Welcome to our first installment of the Deep Keepers series at RotoGraphs. Today, we’ll take a quick peek at four prospects who had impressive minor league Opening Day performances last night.

Mike Montgomery | LHP | Kansas City Royals: With young pitchers Zack Greinke and Luke Hochevar rolling along in Kansas City right now, Montgomery has the next highest ceiling in the organization (sorry, Aaron Crow). The left-hander had a dazzling 2010 debut against Atlanta’s high-A affiliate and he allowed just two hits and one walk in 5.0 innings of work. He struck out six batters and induced six ground-ball outs.

Randall Delgado | RHP | Atlanta Braves: Montgomery’s opponent on Thursday night, Delgado was equally as impressive and he allowed just three hits and did not walk a batter in 5.0 innings. He struck out five hitters and saw seven balls scooped up his infield defense. Just 20, Delgado has good fastball velo, solid control for his age, and does a good job of getting ground-ball outs. There is some thought that Delgado may be destined for a bullpen job at the MLB level, but I think he can stick in the starting rotation.

Ike Davis | 1B | New York Mets: As we mentioned in our most recent Podcast on the FanGraphs side (available today), Mike Jacobs and Daniel Murphy are not the long-term answers at first base for the New York Mets. They’re just not first division first basemen. Davis, though, could be… especially if he keeps tapping into his power. After failing to hit a home run in his ’08 debut, he slammed 20 last season split between high-A and double-A. The former No. 1 draft pick also just missed ending the season with a .300 batting average. While his teammates struggled during Opening Night 2010, Davis went 3-for-4 and slugged two doubles. He represented 50% of the team’s hits and he was the only Buffalo player that got an extra-base hit.

Brad Emaus | 2B/3B | Toronto Blue Jays: Emaus opened a lot of eyes this spring and actually stuck around camp longer than expected. He’s opening the 2010 season back in double-A, which is where he spent all of ’09. Emaus is being asked to play more third base this season because of the much clearer opening at the MLB level (Aaron Hill is at second, signed to a long-term deal). The infielder does not have more than 15-homer power, but he should hit for a good average with gap power and can even steal five to 10 bases. He also has some versatility that could help out a fantasy roster.

Fantasy managers are no doubt already beginning to panic. Don’t fee bad, I’m currently 10th overall in a 10-team mixed (auction) league. If you’re already combing the waiver wire for help (mind you, it’s far too early to panic), there is some potential value to be found. Add these players to your watch lists if they’re not already there.

Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Toronto (8% owned)
Thankfully in fantasy baseball we don’t have to put up with Encarnacion’s brutal glove, which has already seen him make two errors in as many games. Still just 27, the third baseman has 25+ home run power and the Jays offense around him should be pretty good (it’s the pitching we really have to worry about). His batting average hasn’t been anything special over the past two seasons, but he’s also posted low BABIPs of .264 and .245 so there is plenty of room for improvement in that area. An average walk rate of 10.6% over the past two seasons suggests that Encarnacion has a pretty good eye at the plate and he’s shown a reasonable rate of strikeout in his career (for his power output).

J.J. Hardy | SS | Minnesota (21%)
One bad season all is forgotten in fantasy baseball. Hardy slugged 24 or more home runs in both ’07 and ’08 but slipped to 11 last season and also spent time in the minors. That was still good for the 12th most homers by a shortstop in the Majors in ’09; he has a chance to be more valuable in 2010 than some other ’09 shortstops such as Alexei Ramirez (2.2), Miguel Tejada (2.6), and Jason Bartlett (4.8), all of whom are owned in most leagues. Just 27, he’s poised for a rebirth in 2010 as a member of the Twins. Despite his struggles, Hardy has seen his walk rate improve each of the past three seasons.

Nick Johnson | DH | New York (23%)
I have to admit a little shock at the fact that Johnson is only owned by 23% of fantasy managers. He’s a proven veteran who just happens to be hitting at the top of a potent lineup. It must be the injury thing. I understand that but, when he’s healthy, Johnson can be a real benefit to a fantasy team in teams of runs scored and batting average. He even has 15-20 home run potential. If you’re playing in an on-base league, then you really should have the Walking Man. Johnson’s walk rate was 17.2% last season, third highest in the Majors last year and just behind Adrian Gonzalez and Adam Dunn. Interestingly, Johnson had just four intentional walks, while Gonzalez had 22 and Dunn had 16.

Mat Latos | RHP | San Diego (14%)
Youth + Power arm + Cavernous Park = Potential Stud. The 22-year-old Latos appears to be one of the best kept secrets in baseball. Everyone is jumping up and down about the Stephen Strasburgs and the Tommy Hansons, but they’re overlooking this kid. The right-hander held his own in 10 big league starts for the Padres in ’09. His walk rate of 4.09 BB/9 in the Majors was a tad high but was solid in the minors… especially for his age. He also displayed positive values on three of his four pitches. If he can show a little better control and improve ground-ball rate (36.1) he will be an absolute beast.

Ownership numbers courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

We took a look at the National League closers earlier today. Now it’s time to see how the American League firemen look for Week 1 of the 2010 MLB season.

The Top Tier

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club opened the season against Boston last night and will then head to Tampa Bay to finish the week. You can expect Mariano to help close out a game or two (or three) this week despite the stiff competition.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: After what will no doubt be a grueling series against New York, things will get a little easier for the club as it heads to Kansas City.

The Middle Tier

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Although it will have the home field advantage all week, the club could be in tough against both the re-tooled Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox. This may not be a great week to start Soria as your No. 1 closer.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Health Report: Knee soreness
The Comments: The A’s club will be busy this week with seven games in as many days, so Bailey could see a few save opportunities. The team will be at home with Seattle for four games before heading out to Los Angeles.

The Third Tier

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: It’s an AL East week with the club hosting the Orioles and then the New York Yankees. Soriano could have a save opportunity or two against Baltimore but things will definitely get tougher against New York.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Valverde could be a busy man this week as the Tigers club is set to face the Kansas City Royals and the Cleveland Indians. You can’t ask for a more favorable start to the season. If you have Valverde, get him in your fantasy lineup.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Health Report: Returning from calf injury
The Comments: Jenks may not be at 100% but he’ll be able to ease into things against the Cleveland Indians. The club will then face a stiffer challenge when it hosts the Twins.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club does not project to score a lot of runs this season so if it can keep the Oakland and Texas hitters off the score sheet then Aardsma could have some save opportunities this week.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Angels will open the year by hosting the Twins and the A’s. It should be two exciting series, which could result in some close games.

Frank Francisco | Texas Rangers
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Rangers will open the year by hosting the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners. Texas certainly has the firepower to beat up on Toronto’s unproven pitching. Seattle’s pitching staff has a lot of question marks, too.

Mike Gonzalez | Baltimore Orioles
The Health Report: Recovering from back injury
The Comments: The club will have to scratch and claw for wins against the talent, young Rays team. Things get easier when Toronto comes to town for the weekend, although both clubs are basically in rebuilding mode.

Jason Frasor | Toronto Blue Jays
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Toronto will open the year in Texas and then head to Baltimore. The first series could be tough if Texas’ hitters are on their game. Things get a little easier with the relocation to Baltimore, but there are some talented, young players on that club.

The Fill-Ins

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club will face a tough opening week on the road against Los Angeles and then Chicago. Rauch will be in tough against two promising teams; he’ll also be looking to prove that the club does not need to go out and trade for Heath Bell.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Indians club does not project as one of the top teams in the AL Central this season and the club could be in tough to begin the year. Perez will be in tough against both the White Sox and the Tigers if his team can get a lead to him for the ninth inning.

There hasn’t been much movement amongst the closers since we took a look last week, but here is a quick look at how the closers for each National League club match up during Week 1 of the MLB 2010 season.

The Top Tier

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Broxton could be in line to carve up some saves as the club lines up against Pittsburgh and Florida for the first week of the season. On the down side, the club may score too many runs – especially against the lowly Pirates.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Well, he’s still in San Diego. The club will open the year on the road and the offense could be flowing with trips to Arizona and Colorado so save opportunities may be hard to come by for Bell.

The Middle Tier

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Giants club will face the Astros (in Houston) and Braves (in San Francisco) during the first week of the season. The club matches up well against Houston and should be able to take at least two wins. It will be a tougher series against Atlanta, but that could also make for some close games.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Health Report: Recovered from pink eye
The Comments: It would be understandable if Rodriguez’ head was somewhere else this week after two of his brothers were seriously injured in an automobile accident. Series against the Marlins and Nationals could result in a number of save opportunities.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The team will be in tough in Atlanta and will face three solid pitchers. The Cubs will then go to Cincinnati. Marmol had a rough spring and is probably on a short leash, but he has some dominating stuff when he can command it.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Reds club will begin the year at home against both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs. Clearly, it will be a challenging first week. Cordero did not allow an earned run in spring training, so he looks to open the season strong.

The Third Tier

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Brewers gave Hoffman a late start to spring training and the oldest closer in the game did not look sharp. The club opens the year at home against the Rockies and the Cardinals so there could a lot of offense.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Braves open the year at home against the Cubs and then head out of the road to San Francisco. The first series should features some close games, which could give Wagner a couple of saves opportunities.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club will be on the road in Cincinnati and Milwaukee and match up well against the two clubs so Franklin should get some early opportunities to prove ’09 was not a fluke.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Qualls looks to be recovered from knee surgery. The club will host the Padres and the Pirates so the Diamondbacks certainly have a chance to win some games in the first week, which should provide Qualls with some save opportunities.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Health Report: Returning from oblique injury
The Comments: The club will be in tough at home against Los Angeles and then on the road in Arizona. Dotel is not the most reliable closer in the game.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club will head to New York for the opening series before returning home to face the Dodgers.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: It will be a tough opening series against the Philadelphia Phillies but things will then get a little easier against the Mets. I don’t foresee a ton of save opportunities in the first week for Capps.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Astros will be in even tougher than the Nationals, as the club is set to face both San Francisco and Philadelphia during the opening week of the season. On the plus side, all six games will be in Houston.

The Fill-Ins

Ryan Madson | Philadelphia Phillies
The Health Report:
The Comments: With Brad Lidge out, Madson will be the go-to guy early on in the season. The youngster could be in line for some save opportunities in the first week of the season with the club matching up well against the Nationals and the Astros.

Franklin Morales | Colorado Rockies
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The club will be on the road against Milwaukee before returning home to face San Diego on the weekend. Morales is in line for saves with Huston Street on the DL, but the youngster had a bumpy spring.

I’m going to tread softly on Jeff’s territory today by looking at some of the bigger named prospects that we known are going to miss some significant time in 2010. Most of these players can (or would have been) found amongst their organizations’ Top 15 prospects. Tuck these names away and don’t forget about them once they get healthy, especially if you’re playing in a keeper league.

Jared Mitchell | OF | White Sox: Ankle surgery will sideline the White Sox’ top amateur draft pick from 2009 for the entire season after be injured himself in a spring training game. Mitchell appeared in 34 low-A games in his pro debut and posted a .396 wOBA with a strikeout rate of 34.8%. His raw for a college pick so the missed time could hurt. The injury moves fellow ’09 draft pick Trayce Thompson up the depth chart in the White Sox system.

Chris Pettit | OF | Angels: I feel bad for Pettit. He had a good shot at breaking camp with the Angels and, at 25 years of age, he’s no spring chicken. Now the former college senior signee out of Loyola Marymount will miss the entire 2010 season thanks to shoulder surgery. In 365 minor league games, Pettit has a .313 batting average and projects to be a solid platoon or No. 4 outfielder. Fellow prospects Terry Evans (immediately) and Peter Bourjos (later this season) stand to benefit.

Ryan Westmoreland | OF | Red Sox: Perhaps the most unfortunate injury of them all, Westmoreland recently underwent brain surgery for a life-threatening condition. There has been little said what impact this will have on his promising baseball career, but the good news is that he’s making progress. Reymond Fuentes, the club’s ’09 No. 1 draft pick, would have played with Westmoreland in low-A ball this season.

Mat Gamel | 3B | Brewers: A shoulder injury will sideline Gamel at least through the month of April, which will give Casey McGehee a head start on securing the third base job in Milwaukee. On the plus side, McGehee is overrated. On the downside, Gamel might be, too. A poor defensive third baseman, the prospect is likely headed for a position switch but he did not impress during his first taste of MLB action in ’09 by posting a .332 wOBA. Taylor Green is another player that could benefit from the injury.

A.J. Pollock | OF | Diamondbacks: Pollock is another ’09 first round draft pick that has suffered a serious injury. The outfielder will miss up to three months with a fracture in his elbow. Pollock had a modest pro debut in ’09 at low-A ball. He posted a .324 wOBA in 277 at-bats. Fellow ’09 draft picks Marc Krauss and Keon Broxton will have some time to scramble past Pollock on the depth chart.

Junichi Tazawa | RHP | Red Sox: The most recent big-named prospect to have his season ruined by injury, Tazawa will undergo Tommy John surgery in the very near future and miss the entire 2010 season, and perhaps part of ’11. It’s too bad, as the Japanese import made it to the Majors in his first pro season and would have battled Michael Bowden as the first starter recalled in the event of an injury to the big league rotation.

Jordan Brown | 1B | Indians: Last year, I listed Brown as one of the top underrated prospects in the game and stated that he deserved a shot to play in the Majors. Repeating triple-A, he then went out and hit .336/.381/.532 with a wOBA of .397 in 455 at-bats. The knock on Brown has been his lack of prototypical power for a first baseman, but he could easily have a career similar to Sean Casey (another former Indian). Brown will likely miss the first two months of the season after undergoing knee surgery. Matt LaPorta will man first base in Cleveland while Beau Mills will have some time to try and rebuild his prospect status in the upper minors.

Dellin Betances | RHP | Yankees: The Yankees right-hander actually had Tommy John surgery back in August but he’s expected to miss most, if not all, of 2010. That actually might be a good thing, as he’ll be Rule 5 eligible after the season, so the organization may want to keep him in rehab for the entire season so other organizations cannot get a good read on his health.

Desmond Jennings | OF | Rays: One of the best offensive prospects in baseball, Jennings is currently dealing with a wrist injury. His injury status is not considered serious at this point, but wrist injuries have a tendency to linger, which could affect him for longer than some might think. The injury could buy Matt Joyce (who is also dealing with an injury) some more time to establish himself in the Rays outfield.

If there are any key prospects not mentioned that project to miss more than two months time in 2010, feel free to mention it in the comments section.

For those of you that have never given an auction league draft a try, I highly recommend that you do so this year – there are still plenty of public leagues looking for fantasy managers. Yahoo Fantasy Baseball has free live auction drafts for the first time and I joined a random league yesterday and participated in the auction draft. It’s also designed to help those who are uncomfortable with auction values, as the draft program tells you A) The estimated player’s value, as well as B) The average going rate this draft season.

In this draft we had a 10-team league (with a $260 budget) and three managers failed to show up, which was disappointing because it meant we had to battle three automated picks. The evil computer bid hard and fast early in the draft with one team snapping up Tim Lincecum ($47), Roy Halladay ($41), Ryan Howard ($36), Chase Utley ($33), and Evan Longoria ($33). That, of course, is a lot of money to spend on five players on a 21-man roster and it ended up with 13 $1 players.

My player nomination approach was fairly simply. I tossed up players I had little-to-no interest in as an effort to get the fantasy managers to blow their cash in bidding wars. I also looked to get the mangers to fill up at certain positions so that when the player that I really wanted came up, many of the teams had already filled that spot.

The most expensive player taken was Albert Pujols at a whopping $55. I did not get involved in the bidding. My top five spends were Upton, Ian Kinsler ($27), Grady Sizemore ($24 – I think he’ll rebound and be a steal), Jimmy Rollins ($20), and Joey Votto ($22). My biggest over-spend was $11 for Jason Heyward but I left $14 on the table at the end of the draft so I feel pretty good about the gamble.

I did not worry too much about pitching; my big man in the rotation is Ricky Nolasco ($17) and I grabbed Joakim Soria ($11) as my closer. My worst pick was wasting $3 and a roster spot on Ben Sheets, but to be honest I was trying to push the bidding and no one bit… so I only have myself to blame. The biggest blow is that I wanted to use that roster spot for a $1 buy on sleeper Ian Kennedy. I also ended up with too many first basemen with Votto, Derek Lee (for $18, which I considered good value at the time), and Carlos Pena ($5 was too good to pass up, yet again).

As a thrifty shopper, I was also thrilled to get Curtis Granderson ($14), Scott Baker ($7), Matt Garza ($3), Carlos Quentin ($2), Elvis Andrus ($2), Dan Uggla ($2), and John Danks ($1). You can round my roster out with Pablo Sandoval ($19), Mike Napoli ($1) and David Aardsma ($6). I ended up with a good mix of speed and power even though I went with well-rounded players rather than wasting space on one-dimensional sluggers (Pena, aside) and hollow-batted speedsters.

The one player I really, really wanted and didn’t get was Brett Anderson. I was laying in the weeds on him for the entire draft and he didn’t get nominated until the 18th round. I was feeling pretty good about it, as I had $23 in my pocked with two players left to get and I was OK with spending $1 on the other spot (a reliever… it would have been Kennedy). I had Anderson for $3 right up until four seconds before the bidding expired and then a bidding war ensured with my now least favorite person in the world and I lost Anderson at $22 (about double his estimated value). Garza was a pretty good consolation prize, and a steal for three bucks.

If you’d like to share any good auction draft stories, feel free to post ’em… and if you have any auction draft questions, feel free to ask.

Earlier this week we opened our 2010 Closer Report series with a look at the American League closers. Today, we’re looking at the National League.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (#3 in MLB)
The Man: Jonathan Broxton
The Pitch: 97 mph fastball (1.45 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Broxton enters his second full season as the Dodgers’ closer and he could be primed for a 40-save season. He’s almost impossible to hit (44 hits in 76.0 innings, 13.50 K/9). Sherrill is a pretty good short-term insurance policy, but not long-term.

The Back-up(s): George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso
The Future: Josh Lindblom, Kenley Jansen

2. San Francisco Giants (#5 in MLB)
The Man: Brian Wilson
The Pitch: 96 mph fastball (1.64 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Wilson has 79 saves over the past two seasons and showed significant improvement from ’08 to ’09, which is very encouraging. Along with 35+ saves, he should produce a 10.00+ strikeout rate (K/9) in 2010.

The Back-up(s): Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo
The Future: Waldis Joaquin, Dan Runzler

3. San Diego Padres (#6 in MLB)
The Man: Heath Bell
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball (1.72 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Bell has been a quality reliever for the Padres but he could be on the move by the trade deadline if a desperate club matches the organization’s demands. Another 40-save season could be in order.

The Back-up(s): Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams
The Future: Unclear

4. New York Mets (#7 in MLB)
The Man: Francisco Rodriguez
The Pitch: Change-up (3.44 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Recovering from pink eye
The Comments: Rodriguez has pretty much remade his approach over the past two seasons by ditching his slider and focusing on his curveball and change-up as his secondary pitches. The change-up has developed into a real weapon for him. Keep an eye on him, though, as his numbers are starting to erode (5.03 BB/9, lowest K/9 of his career).

The Back-up(s): Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green
The Future: Unclear

5. Chicago Cubs (#9 in MLB)
The Man: Carlos Marmol
The Pitch: Slider (1.12 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: With the inconsistent Kevin Gregg now in Toronto, the closer’s gig in Chicago belongs solely to Marmol. If he can find the plate (7.91 BB/9 in ’09), Marmol could be an impact closer, as he’s been almost impossible to hit over the past two seasons (83 hits in 161.1 innings).

The Back-up(s): John Grabow, Jeff Samardzija
The Future: Esmailin Caridad, Marcos Mateo

6. Cincinnati Reds (#10 in MLB)
The Man: Francisco Cordero
The Pitch: 95 mph fastball (1.17 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Cordero has tallied 34+ saves in five of the past six seasons, and a total of 117 over the past three years. On the downside, his strikeout rate has dropped from 12.22 to 9.98 to 7.83 K/9.

The Back-up(s): Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset
The Future: Brad Boxberger

7. Colorado Rockies (#13 in MLB)
The Man: Huston Street
The Pitch: Slider (4.46 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Injured (Shoulder, 2-4 weeks)
The Comments: Street rediscovered his closer’s touch in ’09 with the Rockies and blew just two saves in 37 opportunities. He also showed improved control and posted a 10.22 K/9 rate. His fly-ball tendencies are mildly concerning, as is the shoulder discomfort, which should keep him out for at least half of April.

The Back-up(s): Franklin Morales, Manny Corpas
The Future: Franklin Morales, Rex Brothers

8. Milwaukee Brewers (#15 in MLB)
The Man: Trevor Hoffman
The Pitch: Change-up (3.95 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy (but old)
The Comments: The 42-year-old vet had a huge bounce-back season in ’09 with 37 saves in 41 opportunities. He should break 600 career saves by the middle or end of May.

The Back-up(s): Todd Coffey, LaTroy Hawkins
The Future: Zach Braddock

9. Atlanta Braves (#18 in MLB)
The Man: Billy Wagner
The Pitch: Slider (3.72 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Upper-respiratory illness
The Comments: Wagner, 38, is nearing the end of a great career. He’s pitched in just 62 games over the past two seasons so you have to be worried about his durability.

The Back-up(s): Takashi Saito, Pete Moylan
The Future: Craig Kimbrel

10. St. Louis Cardinals (#20 in MLB)
The Man: Ryan Franklin
The Pitch: Cutter (2.04 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Franklin was a real good story in ’09 by saving 38 games in 43 tries for the Cardinals – He entered the season with just 18 career saves. Be wary of the 37-year-old hurler, who is likely to be over-valued on draft day.

The Back-up(s): Jason Motte
The Future: Jason Motte, Eduardo Sanchez

11. Arizona Diamondbacks (#22 in MLB)
The Man: Chad Qualls
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball (0.55 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy, but coming off knee surgery
The Comments: The 31-year-old Qualls saved 24 games in ’09 – the first time he’s reached double-digits in saves in his career. He’s by no means an over-powering reliever, but the team should hand him a large number of opportunities.

The Back-up(s): Bob Howry, Juan Gutierrez
The Future: Traded away (Daniel Schlereth)

12. Pittsburgh Pirates (#23 in MLB)
The Man: Octavio Dotel
The Pitch: Slider (1.44 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Minor oblique injury
The Comments: Dotel has closing experience, but he’s coming off a season with the White Sox in which he recorded zero saves. Despite that, he’s posted a K/9 rate of 10.83 or better in each of the past three seasons. He’s injury-prone and not getting any younger (36).

The Back-up(s): Joel Hanrahan, Brendan Donnelly
The Future: Unclear

13. Florida Marlins (#24 in MLB)
The Man: Leo Nunez
The Pitch: Slider (1.55 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Nunez is the club’s undisputed closer simply because the organization has no one better. The right-hander saved 26 games last year but blew seven saves and he’s been pretty bad this spring.

The Back-up(s): Dan Meyer, Taylor Tankersley
The Future: Ryan Tucker

14. Washington Nationals (#25 in MLB)
The Man: Matt Capps
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball (-0.63 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Capps is coming off of back-to-back 20+ save seasons with Pittsburgh but his fastball value has been on a steady decline from 2.22 to 1.73 to -0.63 wFB/C. His secondary pitches were also inconsistent in ’09 and Capps has not performed well this spring.

The Back-up(s): Brian Bruney, Jason Bergmann
The Future: Drew Storen

15. Philadelphia Phillies (#26 in MLB)
The Man: Brad Lidge
The Pitch: 95 mph fastball (1.07 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Knee/Elbow injuries (Out 2-4 weeks)
The Comments: Lidge is likely to miss the first part of April while recovering from off-season surgeries. Considering how toxic he was last season, Lidge could permanently lose his job to Ryan Madson if the youngster can establish himself early on.

The Back-up(s): Ryan Madson, Danys Baez
The Future: Ryan Madson, Scott Mathieson

16. Houston Astros (#28 in MLB)
The Man: Matt Lindstrom
The Pitch: 96 mph fastball (-0.80 runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: For a team that spent as much money this past off-season on the bullpen, the Astros organization is in pretty poor shape (which speaks volumes). Lindstrom failed miserably as the Marlins’ closer in ’09 but he was battling injuries so we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt… for now.

The Back-up(s): Brandon Lyon, Sammy Gervacio
The Future: Sammy Gervacio, Chia-Jen Lo

Welcome to the first official RotoGraphs Closer Report for 2010. It’s been an eventful spring for closers already, with a handful of firemen already hitting the DL. The loss of Minnesota’s Joe Nathan has been the biggest blow so far.

1. New York Yankees (#1 in MLB)
The Man: Mariano Rivera
The Pitch: Cutter, 2.03 wCT/c (runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: He’s a frickin’ robot
The Comments: If you squint really, really hard you can see some possible signs of decline (highest FIP since 2000, highest HR/9 in his career) but you can also come up with explanations for the numbers. In truth, there really is nothing here that suggests a decline is coming in 2010 for the 40 year old.

The Back-up(s): Joba Chamberlain
The Future: Joba Chamberlain

2. Boston Red Sox (2)
The Man: Jonathan Papelbon
The Pitch: 95 mph fastball, 1.43 wFB/c
The Health Report: He’s had shoulder woes in the past
The Comments: Papelbon wasn’t able to follow up on his outstanding ’08 season but he could see more success in 2010 if he can get his ground-ball rate back up around 50% (It was at 26.7% in ’09). His fastball value has diminished over the past three seasons and it’s worth monitoring.

The Back-up(s): Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard
The Future: Daniel Bard

3. Kansas City Royals (4)
The Man: Joakim Soria
The Pitch: Curveball, 4.86 wCB/c
The Health Report: Shoulder woes derailed him in ’09
The Comments: With a significant drop in fastball value, Soria may want to rely on his breaking ball a little more often in 2010 (12% in ’09) if the heater doesn’t rebound. Even with his health woes and loss of success with his fastball, Soria struck out batters at a career-high rate: 11.72 K/9.

The Back-up(s): Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz
The Future: Joakim Soria

4. Oakland Athletics (8)
The Man: Andrew Bailey
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball, 2.10 wFB/c
The Health Report: All systems go
The Comments: Bailey allowed just 49 hits in 83.1 innings of work in ’09 and he displayed the best control of his pro career (2.59 BB/9). Some regression is to be expected during his sophomore season so don’t overpay for his services.

The Back-up(s): Brad Ziegler
The Future: Bailey is the present and the future.

5. Tampa Bay Rays (11)
The Man: Rafael Soriano
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, 1.42 wFB/c
The Health Report: Checkered past, but healthy this spring
The Comments: The Rays desperately need a healthy season from Soriano as the club has already lost J.P. Howell (17 saves in ’09) to injury. Even without considering his past health issues, Soriano is a high-risk, high-reward closer who has only had double-digit saves once in his eight-season career (27 in ’09).

The Back-up(s): Dan Wheeler
The Future: Jacob McGee

6. Detroit Tigers (12)
The Man: Jose Valverde
The Pitch: 96 mph fastball, 0.75 wFB/c
The Health Report: His ’09 calf injury is not considered chronic
The Comments: After back-to-back 40+ save seasons in ’07 and ’08, Valverde slipped to just 25 in ’09. Despite having good heat, the closer’s fastball has never been a dominating pitch; his splitter has potential but it’s inconsistent. He’ll be joining the American League in 2010 for the first time in his career.

The Back-up(s): Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya
The Future: Ryan Perry and/or Daniel Schlereth

7. Chicago White Sox (14)
The Man: Bobby Jenks
The Pitch: Curveball, 3.87 wCB/c
The Health Report: Struggling with a calf injury
The Comments: After saving 40+ games in each of his first two seasons as closer, Jenks has dipped to 30 and 29 over the past two seasons. A calf injury kept fellow closer Jose Valverde out for almost two months in ’09 so Matt Thornton could be pressed into duty, which may not be a bad thing; he might be a better closer option even if Jenks was healthy.

The Back-up(s): Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz
The Future: TBD

8. Seattle Mariners (16)
The Man: David Aardsma
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball, 1.78 wFB/c
The Health Report: Some groin soreness, but relatively healthy
The Comments: Given a legitimate shot to close at the MLB level for the first time in his career, Aardsma did not disappoint with 38 in 42 tries. He allowed just 49 hits in 71.1 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 10.09 K/9. Aardsma has a history of inconsistency and control issues (4.29 BB/9 in ’09), though.

The Back-up(s): Mark Lowe, Brandon League
The Future: TBD

9. Los Angeles Angels (17)
The Man: Brian Fuentes
The Pitch: 90 mph fastball, 0.81 wFB/c
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Angels clubs always seems to get save opportunities for its closer and Fuentes led the Majors in saves in ’09 with 48. The 34-year-old reliever doesn’t have the most dominating stuff, but he’s saved 20 or more games over the past five seasons. His fastball was his only positive-valued pitch in ’09.

The Back-up(s): Fernando Rodney
The Future: Kevin Jepsen (Hat tip to Jeremy Greenhouse)

10. Texas Rangers (19)
The Man: Frank Francisco
The Pitch: Splitter, 1.45 wSF/c
The Health Report: Looking good
The Comments: Mr. Inconsistent has all the ingredients to be a successful closer but he needs to put it all together and keep his head screwed on straight. The 29.5% ground-ball rate from ’09 scares me more than a little bit.

The Back-up(s): C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray
The Future: Tanner Scheppers

11. Baltimore Orioles (21)
The Man: Mike Gonzalez
The Pitch: Slider, 1.09 wSL/c
The Health Report: Wonky back, and he missed big parts of ’07 and ’08 (TJ surgery)
The Comments: Gonzalez got good money to sign as the club’s closer but he played second fiddle to Rafael Soriano in Atlanta last season and the former Pirate blew seven saves in 17 opportunities. Even so, he has the stuff to close if his control is anywhere close to average.

The Back-up(s): Jim Johnson, Koji Uehara
The Future: Kam Mickolio or Brandon Erbe

12. Toronto Blue Jays (27)
The Man: Kevin Gregg
The Pitch: 92 mph fastball, 0.59 wFB/c
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Gregg may walk a rotting tight rope during each save opportunity, but the dude is durable after appearing in 70+ games each of the past three seasons. He’s also blown 16 saves over the past two seasons (68 opportunities). Jason Frasor is likely trade bait by the end of the spring if the Jays get a good offer and there are clubs that could use his help.

The Back-up(s): Scott Downs, Jason Frasor
The Future: Zach Stewart and/or Danny Farquhar

13. Cleveland Indians (29)
The Man: Kerry Wood
The Pitch: Curveball, 1.61 wCB/c
The Health Report: Down and out for 6-8 weeks (lat muscle)
The Comments: Wood knows the infirmary well, but this injury may be a good thing. The club is not going to win in 2010 so some of the young pitchers might as well gain some valuable, late-game experience. Chris Perez has the pedigree and is coming off of a successful sophomore season, but he also has control (4.26 BB/9) and gopher (1.26 HR/9) issues.

The Back-up(s): Chris Perez, Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez
The Future: Chris Perez and/or Jess Todd

14. Minnesota Twins (30)
The Man: Joe Nathan
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, 1.66 wFB/c
The Health Report: Done for 2010 and into 2011
The Comments: Nathan was trying to avoid it, but finally gave in on Sunday and is headed for Tommy John surgery. Mijares is young and inexperienced, but he has a good fastball/slider combination. Guerrier is more about pitchability than pure stuff but he could have success pounding the strike zone with three quality pitches.

The Back-up(s): Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier
The Future: Carlos Gutierrez and/or Billy Bullock

Up Next: The National League Closers

The Washington Nationals organization announced today that top 2009 draft picks Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen will both begin the year in double-A. Strasburg is considered the future face of the organization (if he isn’t already) and a sure-fire No. 1 starter, while Storen is considered the club’s closer of the future.

So what does this news mean to fantasy baseball managers?

Most importantly, it means that you’re going to have to be patient. The former San Diego State hurler was the club’s most dominating starter this spring but it was a smart decision from a business perspective, as well as a player development angle. Why rush him? The club is not going to win in 2010… so it’s going to try to keep him around (and cost controlled) for as long as possible.

From a fan perspective, it means more pitching mediocrity for the Nationals rotation. The motley crew is likely to include Garrett Mock, John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen, and J.D. Martin. There are a couple of names there for deep NL-only leagues, but the pickings are slim in mixed leagues.

Strasburg is probably not going to be in the minors long, based on how he looked this spring (and in the Arizona Fall League). He’ll likely be up by June at the latest, which means you need to keep yourself in a favorable waiver situation in your league for when the inevitable call comes. Once he’s up, Strasburg could very well pitch at the level of a Top 15 starter. He could be the exact type of waiver wire player that helps push a fantasy team over the hump in the second half of the season. The one downside to keep in mind, though, is that he’s playing for the Nationals (and the club is likely to monitor his innings) so the wins could be hard to come by.

As for Storen, young closers are quite volatile. They tend to burn out quickly. I also have some concerns over the right-hander’s current lack control issues (three walks in five spring innings, 4.38 BB/9 in 10 double-A games in ’09) so he may not be a reliable closer option for another few seasons. In the meantime, fantasy managers in need of saves will want to keep an eye on Matt Capps and Brian Bruney in Washington. Capps is the early favorite for saves, but he’s struggled this spring. On a team that does not project to score a lot of runs, the eventual closer could have plenty of save opportunities when the club takes a lead into the ninth inning.

Today we’re taking a look at the Top 15 outfielders up for consideration on Fantasy Draft Day. We’ve already had posts for catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen and shortstops.

The Top Targets:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.405 wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.367 wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.388 wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.343 wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.390 wOBA)

Mr. Braun can do a little bit of everything for your fantasy squad. He can hit (.320 average, 203 hits in ’09), he can belt homers (32+ for three straight seasons) and he can run a little (20 steals in ’09). Thanks to some solid companionship in the lineup, he can also drive in and score 100+ runs a season. Add in the fact that’s he’s showing a better approach at the plate each season (walk-, K-rates and o-swing improving), and you have yourself a No. 1 stud outfielder.

The 25-year-old Kemp is zooming up quickly on Braun. He’s gotten better every year and he’s developed into a true 30-30 threat after slamming 26 homers and stealing 34+ bases for the second straight season. Kemp also had his first 100-RBI season in ’09 and he hits in a good, young lineup despite playing in a pitching-friendly park. He’s hit .290 or better in each of the last three seasons.

Upton is similar to Kemp, although not quite as proven, yet. Just 22, the converted infielder hit .300 with 26 homers and 20 steals in his first full MLB season in ’09. Upton is a little more of a free swinger than Kemp and the Diamondbacks’ best hitter doesn’t have quite as much protection in the lineup.

Sizemore had a down year in ’09, which is good news in one sense: You might get him at a slight discount in 2010. After hitting 22+ homers four four straight seasons, the outfielder slipped to 18 last year. He also failed to score 100 runs or steal 20+ bases after four straight seasons of doing just that. A 30-30 threat in his age-27 season, Sizemore won’t hit for a high average, but he should be around .270-.280 in ’10.

Holliday proved that there is life after Colorado for a slugger. He hit above .310 for the fifth straight season and even managed 24 homers despite playing part of the season in Oakland. Along with hitting for average and power, he’s a proven (and durable) slugger who can provide 100 RBI/runs, and steal 15-20 bases. Having Albert Pujols hit with him all season should definitely help the numbers.

The Next Best Thing:
Jason Bay, New York NL (.397 wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.354 wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.367 wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.382 wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.369 wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.394 wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.349 wOBA)

You could include Bay in the Top Targets, but the Mets curse (and ballpark) worries me. The 31-year-old hitter should be good for power, RBI and runs. Bay should provide about 10 steals, but he’s not going to hit for a great average. Ellsbury won’t help you with power or RBI totals, but he’s going to steal a lot of bases and score a ton of runs while hitting for a good average. That pretty much sums up Crawford and Suzuki, too.

Werth is a 30-20 threat with great lineup protection, but he’s also an injury risk who does his fair share of swinging and missing. Lind’s breakout ’09 season was more believable than teammate Aaron Hill’s… and he’s one of the top up-and-comers in the American League. It’s just too bad he’s likely to spend much of the year at DH. We’re still waiting for Markakis’ breakout season and maybe 2010 will be the year. The 26-year-old outfielder could be good for a .300 average, 20 homers, 20 steals and 100 runs/RBI. Or, he could let us down again.

The Leftovers:
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.321 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.340wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.368 wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.396 wOBA)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.310 wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.370 wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.389 wOBA)

Hamilton has a huge ceiling but he also has a pretty high bust rate thanks to a lack of durability. Granderson could zoom up this list thanks to his presence in the Yankees’ potent lineup. He’s a sleeper 30-30 candidate. Cruz has some warts, but he also has 30-20 potential and hits in a good lineup and ballpark. Ramirez is getting older and less consistent but he’s in a contract year. Inconsistent + Frustrating = B.J. Upton. With that said, he’s a 20-40 threat. Ethier isn’t as explosive as his teammate Kemp and lacks stolen-base numbers, but he has power and run-producing skills. Choo is good for a .300 average, as well as 20 homers and steals. Perhaps 2010 will be the year that he scores 100 runs but he doesn’t hit in a great lineup.