As a pitch-to-contact starter playing in front of lead-gloved fielders, Zach Duke and the Pittsburgh Pirates went together about as well as oil and water.

Duke zoomed on to the scene back in 2005, posting a promising 2.52 strikeout-to-walk ratio as a 22 year-old. While his 1.81 ERA and a low HR/FB rate (4.5%) in 84.2 innings led to some outsized expectations, Duke had plenty going for him. Whiffing 6.17 batters per nine innings, the Texan also kept the free passes in check (2.44 BB/9). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) checked in at a quality 3.66.

As a full-time rotation member in 2006, Duke compiled a 4.47 ERA in 215.1 innings. His XFIP climbed to 4.60, as his K rate fell below five (4.89) and his walk rate rose (2.84). Duke was putting the ball in play more often, and his BABIP rose from .296 to .327. The Bucs (28th in team UZR/150) were awful with the gloves in ’06, featuring defensive disasters at multiple positions (Jeromy Burnitz still sends Dave Littlefield postcards for that cool $6.7 million he pulled down that year).

Duke’s young career reached its nadir the following year. His ability to fool hitters completely evaporated as he dealt with left elbow tendinitis. He posted a grisly 5.53 ERA in 107.1 innings. Things certainly weren’t going swimmingly (he K’d just 3.44 batters per nine innings with a 4.79 XFIP), but a .360 BABIP would be enough to make any pitcher curse his fate. Overall, Pittsburgh was about league-average defensively (18th in team UZR/150). But when Duke took the hill, they fielded about as well as a team of Adam Dunn’s.

2008 followed a similar pattern, though not quite as extreme. With a .327 BABIP and 4.23 whiffs per nine innings, Duke compiled a 4.82 ERA (4.81 XFIP). The Bucs were again among the fielding laggards, placing 22nd in team UZR/150.

After a couple years of listless showings with the leather, the Pirates have actually been a plus defensive team in 2009. Pittsburgh ranks third in the majors in UZR/150, trailing only the surprising Brewers and the Rays (who orchestrated a historic defensive turnaround last season). Nyjer Morgan, Brandon Moss, Jack Wilson and Andy LaRoche are all on the plus side, with Adam LaRoche and Nate McLouth a few runs in the negative. Only Freddy Sanchez (-8.6 UZR) is deep in the red among regular starters.

With better support behind him, Duke has posted a .268 BABIP in 2009. In 72 frames, his ERA sits at 2.75. He’s more than likely not going to keep up that level of performance (his XFIP is 4.34), but Duke has a 2.47 K/BB ratio this year after failing to crack two over the past three seasons.

Duke is pitching fairly well, and he’s now being aided by his defense instead of watching them boot easy plays and fail to track balls that most big leaguers would reach. With an 88 MPH fastball and a kitchen-sink approach that entails more deception than brute force, Duke will always be reliant upon the quality of the fielders behind him. Luckily, those guys are picking him up where previous squads hung him out to dry.

When the Boston Red Sox re-signed backstop Jason Varitek to a one-year, $5 million deal with a mutual 2010 option this past winter, questions were raised as to how much the move was motivated by emotion as opposed to empiricism. After all, ‘Tek (a Sox player since being acquired along with Derek Lowe in a July 1997 deadline deal for Heathcliff Slocumb) was entering his age-37 season, and was coming off a bleak 2008 campaign in which he posted a .299 wOBA (.220/.313/.359).

Granted, those who don the tools of ignorance generally don’t light up the scoreboard (the average catcher posted a .255/.324/.389 line in 2008), but Varitek accumulated just 1.2 Wins Above Replacement in ’08. Baseball Prospectus scribe Christina Kahrl called bringing the veteran switch-hitter back to Boston “spending money for its own sake because you didn’t spend it on things that actually help you.”

Flash forward to May 28th, as the Red Sox take on the Twins. A catcher dominates the game (well, before getting tossed, anyway). He clubs two homers, pushing his team to victory in a 3-1 affair. The backstop is shockingly in the double-digits in dingers already.

No, I’m not talking about Joe Mauer. With two solo shots yesterday afternoon, Boston’s purportedly cooked catcher now has 10 home runs on the season. Through 150 plate appearances, Varitek owns a .248/.320/.541 line, good for a .360 wOBA that ranks third among all qualified catchers. Only part-time first baseman Victor Martinez and part-time DH Mike Napoli best Varitek, so you could say that he’s the leader in the clubhouse among those who are consistently behind the dish (if you drop the PA threshold to 100 to include those bitten by the injury bug, he ranks 8th, which is still pretty impressive).

Nothing has drastically shifted in his batted ball profile or plate discipline stats, but Varitek is driving the ball as well as he ever has during the first two months of the season. His .293 ISO is leaps and bounds above any of his full-season totals; the last time he eclipsed .200 was 2005. To boot, he’s whiffing less so far, too: after K’ing a career-high 28.8% in 2008, Varitek has pared that number down to 22.6%. It’s hard to say that he’s getting lucky on balls put in play either: while his line drive percentage is low (14.3%), so is his BABIP (.247). He’s just banging plenty of extra-base hits.

Of course, it would be insane to expect this sort of performance to continue for the length of the season. However, Varitek is certainly looking like a worthy starter in deep leagues. ZiPS projects Varitek to post a .235/.326/.412 line the rest of the way. That’s not flashy, but one could do worse than giving Varitek a look. Let’s not write his baseball eulogy just yet.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera gave up a run versus the Orioles on the 20th, but he turned in two pristine innings on the 21st (a save op versus the O’s) and the 24th against the Phillies as his counterpart (Lidge) was busy spontaneously combusting. Mo has 24 K’s and just a single walk on his ledger in 19.2 innings. A wacky HR/FB rate (31.3%) has put a damper on his numbers (relatively speaking), but he’s as nasty as ever.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has recovered nicely from a 3-run debacle against the Yankees on the 15th, with 2.2 scoreless innings in three appearances (1 save chance). His FIP sits at 3.45 for the season, with an uncharacteristic -0.01 WPA.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks converted a save against those pesky Pirates on the 22nd, but he served up a tater to Jack Wilson on the 24th while blowing a save opportunity. His WPA comes in at 0.10 for the season, with a 4.79 FIP.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Is it time to be at least mildly concerned about Boston’s relief ace? He has given up 4 runs in his last two innings, with 11 walks in 21 innings overall. Papelbon’s fastball hasn’t been quite as effective this year: according to the new linear weights section on his player page, Papelbon’s cheddar has been worth +0.66 runs per 100 pitches in 2009, compared to +2.21 in 2008 and +3.29 in 2007.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

He’s back: Francisco came off the DL this week and didn’t skip a beat, tossing two scoreless innings and tallying one save. That’s 16.2 clean innings, for those of you keeping score at home. Sure, he has yet to give up a homer and his BABIP is .225, but Francisco also has a 4.0 K/BB ratio.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood racked up two saves in 3 appearances this week, though the first save chance was turbulent (3 walks against the Royals on the 20th). With a .358 BABIP and 2.25 HR/9, Wood hasn’t had many bounces go his way. Still, he’ll need to hit his spots with more regularity (5.63 BB/9), lest he set a bad example for the rest of Cleveland’s savage bullpen.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs tossed just one inning this week (3 hits, 2 R against the O’s on the 26th), as the Jays suddenly dive back toward earth, poised to roost in their customary fourth-place spot. With B. J. Ryan still failing to crack 89-90 MPH on the radar gun, Downs’ ninth-inning gig looks safe. With a 23/2 K/BB, the low-profile lefty has earned his keep.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes racked up back-to-back saves against the Mariners and Dodgers on the 21st and 22nd, then served up a run against LA on the 24th in a non-save situation. His 4.32 ERA looks sort of inflated, but a 3.10 FIP suggests that Fuentes should enjoy better days from here on out.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

After converting save chances on the 20th and 21st against Texas, Rodney has lounged without around without getting into a ballgame. Normally a high-octane hurler lacking fine touch, Rodney is both punching out fewer hitters (6.5 K/9) and surrendering fewer free passes (2.5 BB/9). The net effect, should it stick, is positive: Rodney’s 3.27 FIP is the lowest of his career. Some of that is due to a 0.5 HR/9 mark, but he’s also generating grounders (51 GB%) at his highest rate since 2006.

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

Cruz finally fell off the tight rope this week, as his 13/12 K/BB ratio caught up with him in a big way: 4 runs in 1/3 of an inning versus the Indians on the 21st. Soria, meanwhile, is making progress toward a much-anticipated return. He is expected to start a rehab assignment today.

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler took a loss against the Rays on the 21st, then recovered to toss two scoreless frames on the 23rd and 24th against Arizona (no saves. Darn.) Brad hasn’t received much support from his teammates, with a whopping .376 BABIP. Orlando Cabrera (-6.6 UZR/150) hasn’t contributed on either side of the ball thus far, and Jason Giambi (-29.3 UZR/150) has shown about as much range as a mastodon in a tar pit.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill had a superb week at the office, earning 3 saves and tossing four clean innings. He struck out 7 batters in the process, without issuing a single walk. His FIP is down to 4.08 for the season, and Sherrill appears to have a firmer grasp on his job for the time being, considering Chris Ray’s acts of arsonry.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Would you believe that Aardsma ranks second among all relievers in WPA, at +2.20? It’s true: the well-traveled flame-thrower takes a back seat only to Texas’ Francisco. While Aardsma may rank 2nd in the category and first alphabetically, he continues to tempt fate with 13 walks in 21.2 innings. The 1.25 ERA looks great, but a .212 BABIP and a 93% strand rate suggest that anyone expecting sustained dominance will be disappointed.

In other M’s news, Morrow is attempting to work his way out of reliever purgatory. He threw four scoreless frames in two appearances this week, though his control is still Aardsma-like (2 walks against the A’s on the 25th). Just 43.9% of Morrow’s pitches have crossed home plate.

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)

With Percival possibly headed for retirement rather than rehabbing his latest ailment (shoulder tendinitis), the Rays will pick and choose from a number of different options, including the recently-activated Isringhausen. Izzy tossed 3 spotless innings to start his abbreviated season, but he blew his first save chance against the Indians on the 25th (2 R, 3 BB’s).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton saw game action twice this week, posting a spotless inning against the Mets on the 20th and then chucking 2 perfect innings against the Angels on the 23rd. His fastball, always buzzing, is up to 97.5 MPH from last year’s 96.3 and 2007’s 95.2. In fact, Broxton has increased the velocity on his cheese every year in the majors. Big Jon’s 1.83 WPA ranks 4th among relievers, and his 1.16 FIP ranks first.

Heath Bell, Padres

It finally happened: Heath actually had a runner cross home plate on his watch, as he surrendered 4 hits and a run against the Giants on the 21st. He has since converted two saves, a 0.1 inning gimme against the Cubs on the 22nd and a 1-inning opportunity versus the D-Backs on the 25th. Bell’s 94 MPH heater and hard slider are generating outside swings 31.2% of the time.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod gave fantasy owners quite the scare this week. He collapsed outside of New York’s clubhouse with severe back pain, and was even placed on a stretcher. Fortunately, Rodriguez was well enough to convert a save op against the Nationals on the 25th, taking him up to 13 for the season. That’s a nice tally and the 0.83 ERA looks sparkling, but his K/BB ratio has declined for the fourth straight season: 3.5 in 2006, 2.65 in 2007, 2.26 in 2008 and 2.1 in 2009.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls had a squalid week, coughing up 4 runs and 8 hits in five innings. His numbers are still sturdy for the year: a 5.5 K/BB ratio, with a 2.36 FIP. His BABIP is up to .379, one of the highest marks among all relievers. If you can coax a skittish owner to surrender Qualls, go for it.

In Control

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor still hasn’t surrendered a run in his new digs, running his scoreless inning tally up to 13. He’s 11-for-11 in save chances, has yet to give up a walk and he has snuck into the top 10 in WPA. Eventually he’s going to serve up some homers (he has yet to do that either), but Hoffman has been outstanding for the Brewers.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cincinnati’s stopper saw plenty of action this week, tossing five scoreless innings, whiffing four batters while walking none, and notching 3 saves along the way. Cordero’s 1.71 ERA overstates his case somewhat (he’s managed to avoid a single HR in 21 IP), but he has improved his walk rate from 4.86 in 2008 to 3.0 this season.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Mr. Capps would very much like to turn back the clock to March, and try this whole..2009 thing over again. The 25 year-old began the season by showing uncharacteristically sloppy control while battling an elbow problem. Just when he was getting back in a groove (2 spotless save ops on the 20th and the 24th), Capps’s right elbow was smashed by a Geovany Soto liner on the 25th. He may well be placed on the DL, and John Grabow looks like the man to take over ninth inning duties in such a scenario. Grabow is a Sherrill-esque lefty, who can miss some bats but is also too generous with the free passes.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

Not a single thing has gone right for Lidge since he made Eric Hinske jelly-legged on a slider last October. He was due for some regression in the homer department after surrendering just two long bombs in 2008 (3.9 HR/FB%), but this is getting ridiculous: Lidge’s HR/FB percentage sits at 19.4. After leading the majors in WPA in 2008, Lidge ranks second-to-last this season: only Brandon Lyon has been more hazardous to his team’s chances of victory. The Yankees (and A Rod in particular) victimized “Lights Out” for 4 runs in 1.1 innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin hasn’t worked since the 21st when he converted a cakewalk 0.1 inning save against the Cubs. His ERA (1.53) is sterling, but his 3.79 FIP and microscopic .187 BABIP suggest that the good times might not continue to roll.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street collected his 100th career save this week with a 2 K, 2 walk inning against the Tigers on 23rd. He tallied another one the next night, and Street’s K/BB ratio is up to 4.20 for the season. His first-pitch strike percentage sits at an impressive 72.4 percent, fifth among all relievers.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had a rough go of it against the temporarily-surging Padres on the 21st, giving up two runs and two walks while blowing the save op. He had a clean inning for a save against the Braves on the 25th, but Wilson’s WPA sits at a nasty -1.46 for the year. That sandwiches him between Lidge and Brandon Morrow, two other late-inning options having seasons to forget.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins pitched 3 frames this week (none of them save chances), tossing scoreless innings on the 21st (Brewers) and 26th (Reds), but he coughed up a run and two hits against the Rangers on the 22nd. A middle-inning ‘pen arm doing his best to fill in for Valverde, Hawkins has a 4.03 FIP and a negative WPA for the season.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

Gonzalez got himself into a mess on the 23rd against the Blue Jays (1 R and 2 walks), and Soriano bailed him out while earning the save in the process. Frustrating as it may be for fantasy-types, Bobby Cox has used his two best relievers with discretion, instead of following some blanket set of rules so that one guy earns a “SV” next to his name.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom had a devilish inning against the Rays, getting torched for 4 runs in a third of an inning on the 23rd. The 29 year-old has now issued 15 walks in 19 innings, holds a 5.06 FIP and a -0.18 WPA. Opposing batters are wisely sitting back and taking pitches, having offered at just 40.1% of Lindstrom’s high-90’s heaters and low-80’s sliders (44.6% MLB average, 50.3% career average for Lindstrom).

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan/Ron Villone(huh?), Nationals

Hanrahan (apparently the guy for now) continued the late-inning hijinks by uncorking a wild pitch and losing the ballgame against the Bucs on the 20th, but he has since worked 3 scoreless innings, with 2 saves and 4 K’s. Fooling hitters has never been a problem for the burly right-hander, but he’ll have to limit the walks to avoid being usurped again. He’s made baby steps on the front: his 3.80 BB/9 mark, while hardly great, is below last year’s 4.48.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg got into just one game this week as the Cubs scuffled, with a scoreless frame against San Diego on the 22nd. The former Marlin has had some poor luck on flyballs (16.7 HR/FB%) and his BABIP is .356, but he hasn’t done himself any favors with 10 walks in 18.1 innings.

Stock Up

Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals

A Tale of Two Rookies: Shairon Martis might have the shiny 5-0 record and a superficially better ERA (4.86), but Zimmermann (5.71 ERA) holds the FIP advantage, 4.24 to Martis’ 4.71. Zimmermann has a strong 3.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.56 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), but a fluky .343 BABIP has bogged down his numbers. The 22 year-old has a deep four-pitch mix and keeps the ball in the zone (54.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate, compared to the 48.9% MLB average). He’s also getting ahead of hitters 0-1 or inducing contact early in the at-bat, with a First-Pitch Strike percentage of 66.5 (57.7% MLB average).

Kevin Slowey, Twins

As an extreme flyball pitcher (his career GB% is 33.2), Slowey will give up some meatballs that end up in the stands (1.3 HR/9 in 2009, 1.47 HR/9 career). However, his control and command are absolutely disgusting. Slowey’s walk rate for the season sits at 0.65, less than half of last year’s already pinpoint 1.35 BB/9. The 25 year-old is basically in a category of his own in terms of painting the corners: Joel Pinerio ranks 2nd in BB/9 at 1.03. Slowey has a 9.75 K/BB ratio; Roy Halladay is second at 7.0. Slowey also leads all starters in placing his pitches within the zone, at 59.2 percent. His FIP is down to 3.94 for the season, and batters have a better chance of winning the lottery and subsequently being struck by lightning than drawing a walk against him.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers

Per Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Andrus has been the sixth-most productive shortstop in the majors in 2009, quite the accomplishment for a 20 year-old who spent last season in Double-A. Andrus has been a vacuum at short at 14.8 UZR/150, but he has surprisingly held his own at the dish as well. His wOBA sits at .355, with a .291/.333/.457 line. Andrus’ .165 ISO is leaps and bounds above anything he did at the minor league level. ZiPS suggests that we shouldn’t go hog-wild just yet: Andrus is projected to hit .250/.303/.337 from here on out, with a .291 wOBA. Still, the Rangers have to be highly encouraged.

Rich Hill, Orioles

Baby steps: Coming off a disastrous 2008 campaign in which he walked the yard and lost all semblance of fastball control, Hill has 12 punchouts in 11.1 frames. He’s still fighting himself, however, with 6 free passes. The 29 year-old’s signature low-70’s curve has shown plenty of bite (with 8.2 inches of “dropping” action, the hook is falling nearly twice as much as the average lefty curve, and more than Hill’s 7.1 career average when Pitch F/X is watching).

Hill continues to throw his curve and fastball from two different arm slots, though I won’t pretend to know whether or not the batter could pick up on such a nuance. The difference doesn’t appear to be extreme:

See that one red dot? Hill has dropped down sidearm to throw a slider once in each of his first two starts.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

The D-Backs rank just 24th in the majors in wOBA, but don’t blame Reynolds. He holds a .398 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .284 ISO. He’s still coming up empty as often as any one (36.1 K%), but Reynolds is working the count well (12.4 BB%) while reducing his Outside Swing% for the third consecutive year (from 26.1% in 2007 to 20.6% this season).

Stock Down

Rich Harden, Cubs

The A’s received plenty of flak last summer for parting with Harden, whose transient brilliance can intoxicate GM’s and fantasy owners alike. The reason Oakland received only a middling package of prospects is the same reason why Harden will always be a second or third-tier fantasy starter: he’s never upright for more than a few months at a time. Whiffing nearly 11 batters per nine innings, Harden hits the DL with a back strain.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

Burnett’s five-year pact with the Bombers was considered a significant risk from a health standpoint, but he was expected to perform quite well when available. So far, that hasn’t been the case: fresh off a 3.45 FIP with the Blue Jays, Burnett has posted a 5.27 FIP in 58 innings. Some of that is poor luck on flyballs- his HR/FB% is somewhat high at 14.3 percent. Still, his strikeout rate is down (7.76 K/9 in 2009, 9.39 in 2008), he’s walking too many batters (4.19 BB/9), and he’s surrendering far more flyballs this season. His 41.7 GB% is significantly lower than his 48.5% mark in 2008, which in turn was quite a bit lower than his 54.8% figure in 2007. Considering that seemingly innocuous flyballs are whizzing out of new Yankee Stadium at a dizzying pace (1.62 HR park factor), that’s not a positive trend.

Emmanuel Burriss, Giants

Granted, this Kent State product was never expected to knock balls into the gap with regularity, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Burriss has three extra-base knocks on the season, good for a .021 ISO. His wOBA sits at .284. Coupled with a so-so 11-for-15 in the SB department and a false start with the leather (-7.6 UZR/150), Burriss has been below replacement-level thus far. There are rumblings that Burriss may begin losing playing time to Kevin Frandsen.

Chris Davis, Rangers

Punching out regularly certainly doesn’t preclude a hitter from being highly productive, but Davis has resembled a Dave Kingman/Rob Deer love child in 2009. He has whiffed an astounding 43.5% of the time, lapping the competition: Carlos Pena ranks a distant second, at 36.3%. The 23 year-old is crushing what he can touch, with 10 homers and a .231 ISO. However, he’s swinging at most everything (35.2 Outside Swing%) while making the least amount of contact of any batter in the majors, at 58 percent. The result is an ugly .264 OBP and a .300 wOBA.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano had a highly promising return to the Twinkies last year (3.87 FIP, 7.93 K/9), but the 25 year-old southpaw has been torched for a 5.28 FIP in 2009. Placing a below-average 45.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, Liriano has issued 4.44 BB/9. Not surprisingly, his release point has been all over the place. For example, here’s his last start against the White Sox, on May 20th:

Cleveland Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore entered the 2009 season perched near the top of any fantasy draft list you could get your eyes on. His talents are obvious: the 26 year-old owns a career .369 wOBA, a .275/.366/.485 line and he swiped in excess of 30 bases in each of the past two seasons. Sizemore looked like a very wise investment, and one with upside to boot as he entered what are typically the peak years for hitters.

Instead, Grady’s wOBA sits at a gruesome .299. After compiling 35.2 Batting Runs in 2008, Sizemore checks in at a minuscule -5.5 in 2009. By either measure, he has been the least productive Indian among batters taking at least 50 PA.

So, is it time to barter Sizemore in hopes of recouping some value on that high draft pick? When you dig a little deeper into Grady’s subpar season, the answer becomes apparent: heck no.

In most respects, Sizemore’s core numbers are in line with his stellar work in previous seasons. His walk rate is 11.1 percent, very near his 11.3% career average, and his Outside-Swing Percentage is 19.4% in 2009 (18.6 career average). His strikeout rate is slightly higher this season (24.9%, compared to a 22.6% career average), but not alarmingly so.

Sizemore is driving the ball a little less this season with a .181 Isolated Power (Slugging% minus BAVG; his career average is .210), but it isn’t as though he has been punchless. He’s still making plenty of hard contact, too, with a 20.8% line drive rate (21% career average). Sizemore isn’t suddenly chopping the ball into the dirt frequently, either, with a 35.4 groundball percentage and a 43.8 flyball percentage (his career marks are 36.7% and 42.3%, respectively).

So, if the 2009 version of Grady so closely resembles the 2004-2008 models, then why is his lumber in the gutter? While he is getting jammed more often than usual (his infield/flyball percentage is 17.5%, compared to a 7.4% career average), the main culprit is a .240 BABIP that’s nearly 80 points below his career average of .319. That’s one of the 15 lowest marks in the majors, and goes a long way toward explaining why he has more closely resembled Carlos Gomez at the dish, instead of the championship-caliber player we have come to know and love.

Sizemore hasn’t been himself on the base paths to this point (7 SB and 6 caught stealings, with a 3.9 Speed Score that’s way below his 7.1 career mark). However, there’s not much to worry about regarding his hitting. Sizemore should commence lashing pitches into the gaps and getting on base at a healthy clip from here on out. If you have weathered the storm to this point, hold steady: Grady’s not playing nearly as bad as his surface stats would indicate.

From the moment Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun stepped in a major league batter’s box, he’s mashed. The 25 year-old holds a career .304/.363/.586 line, with a .402 wOBA. While that whole…third base thing didn’t work out so well, Braun nonetheless posted 3.1 Wins Above Replacement during his rookie year, followed by 3.9 WAR in 2008.

While his work at the dish was outstanding in each of the past two seasons (.422 wOBA in ’07 and .377 in ’08), Braun is arguably turning in his finest season yet in 2009. The former Hurricane is batting a searing .326 with a 574 slugging percentage. Neither of those numbers should come as particularly shocking: Braun holds a career .282 ISO and possesses as much raw power as any player in the N.L (his ISO is “down” to .248 this season, from .310 in his rookie season and .268 in 2008). However, it’s the other part of his triple-slash line that might cause you to do a double-take: Braun boasts a .451 on-base percentage, fifth-best in baseball and 116 points above his 2008 mark (.335).

Braun was a very aggressive batter in 2007 and 2008, drawing a free pass just 6 percent of the time in ’07 and 6.4 percent last season. In 2009, though? The “Hebrew Hammer” has suddenly morphed into a Youkilis-like God of Walks, with a 15.1 BB%. Intentional walks aren’t clouding the picture, either: he has been put on first intentionally just once thus far.

Braun’s dramatic spike in walks is due to a confluence of factors. For one thing, he is toning down his penchant for swinging at outside pitches. After chasing 30.6% of outside offerings in 2007 and 34.3% in 2008, Braun has gone fishing 25.5% of the time in 2009, just a tad above the 24.3% major league average. He swung at 52 and 51.2 percent of all pitches seen over his first two seasons, respectively, but Braun has hacked at just 39.5% of opponent offerings in 2009. According to The Hardball Times, he has seen 4.0 pitches per plate appearance in 2009, up from 3.7 each of the past two seasons.

It’s not all Braun, though: having been scorched in the past, pitchers seem less apt to toss Milwaukee’s big bopper a strike. Opposing pitchers placed 52.5 of their pitches within the strike zone during Braun’s rookie year, and 50.8% during 2008. In 2009, that figure has dipped again, to 45.6%. Perhaps opponents would rather tiptoe around the slugger instead of watching him trot around the bases.

Ryan Braun was already a devastating hitter, capable of changing the complexion of a game with one swing. But, if he can sustain his newfound patience, he may challenge for the title of best hitter in the big leagues (non-Pujols division, of course).

San Francisco Giants righty Matt Cain is a hurler who many considered to be on the cusp of a major breakout. His performances during his first three years in the rotation were very good, to be sure, with Fielding Independent ERA’s ranging from 3.78 to 3.96 and strikeout-to-walk ratios hovering slightly over 2/1. Still, the sturdy 6-3 frame, low-90’s gas, hard slider, slow curve and changeup hinted that Cain could possibly reach another level.

If one were to take just a quick glance at Cain’s 2009 season, that breakout would appear to be in progress. After all, the 24 year-old’s notoriously poor run support that produced Maroth-like Win-Loss records hasn’t doomed him, as he sits at 4-1. His ERA checks in at a tidy 2.65 to boot. He’s an ace now, right?

Not so fast. Cain might possess the shiny W-L tally and a lower ERA than Lincecum, but in most respects, he has actually taken a step backward this season. Cain’s FIP is 4.85 in 51 frames, by far the highest mark of his career. His strikeout rate, which peaked at 8.45 batters per nine innings in 2006 and sat around the mid-sevens in ’07 and ’08, is just 6.00 in 2009.

The K rate wouldn’t be the end of the world if Cain had made commensurate improvement in terms of limiting the free passes. Unfortunately, he’s as wild as ever: 4.41 walks per nine innings. Batters seem to have taken note of Cain’s inability to locate, as opponents have offered at just 18.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (22.7% career average, 24.3% MLB average).

A true power pitcher when he broke into the big leagues (sitting between 93.2-93.4 MPH from 2005 to 2007), Cain now has a lower-octane fastball (91.6 MPH). In addition, his slider doesn’t appear to be the same knock-out pitch these days.

While it hasn’t surrendered any velocity, Cain’s slider isn’t moving away from righty batters like it used to. In 2007, the breaker tailed away from righties 3.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. In 2008, that figure dipped to 3.4 (the league average for a righty pitcher) and comes in at just 2.6 inches this season.

The negative trend with Cain’s slider is also apparent through FanGraphs’ new pitch linear weights section (seriously, how cool is this stuff?): the slider was 1.37 runs above average per 100 pitches in ’07, 1.23 in ’08 and actually comes in at -2.33 runs per 100 pitches in 2009. Not coincidentally, Cain’s usage of the pitch has declined each year: 16.5% in 2007, 13.8% in 2008 and 10% this year. Those sliders have been replaced with more curveballs (from 8.6% in 2007 to 16.8% in 2009), which come in as below average (-0.76 runs per 100 pitches this season, -1.92 per 100 pitches in 2008).

Given these trends, it’s not especially surprising to see that Cain’s performance against same-side batters has trailed off (numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

Cain vs. RHB:
2007: .224/.291/.370
2008: .235/.312/.378
2009: .293/.404/.500

None of this is to say that Cain is a bad pitcher, or that he won’t show improvement as the year goes on. However, his current levels aren’t anywhere near sustainable if he continues to post similar peripherals; he can’t continue to post a .257 BABIP or a near-90 percent strand rate. Cain is good, but he’s not the great pitcher that his surface stats would indicate. If you can cash in now by selling high, by all means do.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

That’s the Mo we know: since giving up 2 taters to the Rays on May 7th, Rivera has tossed 5 scoreless innings, with 5 K’s and one walk. His K/BB ratio is a sparkling 22/1 in 16.1 innings of work, and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, which roots out Rivera’s misfortune on flyballs so far-his HR/FB% is 28.6) comes in at 2.04 (which bests last season’s 2.13). In fact, his XFIP has gone down each season since 2006. You get the feeling that he could do this forever, no?

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Even with his control departing him at times (10 walks in 18 IP), Papelbon has managed to rack up 11 saves in 11 chances. He’s not garnering the same number of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone to this point (26.3 Outside Swing%, compared to a 30.7 career average), as hitters appear content to try and draw a walk rather than tussling with Papelbon’s mid 90’s heat, slider or splitter.

Kerry Wood, Indians

8.5 games back in a lackadaisical AL Central Division, the Indians continue to burn whatever leads they hold in the late innings. The ‘pen ranks 29th in team WPA and FIP. Wood, coming off a nice season in Wrigleyville (2.32 FIP, 4.67 K/BB ratio) has been the most egregious arsonist, with a -1.08 WPA. His BABIP (.391) and HR/FB rate (25%) are wacky-high, but he’s done himself no favors with 7 walks in 13 innings. The 31 year-old is fresh off his worst appearance of the season: a four-run, two-homer debacle against the Royals last night. Here’s Wood’s woeful evening, in graphical form:

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks got into just one game this week, surrendering 3 hits and 2 runs in an inning of work against the Blue Jays on the 17th. On the plus side, his pitches within the strike zone haven’t been easily hit: opponents have made contact with 81.6% of his offerings in the zone, compared to 93.1% last season. His overall contact rate is down nine percent from 2008.

Joe Nathan, Twins

After reeling off 7 scoreless innings to begin the month of May, Nathan was surprisingly torched by the Yankees as part of the walkoff week extravaganza in the Bronx (3 hits, 3 R, 2 BB in 0.2 IP). Nathan hasn’t quite been his stellar self thus far, with a 3.95 FIP and his lowest K/BB ratio (3.00) since his last year with San Francisco in 2003. His overall contact rate (76.8%) is the highest we have on record going back to 2002 (his average from ’02 to the present is 71.3%).

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler hasn’t had many save chances, what with the A’s being clobbered on a nightly basis in the month of May (Oakland’s run differential now sits at negative 27 for the year). Still, the submarine righty will want to pick up his sinking performance if he wants to hold off Bailey: Ziegler his let 6 runs score on his watch this month in 6 IP.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on DL with biceps tendinitis)

Francisco will be back soon, but Wilson will take whatever save ops arise until baseball’s WPA leader comes off the DL. It’s just plain hard to trust C.J. in the later innings: his whiff rate has gone down each season since 2006 (from 8.73 that season down to 5.51 in 2009), and it isn’t as though he’s painting the corners: his walk rate is near five. Just 42.8% of Wilson’s pitches have been within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes’ ERA sits at a lukewarm 4.61, but that’s because hits have fallen in against him at an absurd clip (.417 BABIP). His FIP (3.12) and strikeout rate (12.51 per nine innings) tell more of the story here. Fuentes hasn’t surrendered a run since May 4th. Try to buy low if you still can.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan might be back, but Downs doesn’t much care: he just continues to mow down batters. Downs racked up 2 saves and 3 scoreless innings this week, taking his K/BB ratio to an obscene 22/2 in 19.1 innings. Downs was never really known for possessing razor-sharp command (his career BB/9 is 3.42), and he’s still not really pounding the zone. Just 45.7% of his pitches have been within the zone, but hitters are going hog-wild chasing his sinker and sweeping curve out off the plate and in the dirt (35.5 Outside Swing%, 6th among all relievers).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney tossed three scoreless frames this week, though none came in a save situation. His K/BB sits at 11/4 in 16 innings. Zumaya, meanwhile, checks in at an uncharacteristic 7/0 in 11.1 innings. Zumaya has actually placed 57.8% of his offerings in the strike zone so far (51.9% career average). It’s Rodney’s job for now, but Detroit could be tempted to make a change if Rodney slips up.

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

Cruz will get the save ops in Soria’s absence, but he hasn’t gotten to convert one since April 30th. The string-bean righty’s 1.45 ERA is rather misleading: he’s missed just 13 bats in 18.2 innings, while issuing 10 free passes. A .131 BABIP has greatly helped Cruz’s cause. His Outside Swing%, 30.1 in 2008, is down to 19.7% in 2009.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill made just one appearance this week, converting a save chance against the Royals on the 16th. His control has been characteristically bumpy (7 BB in 15.2 IP), but he is at least garnering his highest Outside Swing% since 2005 (28.4% in ’09).

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Morrow sorrow: The former first-rounder out of Cal is banished to middle relief, though manager Don Wakamatsu says it’s just a temporary move. Still, the 24 year-old will want to pick it up: Morrow has 8 runs on his May ledger in just 3.2 innings, with 3 homers allowed.

Aardsma, meanwhile, will get the call for the time being. He’s not exactly a lock-down option, either: punching out over a batter per inning is great, but walking 5.79 per nine is a good way to give your manager an ulcer. Aardsma has eschewed his secondary pitches this season, throwing a fastball 89% of the time.

Troy Percival, Rays

Watch out for: J.P. Howell

Percival was torched for 4 runs and two dingers against the O’s on the 13th, and has since worked two quiet innings against the Indians (May 15th and the 17th). The 39 year-old is putting himself in the hole from the get-go: his 41.7 First Pitch Strike% ranks just ahead of Horacio Ramirez. That’s not the sort of company that a closer would like to keep.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

New York’s new ninth-inning toy keeps rolling: Rodriguez has an eight-inning scoreless streak, having last been touched up on May 5th. K Rod has 11 saves, and his ERA has dipped under one. However, his overall performance is largely similar to his “disappointing” 2008 campaign: his FIP checks in at 3.20 (3.22 in ’08). The difference? A .220 BABIP, compared to .302 last year. Rodriguez’s K rate, while still by no means troublesome, is down again: 12.03 K/9 in 2007, 10.14 in ’08 and 9.15 this year.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Apparently Broxton is human: he surrendered two runs to the Phillies on May 14th, but has since reeled off two scoreless appearances on the 15th and the 18th. Broxton continues to keep the ball on the turf, with a 54.5 GB%. That, coupled with a stratospheric K rate (14.4 per nine), helps to explain why just 3 runners have crossed the plate on his watch (20 IP).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell remains unblemished in 2009, with his scoreless innings streak up to sixteen. The former Met will probably surpass DL’d Frank Francisco for the WPA lead among relievers during his next appearance. With the Padres obviously headed for a bleak season and the club short on highly-touted youngsters, do they consider leveraging their 31 year-old relief ace at the deadline? As good as Bell has been, last-place outlets should not cling to 30-something relievers if they have a chance to cash in.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

With 11.4 K/9, 1.20 BB/9 and a groundball rate near 70, Qualls has certainly done his part in a D-Backs ‘pen that ranks a mediocre 22nd in team WPA. His 73.3 First-Pitch Strike% ranks fifth among all relievers, and 56% of his offerings have crossed the plate (8th among ‘pen arms).

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps continues to get bopped, with a 5-hit, 3 run train wreck against the Rockies on May 15th, a scoreless frame the following night and then a 1-run, 1-walk performance against the Nats on the 18th. Looking at his Pitch F/X data, Capps’ pitches have shown an interesting trend. His fastball has progressively shown less tailing movement in on right-handed hitters (5.8 inches in ’07, 5.1 in ’08 and 4.6 this year). Meanwhile, his slider has shown far more “sweeping” action away from righties (1.9 inches in ’07, 3.7 in ’08 and 4.9 this year).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman is doing his best to match the man who replaced him in San Diego, as the 41 year-old changeup artist now has an 11-inning scoreless streak going to begin his Brewers career. His flyball-oriented ways have yet to surrender a homer, and his WPA checks in at 1.02.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

Lidge blew a save op and coughed up 2 runs against Washington on the 15th, but converted 2 save chances against those Nats the following two nights (including a 0.2 inning lay-up on the 17th). The .368 BABIP and 16.7 HR/FB rate won’t persist, but the lack of control (10 unintentional BB’s in 18.1 IP) is disconcerting. Lidge’s 47.8 First-Pitch Strike% checks in among the bottom 15 out of all relievers.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero was largely a spectator this week, getting into a game for the first time last night against the Phillies. He has yet to give up a homer in 16 frames despite a 34.1 GB%, so the 2.38 FIP is a bit misleading. Like K Rod, Cordero’s K rate is down for a third straight season: 12.22 in ’07, 9.98 in ’08 and 9.56 this season.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had a bumpy week, taking back-to-back losses against the Mets on the 14th and 15th, while giving up a combined 5 runs in 1.2 frames (he converted a save op against them on the 17th). Batters are making better contact with San Fran’s stopper in 2009: his Z-contact% (the percentage that hitters make contact with pitches inside the strike zone) has risen from 81.8% in 2008 to 91.7% this season (87.7% MLB average). With a couple of late-inning stinkers, Wilson’s WPA dips to -0.63.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins worked two innings this week, converting a save opportunity against the Rockies on the 14th but taking the loss on the 16th against the Cubs. Hawkins isn’t the ideal late-inning option, but he’s missing more bats than he has since 2004 (7.56 K/9).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin had an uneventful week, pitching 1.2 scoreless innings between two appearances (May 14th against the Pirates and the 18th against Milwaukee). Is this a good time to sell high on Franklin? He’s been pretty good (7.71 K/9, 1.65 BB/9), but his FIP (3.81) is much higher than his 1.10 ERA, and that .158 BABIP won’t continue unless he has a leprechaun hidden in that bushy goatee.

Huston Street, Rockies

Colorado’s ‘pen has been wretched in 2009 (28th in team WPA), so Street moves up a category through a combination of good pitching (6 IP, 7/1 K/BB, 0 R in May) and no other viable candidates to usurp him. Street’s peripherals are nifty so far (9.92 K/9, 1.65 BB/9), and with his BABIP and HR/FB rates stabilizing, his FIP is under four.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom gave up a run in a non-save situation against the Dodgers on the 15th, then converted a save op with a clean inning the following night. The hard-throwing 29 year-old has issued 10 walks in 15 frames this season, and his WPA sits at -0.31.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan/Ron Villone(huh?), Nationals

“Here, you take it”: Does anyone want the Nats’ closing gig? Ron Villone, of all people, leads the ‘pen in WPA (0.31). Free agent import Beimel is (unfortunately) fitting right in thus far: the lefty journeyman has experienced pain along the Potomac. In 16 innings, his FIP sits near five, with a -1.35 WPA. Hanrahan, meanwhile, dished out 3 runs and two walks against the Bucs on the 18th. Could Villone take over by process of elimination?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

So far, Gonzalez has posted the highest K rate (12.74 per nine) and Outside Swing% (31.1) of his career. He served up a homer to the D-Backs on the 15th, and pitched a clean inning in an 8-1 blowout against the Rockies last night. The southpaw will need to continue the good work if he hopes to hold off Soriano, who boasts a 2.59 FIP (Gonzo’s is 3.03).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg’s Wrigley woes continue: after a six-appearance scoreless streak, Gregg imploded on the 16th against the Astros. Without retiring a single batter, the former Marlin gave up four runs, including two homers, while hitting a batter. His WPA is back in negative territory (-0.31), and just 43.2% of his pitches have caught the strike zone (51.2% career average, 48.9% MLB average).