short-term value if an injury occurs to a Boston starter. Just you watch… Kansas City will now go out and give a veteran bench player $1 million to fill the role that Hulett could have done for the league minimum. Frankly, I think he would have been a nice pick-up by the Jays organization.

I won’t completely condemn the Royals. Like Hulett, Buck Coats is one of those minor-league players that I would have grabbed for depth if I was a big-league GM. The Kansas City organization signed the outfielder as a minor-league free agent after he spent the past two season in triple-A with Toronto. Keeping in mind that Coats played in one of the best triple-A parks to hit in, he managed a triple-slash line of .302/.361/.415 with 25 steals in 32 attempts. His strikeout rate was just 12.8%, yet he has never gotten on base enough (8.6 BB%) to take advantage of his speed. Coats could settle in as a nice fourth outfielder with arguably more offensive upside than Josh Anderson, Mitch Maier, or Willie Bloomquist (and for less money). If Coats does make the opening day roster, keep him in mind for possible steals in AL-only leagues.

The Toronto Blue Jays were expected to ink veteran shortstop John McDonald to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, but instead it turned out to be a two-year, $3 million deal, making the decision even worse than it was. Yes, Marco Scutaro is on his way out of town (for two much-needed, high draft picks) but the club could have found a better way to spend $3 million. Although the sample size is small, UZR suggests McDonald is no longer a gifted fielder, and that he’s still getting paid based on his reputation from years past. And offensively, he’s a black hole. If he ends up getting the starting – or even a platoon – gig in Toronto, do not – under any circumstance – consider him in your deepest of deep fantasy leagues. His 0.7% walk rate from ’09 is good for a chuckle, though.

Perhaps the most intriguing move of the day was the waiver claim of Radhames Liz. The hard-throwing right-hander was picked up by San Diego from Baltimore, which was obviously having Daniel Cabrera flashbacks. The 26-year-old Liz has a killer fastball, in terms of velocity, but he has troubles finding the plate on most nights. This past season, he threw well in eight double-A starts, but imploded in triple-A and the Majors. He had three shots at the Majors with Baltimore over the span of three seasons and failed them all, compiling a 6.26 FIP (7.50 ERA) along the way in 110.1 innings. Despite sitting around 92-94 mph, Liz has never had success in the Majors with his heater – or his 84 mph change-up. His slider has shown the most promise in limited showings, with a rate of -0.2 wSL. San Diego, which plays in a cavernous park, could be the best thing to happen to Liz in his pro career. If he can show enough command/control in spring training, he could develop into a power arm for the bullpen… But it is a big “If.” Liz is certainly not a fantasy option at this point, but don’t forget the name just yet.

Catcher A.J. Pierzynski will enter his free agent walk year in 2010 as one of the Top 10 catchers in fantasy baseball. The soon-to-be 33-year-old backstop had a solid offensive season in ’09 by hitting .300/.331/.425 in 504 at-bats. One of the nice things about Pierzynski is his reliability, which is something you do not often get from catchers in fantasy baseball. He’s appeared in 130+ games in seven of the last eight seasons and he’s hit at least 11 homers in each season during that time frame, save for 2002 when he managed just six. He also made contact 8% more often than the league average last season.

On the negative side of Pierzynski, he does not drive in many runs with fewer than 70 RBIs in each of the past five seasons, bottoming out at just 49 in ’09. As well, he won’t help you if your league rewards players for walks (24 in ’09) or on-base percentage (He’s been below .320 in two of the past three seasons).

The biggest threat to Pierzynski is not injury; it is Tyler Flowers. The youngster is one of the club’s top prospects and he just happens to be a catcher. Like Pierzynski, Flowers is an offensive-minded catcher, who hit .286/.364/.438 in 105 triple-A at-bats before receiving a cup of coffee in the Majors with 16 big-league at-bats. Earlier in the season, Flowers hit .302/.445/.548 in 248 at-bats. His 18.7% walk rate and .246 ISO were encouraging numbers and neither was out of line with what he’s produced in the past. Flowers, who was obtained from Atlanta in the Javier Vazquez deal, needs to trim his strikeout rates (30.6% in double-A) if he’s going to hit for average in the Majors.

Is probably safe to assume Pierzynski will be gone from Chicago in 2011, if he wants a guaranteed full-time job. Flowers is one of those prospects that you make room for… surely even Kenny Williams can realize that. For 2010, Pierzynski should continue to gain plenty of playing time with Cole Armstrong as the only other catcher currently on the 40-man roster. Flowers should see significant time behind the dish in triple-A unless Pierzynski is injured or the White Sox tank and the veteran is flipped at the trading deadline.

It’s an interesting situation in Chicago because Pierzynski should remain a solid fantasy player in 2010, while Flowers is one of best fantasy catching prospects in the game. If you have a keeper league squad, snap him up for 2011. If you’re looking for a solid, reliable offensive catcher for 2010 in regular leagues, and don’t want to waste a premium pick on a catcher, consider Pierzynski.

The 33-year-old Randy Wolf is allegedly drawing a lot of interest on the free agent market. The southpaw had a solid season in ’09 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He posted a 3.23 ERA (3.96 FIP) but threw 200+ innings for just the first time since 2003, so his durability is in question and teams looking to sign him to a three- or four-year deal could be disappointed. Luckily, most fantasy managers will be making just a one-year commitment to Wolf.

He showed solid control in ’09 with a walk rate of just 2.44 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is definitely not at the elite level at 6.72 K/9. His contact rate was also about 4% above league average in ’09, so that should be monitored heading into 2010.

Wolf was basically a fastball-curveball pitcher in ’09, in terms of quality pitches. His fastball was as good as it’s been since ’03 with a rate of 29.3 wFB (showing velocity is definitely not everything), and his curveball was snapping at an all-time best rate of 8.8 wCB. Wolf will likely need to find a little more success from his slider or change-up if he’s going to continue to dominate hitters three or four times through the order – especially if he mistakenly makes his way to the American League.

It’s safe to say, though, that any pitcher that is coming off of a 200 IP season is someone to consider, especially considering that he’s improved each year that he’s distanced himself from his surgery. Keep in mind: Over the past three seasons, Wolf has pitched in a pitcher’s park for all but half a season (for Houston) during that span. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher.

Wolf’s 3.0 WAR suggests that he was worth about $13.6 million to the Dodgers in ’09, which was far more than the $8.0 million he earned (when including IP incentives). As a result, expect a pretty significant pay increase in the real world of baseball. In fantasy land, we certainly want to see where Wolf settles before we starting predicting where he should be drafted.

Seattle is the most likely AL destination, and perhaps the safest AL landing spot for the pitcher if he’s going to post solid fantasy numbers in 2010. The Mets are also considered a possible destination for the hurler, who is one of the Top 3-5 starters on the market. Neither team will likely have a huge (positive) impact on Wolf’s win totals. Wolf likely has one or two more seasons where he’ll pitch at the level of a mid-tier starter.