Mailbag: Josh Hamilton vs Carlos Beltran
Reader Neil S. asks:
“I have a keeper league dilemma involving chronically injured players. My offense is possibly the weakest in my head-to-head keeper league, and I was planning on keeping [Carlos] Beltran until the recent surgery (we don’t have to announce our eight keepers until early March). But Josh Hamilton is also an option for me. So my question is – is it worth taking a shot on Hamilton bouncing back, or should I take Beltran’s more reliable production numbers, even if he’s going to miss a significant chunk of the year?
I’m keeping HanRam, Texeira, and Bay (though, of course, I’m worried about the hit his numbers will take at the new field), and four of the following five pitchers: Lester, Johnson, Hamels, Cain, and Hanson. Clearly, I’m much better positioned to go forward with my pitchers than I am with my hitters.”
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Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
The one confounding variable that would really scare me about Hamilton was that there was some speculation about that his past crack-cocaine abuse has taken a very terrible toll on his body, so he may be injury prone for the rest of his career however short that may be
With that being said, on that alone, I think that Beltran may actually be lower risk to get instead of Hamilton. Otherwise in an ideal sense, I pretty much agree with everything in the article.
I am staying far, far away from Beltran in 2010 and beyond. His knee is something that could affect the rest of his career with some wondering if he’ll be able to play center effectively again.
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus wrote a few times about Beltran’s knee late last season. Let’s just say there was very little, if any, optimism in his words.
I wonder though, which pitcher would you drop? I think it would be between Cain and Hamels, and I personally would ditch Cain.
I have another question. Does it have to come down to Hamilton and Beltran? Are there no other options? Personally, if allowed by his rules, couldn’t you keep all the pitchers and try to go OF heavy in the opening rounds? Maybe that’s just my opinion.
I could go with 5 pitchers, yes. So there is a question of whether Cain is more valuable to keep than Beltran/Hamilton. I’m thinking of keeping a hitter, though, because a) Cain’s numbers are bound to regress, maybe a lot, and there are plenty of high-upside pitchers available, and b) Beltran and Hamilton have more upside then I’m going to find in the draft, even with the big question marks.
I would keep Cain and try to find a less risky OF. Saying that Cain’s numbers are bound to regress is a pretty bold statement. He has always outperformed his peripherals suggesting that he may not fit the classic mold for predicting future performance. He’s still only 25 years and is still developing his secondary pitches while maintaining the strong fastball. He may not put up a sub 3 ERA again, but he will give you a whole lot of quality starts with strong K’s.
He’s outperformed his xFIP, which is no surprise because he pitches in a pitcher’s park. He’s always performed right alongside his FIP until last year, when his FIP was good and his ERA was great because of his BABIP and LOB%. He’s still the same pitcher he’s always been, and he’s going to go right back to an ERA in the high 3s until he moves on to a less-favorable park.
i’d definitely lean to dropping beltran and cain. beltran plays in petco east (fewer hrs) and he gains a lot of his value from steals (obviously down this upcoming year). and cain has the least upside of the pitchers IMO.
i’m in a similar position with 2 (or 3 at the expense of my 1st rounder) keepers left in the air. already got howard,kemp, kinsler. debating between hamels/kershaw/hanson and aram/hamilton/adam jones. i’d appreciate any input (12 team h2h 5×5).
PETCO East is a media created myth. Citi played fairly neutral for HR’s allowed to right-handed hitters, and regressed HR’s to lefties by under 10% in comparison to a neutral ballpark.
Show,
IMO I would keep either hamels/hanson and jones, or both pitchers. Hamels peripherals were actually strong last year and he is bound for a much better fantasy year in the coming year. Hanson is also a pitcher who will be a stud for a very long time. Hamels will be better in 2010, but not the long run so giving up Hanson is a tough move. As far as batters go, Jones is the younger player out of the 3 batters playing in a hitters park and at 24 still is getting better. ARam is old and an injury risk and Hamilton is obviously an even bigger injury risk coming into the next year. I personally would keep Hamels and Hanson if your league rules allow it, but understand the emphasis on batting and would consider Jones to be a good pick as well.
When it comes down too it. You have to equate who is more likely to be more available if you don’t keep them. There’s aplenty of pitchers with upside. So i would stick with your two choices of Beltran vs. Hamilton. Hamilton is going over 3 rds sooner. So we know that Beltran would be easier to retain via the draft. Plus we can expect his ADP to continue to drop so there may be potentially x more amount of rds to retain him than Hamilton. And if you really like him than you can grab him earlier. Something you couldn’t as easily do with Hamilton. So go Hamilton.
Who is this Eno Sarris you speak of?
So as to add value to the individual asking the question…you’re not in a good spot. Drop one of the two, and take the first pick in your draft. As was made clear (and I believe will be made so over the next two months), Beltran is a statistical liability. Will I back this up with stats? No. To suggest an off-surgery mid 30 year old CF will contribute to your fantasy team more so than a player in an offensive sober environment (ha OK semi sober environment) is, IMO, ill advised. Gamble on the rebound, not the return to top out.
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