Now that J.J. Hardy has been shipped to the Twin Cities for CF Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee’s shortstop position belongs solely to Alcides Escobar.

The soon-to-be 23 year-old, signed out of Venezuela in 2003, has long been lauded for his slick glove work. Sean Smith’s Total Zone defensive system rated Escobar as +24 runs above average per 150 defensive games in 2008 and +21 in 2009. Hardy is an outstanding defender in his own right, but Alcides certainly won’t hurt Milwaukee’s pitchers, either.

Considering his position on the defensive spectrum and his exquisite range, Escobar could be a huge asset without putting up many crooked numbers on the scoreboard. But what about that bat? Can Alcides hit enough to make him relevant in fantasy circles in 2010?

The 6-1, 180 pound Escobar made his pro debut as a 17 year-old in 2004, taking his cuts in the Rookie-level Pioneer League. He batted .281/.348/.342 in 262 PA, displaying enough talent to crack Milwaukee’s top 30 prospects entering the 2005 season (Baseball America rated him 25th). Escobar was raw, to be sure, as he walked in less than 8% of his PA and was 20-29 in SB attempts.

Bumped up to the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2005, Alcides took his hacking to another level. Posting a .271/.305/.362 triple-slash in 562 PA, Escobar drew a walk just 3.6% of the time. With a .091 ISO, Alcides rarely got the ball out of the infield. He swiped 30 bases, but his technique remained unrefined (13 CS).

While that assessment sounds negative, keep in mind that Escobar was the same age as a high school senior, yet he managed not to embarrass himself at the plate while rating as a plus defender at shortstop. Baseball America jumped Escobar all the way up to 6th on Milwaukee’s prospects list.

2006 proved to be the toughest year of Alcides’ minor league career. He broke his finger in April, missing several weeks of action. Escobar never did get going at the dish, as he stumbled to a .259/.299/.308 line in 382 PA. Extra-base hits were the rarest of commodities (.049 ISO), and Alcides still swung from his heels with a 5.2 BB%. On the positive side, his 78 percent success rate on the base paths (28 SB in 36 attempts) was the highest mark of his career. BA ranked Escobar 9th among Brewers farm hands, believing that he had a “chance to grow into gap power.”

Milwaukee sent Escobar back to High-A to begin the 2007 season. The defensive stalwart swatted pitchers for a .325/.347/.377 triple-slash in 283 PA. However, the big gap between his ’06 and ’07 numbers appeared to be more of a BABIP spike (.303 in ’06 to .373 in ’07) than legitimate improvement in his plate approach. Escobar walked 2.5% of the time, with a .052 ISO. He was reckless on the bases as well: he snatched 18 bases, but was caught stealing 10 times (64% success rate).

The Brewers were encouraged enough to promote Escobar to the AA Southern League mid-season, where he batted .283/.314/.354 in 245 PA. It was much the same from an offensive standpoint. He improved his walk rate (4.6 BB%) and power output (.071 ISO), but we’re speaking in relative terms here. Strangely, Escobar was glued to first base in AA. He stole just four bases in seven tries.

Encouraged by his play as a 20 year-old just two rungs from the majors, BA bumped Escobar to third in the Milwaukee system. Alcides was said to have gotten stronger, which “stopped pitchers from knocking the bat out of his hands.”

Back at AA Huntsville in 2008, Escobar hit .328/.363/.434 in 597 PA. A .375 BABIP certainly didn’t hurt, and he did remain a free swinger (5.4 BB%). But Escobar posted a .100+ ISO for the first time in his career (.106). His 8 HR in ’08 topped the combined 7 HR he hit from 2004-2007. Escobar also used his wheels more efficiently, going 34 for 42 in steal attempts (81 percent success rate). BA dubbed him the best prospect in the system heading into the 2009 season.

Getting his first taste of AAA ball in ’09, Escobar didn’t disappoint. He managed a .298/.353/.409 line in 487 PA, walking 6.9% of the time with a .112 ISO. The secondary skills were still mild, but Escobar transformed from a potential liability at the plate during his early years to a guy who can at least occasionally deliver something offensively. He continued to use his speed to good effect as well, with a whopping 42 SB in 52 attempts (81 percent).

Called up to Milwaukee in August, Escobar hit .304/.333/.368 in 125 PA. Alcides was anxious in the batter’s box, walking just 3.1% and swinging at nearly 30% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. He rarely drove the ball (.064 ISO), while making plenty of contact (92.7 Z-Contact%, 87.8% MLB average). Escobar stole four bags in six tries.

Heading into 2010, fantasy owners should expect Escobar to go through some growing pains at the plate. According to Minor League Splits, Alcides’ AAA line equated to a .259/.301/.345 showing at the major league level. That translated line could be selling Escobar a bit short batting average-wise: he had a .346 BABIP in the minors, suggesting his world-class speed allows him to beat out more infield hits than the average batter.

It seems unlikely that the lanky shortstop will become more than a decent hitter, given his paucity of secondary skills, but he has the potential to steal 25+ bags in 2010. Though his plate discipline isn’t quite as good, Escobar could be the National League’s answer to Elvis Andrus.

With human vacuum Alcides Escobar ready for everyday play and incumbent shortstop J.J. Hardy turning in a disappointing 2009 season, the Milwaukee Brewers were determined to shop Hardy this offseason.

It didn’t take long for the Brew Crew to find a trade partner, as the Minnesota Twins acquired Hardy today in exchange for center fielder Carlos Gomez.

Because of a demotion to the minor leagues in August, Hardy will be under team control for the 2010 and 2011 seasons (he would have been eligible for free agency following 2010 without the unwelcomed Nashville vacation).

The 27 year-old is a slick fielder in his own right, but his lumber was MIA in 2009. Hardy posted a solid .338 wOBA in 2007, then followed that up with a .355 mark in 2008.

This past year, though? J.J. turned in a .292 wOBA. After compiling +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ’07 and +13.7 in ’08, Hardy sunk to -13.2 in 2009.

What happened to Hardy’s bat, and can we expect a rebound in 2010?

The first thing that jumps out about Hardy’s line is his .264 BABIP, well below his .306 mark in 2008 and his career .280 BABIP.

Hardy’s career BABIP is fairly low, likely because he had lofty infield/fly ball rates from 2005-2008 (pop ups are near automatic outs). And, Hardy did post a very low line drive rate in 2009 (13.9 percent).

But even so, J.J. was unlucky on balls put in play in 2009. He actually didn’t pop the ball up excessively (9.1 IF/FB%), taking away one possible cause of the low BABIP. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, we get a .306 XBABIP for Hardy, based on his HR, K, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls.

Even assuming all hits were singles, that would raise Hardy’s triple-slash from .229/.302/.357 to a less-wretched .271/.344/.399. His power was down in ’09 (.128 ISO, .166 career average), but his adjusted line equates to a wOBA of roughly .330. That’s a little better than Hardy’s career .325 wOBA. Essentially, his 2009 performance wasn’t all that different from his overall level of play at the major league level.

Heading into 2010, owners should expect Hardy to be neither the offensive stud of 2008 nor the offensive dud of 2009. Hardy looks like a slightly above-average big league hitter. Considering that J.J. is a plus defender at a premium position, it looks as though the Twins got exceptional value here.

Going to Milwaukee is Gomez, who is under team control until 2013. In February of 2008, the Dominican Republic native was the principal prospect acquired in the Johan Santana blockbuster. Now, Gomez heads back to the N.L., presumably replacing pending free agent Mike Cameron.

Turning 24 in December, Gomez derives almost all of his value from his legs. The 6-4, 215 pound righty has yet to show much ability at the dish. His career wOBA in 1,100+ PA is .286. Gomez has walked just 5.1 percent of the time, while hacking at 35.1% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (his O-Swing% was 29.9 in 2009).

Gomez has a peculiar profile at the plate. He’s as speedy as they come (7.6 career Speed Score, compared to an MLB average around five). Yet, his career groundball rate is just 44.4%, near the MLB average. The former Mets prospect does just about nothing with the fly balls that he hits.

His major league HR/FB rate is 4.6%. Gomez has a career .373 slugging percentage on fly balls. For reference, the AL average was .603 in 2009. When he isn’t hitting harmless flies, Gomez is popping the ball up at an alarming rate. His career IF/FB% is 16.1%.

Given Gomez’s lack of pop and his issues with fastballs (career -1.33 runs per 100 pitches), Milwaukee’s new fly catcher has seen a surprisingly low proportion of heaters (52.6 percent). Of course, he hasn’t really lit it up against sliders (-0.26), curves (-0.37) or changeups (-2.17), either.

Gomez’s wheels are what keep him on the fantasy radar. He swiped 12 out of 15 bags in 2007, 33 in 44 attempts in 2008 and a less-impressive 14-for-21 in 2009. Gomez has a 73.8% SB success rate in the majors.

At the present moment, Gomez is one of those “more valuable in regular baseball than fantasy” guys. He covers a ton of ground in the field (career +14.2 UZR/150 in CF), but he is totally lost at the plate. Owners jonesing for steals will be interested, and it’s possible that Gomez will show something more offensively, given his relative youth. But as the old saying goes, you can’t steal first base.

Earlier this decade, OF Jeremy Hermida was pegged for stardom. But following yesterday’s trade to the Boston Red Sox for LHP’s Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez, Hermida may well have completed his descent from franchise building block to bench warmer.

Florida snagged the lefty hitter with the 11th overall selection in the 2002 amateur draft. Despite his youth, Hermida possessed exceptional polish for a high school bat. The Georgia prep product’s 2002 and 2003 seasons in the minors were modestly productive, as he displayed superb strike-zone control but little extra-base pop.

Hermida began to tap into his power in 2004, batting .297/.377/.441 in the pitcher-friendly High-A Florida State League. But it was his thunderous 2005 campaign that made him perhaps the most coveted position prospect in the minors. As a 21 year-old in the AA Southern League, Hermida hammered pitchers for a .293/.457/.518 triple slash. He drew a walk in a jaw-dropping 21.9% of his PA, while popping 18 homers and posting a .225 ISO.

Getting his first extended look in the majors in 2006, Hermida didn’t hit the ground running. Limited by a hip flexor injury, he compiled a modest .310 wOBA in 348 PA. Hermida rarely found the gaps or lifted one over the fence (.117 ISO), but his trademark plate discipline was present. He walked 9.7% of the time, offering at just 19% of pitches tossed outside the strike zone (25% MLB avg).

Hermida appeared to arrive in 2007. In 484 PA for the Fish, he raked to the tune of a .372 wOBA. Hermida’s BABIP was very high at .356, but he walked 9.9% of the time, with a 22.2 O-Swing%. And, he made major strides in the power department. Hermida slugged 18 round-trippers, with a .205 ISO.

Considering Hermida’s age and minor league track record, he appeared poised to bust out in 2008. Instead, Hermida’s once-pristine plate approach eroded.

Jeremy chased nearly 28% of pitches thrown out of the zone. Compounding matters, he took a cut at fewer pitches within the strike zone (59.6%, compared to about 64% the previous two seasons; the MLB avg is 65-66%). Swinging at more pitches in the dirt and taking more offerings over the plate-that’s not exactly what one would have expected from a guy who resembled a Brian Giles clone as a prospect. Hermida’s wOBA dipped to .321.

In 2009, Hermida did a better job of working the count. His O-Swing% fell back down to 23.9%, though his Z-Swing% remained low at 61.7%. The 25 year-old’s walk rate climbed to 11.5%. Hermida experienced a power outage, however:

Hermida’s ISO, by year

Since that high-water mark in 2007, Hermida’s ISO has plummeted: .157 in ’08, and a .133 figure in ’09. His HR/FB rate was 15.7% in 2007, 13% in 2008 and just 10.1% in 2009.

Hermida’s performance against left-handed pitching has taken a turn for the worse over the past few seasons:

Hermida’s wOBA vs. LHP, by year

Baseball-Reference keeps a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. 100 is average, above 100 is above-average for batters, and below 100 is below-average for hitters. Here are Hermida’s sOPS+ figures vs. LHP since 2007:

2007: 128
2008: 108
2009: 72

I would caution against reading too much into platoon splits, as how a batter performs overall is more informative than just how he does against LHP or RHP.

Hermida’s BABIP against lefties was .359 in ’07, .293 in ’08 and just .233 in ’09. That sort of thing can happen when your sample size is about 120 PA per year. There’s not much to suggest that Hermida is good against lefties, but he probably won’t continue to look like Tony Pena Jr. against southpaws, either.

26 in January, Hermida has reached a career crossroads. Boston snagged the arbitration-eligible outfielder on the cheap, hoping that there’s still some vestige of that top prospect left.

From a fantasy standpoint, the swap does damage to whatever value Hermida had. It’s doubtful that he was draft-worthy in most leagues to begin with. But the Red Sox certainly do not figure to enter the 2010 season guaranteeing ample PA to a guy who has been just a smidge above replacement-level the past two seasons.

This past July, the Atlanta Braves severed ties with Jeff Francoeur.

Formerly the golden child of the farm system, Francoeur appeared to establish himself as a franchise pillar in 2007. As a 23 year-old, Frenchy increased his walk rate (albeit modestly) and posted a .337 wOBA. His .340+ BABIP suggested he got some fortunate bounces, but few could have predicted his atrocious 2008 season.

Francoeur’s BABIP regressed severely, but he was an unmitigated disaster at the plate:

Francoeur went from a dark horse MVP candidate in the eyes of some to a Mississippi Brave during the course of the season, as he was demoted to the Southern League for a brief period of time. He did experience pretty awful luck on balls in play, as his expected BABIP (.327) was much higher than his actual BABIP (.277). If we adjust for that, his line improves to .289/.344/.409. Where’s the power, though?

Frenchy posted a stunning -22.7 Park Adjusted Batting Runs in 2008. No other batter in the majors did more damage to his club’s run-scoring chances.

2009 began no better for Francoeur. As a Brave, he batted .250/.282/.352 in 324 PA. But following his July trade to the New York Mets for OF Ryan Church, Francoeur posted a .311/.338/.498 line in 308 PA.

This gave rise to countless “change of scenery” narratives, suggesting all the erstwhile top prospect needed was a one-way ticket out of the Peach State. But did Francoeur really make any changes at the plate that portend to sustained success?

Here are Frenchy’s plate discipline stats with the Braves:

April: 27 O-Swing%, 80.2 Z-Swing%, 89.9 Z-Contact%, 67.1 F-Strike%
May: 42.9 O-Swing%, 79 Z-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact% 69.6 F-Strike%
June: 33.1 O-Swing%, 82.7 Z-Swing%, 89.5 Z-Contact%, 65.6 F-Strike%
July: 40.9 O-Swing%, 78.1 Z-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact% 68 F-Strike%

O-Swing= Outside-Swing Percentage (25% MLB avg)
Z-Swing= Swing pct. on pitches in the strike zone (65.9% MLB avg)
Z-Contact= Pct. of contact on pitches in the strike zone (87.8% MLB avg)
F-Strike= First-Pitch Strike Percentage (58.2% MLB avg)

..And here are his numbers with the Mets:

July: 33.1 O-Swing%, 86.8 Z-Swing%, 93.9 Z-Contact%, 61.8 F-Strike%
August: 37.8 O-Swing%, 79.9 Z-Swing%, 87.8 Z-Contact%, 61.7 F-Strike%
September/October: 37.2 O-Swing%, 83.5 Z-Swing%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 58.7 F-Strike%

Overall with Braves: 35.4 O-Swing%, 80.3 Z-Swing%, 87.4 Z-Contact%, 67.6 F-Strike%
Overall with Mets: 36.5 O-Swing%, 82.9 Z-Swing%, 90.2 Z-Contact%, 60.5 F-Strike%

Francoeur put the ball in play on the first pitch or got behind in the count 0-and-1 less often, and he made more contact on pitches within the strike zone. But it’s hard to say that he made any progress whatsoever in terms of working the count. He still hacked at a sky-high number of pitches, both inside and outside of the zone.

Take a look at Francoeur’s BABIP by month:

April:.280
May: .273
June: .267
July: .282
Aug: .368
Sept/Oct: .348

Frenchy’s BABIP with the Braves was .281. With the Mets, it was .343.

According to this XBABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Frenchy’s BABIP with Atlanta (based on HR, K’s, SB, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and grounders) should have been around .310. As a Met, his batted ball profile suggested a BABIP between .295 and .300.

Francoeur was unlucky with the Braves, and got plenty of breaks with the Mets. His overall XBABIP for the season was .304, compared to an actual .311 mark. In other words, his overall .280/.309/.423 triple-slash is a pretty accurate reflection of his talents.

Frenchy did hit for more power as a Met, with a .187 ISO and 10 HR compared to a .102 ISO and 5 HR with the Braves. However, there are few signs that the soon-to-be 26 year-old made any sort of alteration in his strike-zone judgment. In his new digs, Francoeur still chased pitches wildly off the plate, walking in 3.7% of his PA (3.8% with the Braves).

Over the next few months, much ink will be spilled on how Francoeur got a new lease on his career and is poised to break out in 2010. Unfortunately, a closer look at his season suggests that he remains the same free-swinger who has been nearly 30 runs below average with the bat during his big league tenure. Approach Francoeur cautiously on draft day.

Splashy free agent signings can be alluring for major league clubs. Well-known sluggers are there for the taking, if the price is right. GM’s envision the player popping homers, taking curtain calls and making the pact look like a stroke of genius.

While there are bargains to be found on the free agent market, there are also potential landmines. By definition, the players have six years or more of major league service time, and may well be reaching the end of their peaks. The high-end players offer no discounts: teams are going to pay full-price for their talents.

Too often, GM’s act like impulsive shoppers toting high-limit credit cards. They want the player now. Instant gratification comes at the expense of inking a player past the point at which any real projection of his contributions can be made.

Case in point: Alfonso Soriano. A free-swinger with plenty of thunder in his bat, Soriano hit the free agent market after the 2006 season. He was coming off of his finest campaign in the majors, compiling 5.5 Wins Above Replacement. Soriano blasted the ball for a .377 wOBA, and his transition from second base to the outfield went swiftly.

The Cubs salivated at the prospect of adding an established star to the team’s roster. The North Siders came to terms with Alfonso (31 years old entering the ’07 season), giving him a whopping eight-year, $136M deal.

Soriano’s tenure with the Cubs started off well, as he again compiled 5.5 WAR in 2007 (worth $22.4M). His bat remained strong, with a .380 wOBA. Soriano missed some time with a quadriceps injury, but his first year in Chicago was fruitful.

The righty bopper endured more injury problems in 2008. A calf strain shelved him in April, and then a freak injury broke his hand, keeping him out of commission for nearly two months. Soriano’s lumber was good as ever when he took the field, though, with a .374 wOBA. He posted 3.1 WAR, worth $13.8M on the free agent market.

2009, however, was a different story. A bum left knee plagued Soriano, eventually making him call it quits in early September to get arthroscopic surgery.

He took his customary hack-tastic approach to the dish, swinging at 37 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). Soriano swung at 72.2% of pitches within the zone, well above the 65.9% MLB average.

Soriano made more contact than usual on those in-zone offerings, with a Z-Contact% of 87.2 (84.9% average for Alfonso since 2002). But the contact that he made was weaker. Alfonso hammered pitchers for ISO’s of .261 in 2007 and .252 in 2008. In ’09, that figure dipped to .182. His home run/fly ball rate, 15.8% in ’07 and 17.1% in ’08, was a mundane 11.5% this past year.

Over the years, pitchers have been reluctant to feed Soriano fastballs. And for good reason: he has clubbed heaters for a run value of +1.94 per 100 pitches since 2002. By contrast, Soriano has a Pedro Cerrano-like -0.86 run value versus sliders and -0.42 against curveballs. He continued to hit fastballs well in 2009, if not at the prodigious rate of years past (+0.83 runs/100 pitches).

However, opposing hurlers gave him fewer fastballs than ever before. Soriano was challenged with a fastball just 46 percent of the time, the second-lowest rate among batters with 500+ PA (Ryan Howard was first).

Soriano saw the second-highest percentage of sliders among hitters, getting a hard breaking ball nearly a quarter of the time. He flailed to the tune of -1.06 runs/100 pitches. Of course, that looks downright impressive next to his -2.68 mark against curveballs. Alfonso generally holds his own against changeups (+0.17 runs/100 since ’02), but he got tangled up when pitchers pulled the string in 2009 (-1.71 runs/100).

With an aching knee, Soriano stole just nine bases in 11 attempts. His Speed Score has fallen precipitously since he inked that gargantuan contract: 6.3 in 2007, 4.8 in 2008 and 4.4 in 2009 (the MLB average is around five). Another sign of Soriano’s slowing legs: his UZR/150 in left field has gone from +18.4 in ’07, +2.5 in ’08 and -11.6 in ’09.

In all, Soriano posted a career-worst .314 wOBA, with a .241/.303/.423 triple-slash. The shoddy hitting, coupled with his stationary D, resulted in -0.8 WAR (Soriano made $16M for that sub-replacement-level play).

He might have been a little unlucky on balls put in play. Soriano’s BABIP was .280, compared to his .309 career average. According to this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Alfonso’s rate of HR’s, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, grounders and pop ups suggest that his BABIP should have been about .305. That would improve his line to .266/.328/.448 (that’s assuming all hits were singles). Better, but still a far cry from his established level of play.

The Cubs made an all-too-common mistake in signing Soriano until his age-38 season. The organization put down bug bucks on Alfonso’s performance level at the time, paying him as if his skill set would remain unchanged well past the point at which it was reasonable to assume such a thing.

Now, the club is burdened with an $18M-a-year player for the next five seasons, a player nearing his mid 30’s with a troublesome pattern of leg maladies. Perhaps an off-season of rest and rehabilitation will do wonders for Soriano’s aching body. But fantasy players shouldn’t bet a high-round pick on such a scenario. Soriano could bounce back somewhat in 2010, but age and injuries may have robbed him of his once-elite power/speed combo.

Heading into the 2007 season, Florida’s Josh Johnson looked like an ace-in-waiting.

As a 22 year-old rookie in 2006, the 6-7 righty posted a 3.99 FIP in 24 starts and seven relief appearances. Johnson punched out 7.62 batters per nine innings, while issuing 3.9 BB/9. He showed sharp stuff, with a 92 MPH fastball (an average offering, with +0.03 runs/100 pitches), a wicked mid-80’s slider (+1.81) and a mid-80’s changeup (+1.70).

Johnson finished 4th in Rookie of the Year voting, looking poised to take over where A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett left off.

Sadly, Johnson never was healthy in ’07. Battling elbow problems, Josh didn’t make his first big league start until mid-June. Some blame the balky elbow on then-manager Joe Girardi’s decision to send Johnson back out to the mound after a rain delay in September of ’06. Whatever the cause, Johnson made just four starts before again succumbing to injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery in early August.

After rehabbing, Johnson returned to the bump in July of 2008. He made 14 starts for the Fish, looking none the worse for wear. Johnson whiffed 7.94 batters per nine frames, lowering his walk rate to 2.78 BB/9 in the process. The 2002 fourth-rounder posted a 3.73 XFIP.

Johnson’s stuff was nastier than ever. His fastball crept up to an average of 93.5 MPH, with a +0.51 run value per 100 tosses. Josh had some problems pulling the string (-2.41 runs/100 with the changeup), but his biting mid-80’s slider stifled the opposition (+1.54). In less than a half-season’s worth of pitching, Johnson compiled two Wins Above Replacement.

In 2009, Johnson established himself as a full-fledged ace. Josh was somewhat fortunate in terms of home runs served up (0.6 HR/9, 7.5 HR/FB%), but he was an elite arm regardless. Throwing 209 innings, Johnson had a 3.42 XFIP that ranked 5th among National League starters. His K rate climbed to 8.22 per nine innings, with unusually sharp control for a power arm (2.5 BB/9).

As if the whiff rate and ability to paint the corners weren’t enough, Johnson induced grounders at a career-high 50.3% clip. He jumped ahead of hitters often, with the best first-pitch strike percentage of his big league tenure. Johnson got first-pitch contact or gained the 0-and-1 advantage on the batter 63 percent of the time (58.2% MLB average).

Johnson’s fastball found another gear this past season:

The 25 year-old’s cheddar sat at 95.1 MPH in 2009, a mark topped only by Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Verlander among starters.

Radar gun readings are nice, but results are better. Johnson’s fastball was among the best in the business, at +1.04 runs per 100 pitches (8th among starters). His 87 MPH slider remained sinister (+1.28), and Josh even succeeded on the rare occasion when he tossed a changeup (+2.51). Johnson was worth 5.5 WAR, a performance that would earn him near $25M on the free agent market.

26 in January, Johnson possesses every attribute desired in a premium starting pitcher. He misses bats, rarely gets behind in the count and keeps the ball on the ground. He won’t sneak up on anyone entering 2010, but Johnson is well worth a high-round draft pick. There’s nothing fluky about the performance of this Fish.

Few young sluggers entered the 2009 season with more fanfare than Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce. The sweet-swinging lefty terrorized minor league pitchers, batting .308/.366/.551 on the farm and reaching the big leagues by age 21.

While understandably rough around the edges, Bruce displayed enormous potential in 2008. He popped 21 homers in 413 AB, with a .199 ISO. While most players his age were trying to crack AA, The Boss was nearly a league-average hitter at the highest level (.328 wOBA).

A quick glance at Bruce’s 2009 numbers leaves fantasy owners feeling a little underwhelmed. After all, Jay batted .223, with his wOBA basically unchanged (.329). He rolled his wrist attempting to make a diving catch in July, suffering a fracture that sidelined him until September.

In all, 2009 would appear to be a lost year for the highly-touted right fielder. However, Bruce actually made a good deal of progress at the plate. Here are several reasons to believe in The Boss heading into 2010:

Age and minor league track record

Bruce, who won’t turn 23 until April, has always been young relative to the levels at which he has played. While he wasn’t the most patient batter in the minors (he walked in 8.4% of his PA), Bruce bashed to the tune of a .243 ISO.

He showed no problems with pitchers of either hand, drubbing lefties for a .290/.352/.522 triple-slash and roping righties for a .318/.376/.574 line. Bruce hasn’t hit southpaws in the major leagues, but 230-some AB by a 21-22 year-old can’t exactly be considered conclusive.

Improved plate discipline

Bruce walked in 7.4% of his PA in 2008, but he improved that mark to 9.9% in 2009. His Outside-Swing Percentage dropped from 30.4% in ’08 to 26% this past season (right around the MLB average). That’s a happy development, considering that opposing pitchers gave Jay fewer offerings over the plate. They tossed him a pitch within the strike zone just 45.7% of the time in 2009 (48.3% in 2008; the MLB average is 49-50%). Bruce saw four pitches per PA in ’09, up from 3.8 P/PA in 2008.

Improved contact rate

The Boss but the bat on the ball 81.3% of the time on pitches within the strike zone in 2008, but bumped that number up to 86.6% in 2009 (88% MLB average). That helped Bruce lower his strikeout rate from 26.6% in ’08 to 21.7% in ’09.

Increased power production

Bruce’s ISO climbed from the aforementioned .199 in 2008 to .246 this past year. He clubbed 22 big flies in 345 AB (15.7 AB/HR), topping 2008’s 19.7 AB/HR pace.

Poor luck

Cincy’s franchise player had a .373 BABIP in the minor leagues, and a .298 major league mark in 2008. In 2009, his BABIP dropped off a cliff (.222). That was the lowest BABIP among batters taking 350+ trips to the plate.

Bruce’s line drive rate was extremely low at 13%, but I’m inclined to believe some of that was due to official scorer’s bias. Line drives don’t “exist” the way that some other events on the diamond do. Someone has to make a subjective judgment, saying, “I think that ball was a liner” or “I think that was a fly ball.”

Bruce had a liner rate exceeding 21% in 2008. This year, he had the second-lowest LD% among hitters with 350+PA. Given the authority with which he hit the ball overall, the low liner rate doesn’t appear to be much of a concern. Expect that BABIP to climb significantly in 2010.

Jay Bruce has all the ingredients to be a superstar. In a “disappointing” year, he showed top-shelf power, improved strike-zone discipline and better contact ability. Fantasy owners aren’t going to get another chance to acquire The Boss with anything less than a premium draft pick. If at all possible, nab Bruce now, before he becomes a perennial first-rounder.

The 2009 Kansas City Royals were an offensive disaster. Collectively, K.C. batters compiled -66.2 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs, worst in the American League. The Royals continued to hack wildly at the dish, with the second-lowest walk rate in the Junior Circuit. Not coincidentally, the club posted the second-highest outside-swing percentage in the A.L.

There’s plenty of disappointment to go around. Curious trade acquisition Mike Jacobs was sub-replacement-level for the second consecutive season. Jose Guillen made $12M while being a full two wins below replacement-level. Would-be savior Alex Gordon was derailed by hip surgery.

Not all was lost, however. While many of his teammates were making outs at a dizzying pace, Billy Butler took steps toward becoming an All-Star-caliber hitter.

We chronicled Butler’s career last offseason, noting his stratospheric .336/.416/.561 minor league line. Kansas City’s 2004 first-round draft pick had a mild age-22 season in 2008 (.275/.324/.400, .318 wOBA), due mostly to a tepid performance against right-handers and a high groundball rate for a 6-2, 240 pound guy with minimal speed.

The future looked extremely bright for Butler, though, given his superb minor league track record. And in 2009, he began to show to strong secondary skills which made him a top prospect.

In 2008, Butler appeared to take a contact-oriented approach at the plate. He put the bat on the ball 93.3% of the time on pitches within the strike zone, well above the 88 percent MLB average. That led to a very low punch out rate (12.9 K%), but the contact might have come at the expense of some power. Butler posted a middle infielder-like .124 ISO, while going yard on just 8.2% of his fly balls hit.

Butler didn’t put much of a charge in those fly balls, with a .440 slugging percentage in 2008 (the A.L. average was .566).

In 2009, by contrast, Butler waited for his pitch more often. His P/PA increased from 3.6 to 3.9, with his first-pitch strike percentage dipping from 58.6% in ’08 (right around the MLB average) to 53.6% in ’09. Butler didn’t make as much contact within the strike zone (88.6 percent), which led to a higher K rate (16.9 percent). However, the 23 year-old did far more damage when he did connect.

Butler’s ISO jumped to .191, with his HR/FB rate climbing to 11.9 percent. He slugged .776 on fly balls (.603 A.L. average). Billy still hit more grounders than one would like to see (47.3 percent), but there are plenty of positives here.

Kansas City’s first baseman continued to annihilate lefties, with a 150 sOPS+ (sOPS+ compares a batter’s performance in a given spit to the league average; 100 is average for a hitter, below 100 is below-average and above 100 is above-average). But he was no slouch against right-handers either, with a 121 sOPS+. In other words, Butler was 50 percent better than the league average vs. southpaws, and 21 percent above the norm against righties.

His more restrained plate approach also led to more free passes. Butler increased his walk rate from 6.9 percent in 2008 to 8.7 percent this past year. That’s more in line with what we saw in the minors, when he drew a free pass in 11.5 percent of his PA.

Overall, Butler improved his wOBA to .369, while posting a .301/.362/.492 line. He’s not an elite option at first base (not when the MLB average at the position was .277/.362/.483 in 2009, but he could yet become an offensive force. Butler turns just 24 in April.

Target Butler on draft day. He could provide the punch of some more well-known first basemen, but at a lower price tag.

With an eyes-to-ankles strike zone, mammoth power and uncanny contact ability, Vladimir Guerrero has long made a mockery out of the concept of plate discipline.

From Montreal to L.A., Vlad has never seen a pitch he didn’t think he could hammer. And for the most part, he has been right. Guerrero has a career .397 wOBA, ranking 10th among active players with at least 3,000 PA. The Impaler has the 7th-most Park Adjusted Batting Runs among hitters since 2002. And, he has eclipsed the 30 homer mark eight times.

Are those high-slugging times behind Guerrero, though? Over the last three seasons, Vlad’s wOBA has dipped from .393 in 2007, .373 in 2008 and a mortal .343 in 2009. Guerrero turns 35 this February (we think), and he’s not going to garner a king’s ransom his second time through free agency. Is Vlad still a valuable fantasy option, or is Father Time sapping the free-swinger’s strength?

Much like the original Impaler, Guerrero engendered fear in his opponents. “Fear” is a nebulous term in baseball (see any Jim Rice Hall of Fame discussion), but Guerrero was intentionally walked an average of 26 times per season between 2005 and 2007. That figure dipped to 16 in 2008, and just three in 2009.

Given Vlad’s well-known tendency to hack at balls, strikes, fastballs, breaking stuff, low flying birds and hot dog wrappers, the lack of intentional free passes has led to a plummeting walk rate. Guerrero’s BB% has fallen from 11% in ’07 to just 4.7% in ’09.

Want another indication that pitchers are more willing to challenge Guerrero? Take a look at the percentage of pitches thrown to Vlad within the strike zone. As one might expect, pitchers are apt to toss Guerrero a pitch off the plate, considering his expansive strike zone (Vlad has swung at roughly 45% of pitches thrown out of the zone from 2007-2009, compared to the 25% MLB average).

But, those hurlers have thrown him more pitches within the zone recently. Just 32.7% of pitches thrown to Guerrero crossed the plate in 2007. That figure increased to 40.8% in ’08, and 43% this year. That’s still well below the near-50% MLB average, but it’s a noticeable uptick nonetheless.

Guerrero still creamed the ball in ’07 and ’08, with Isolated Power marks of .223 and .218. But extra-base knocks were more scarce this season, with a .164 ISO. Vlad was rarely healthy, serving separate DL stints for a torn pectoral muscle and a left knee strain.

Vlad hit more fly balls in 2009 (near 40%) than in any other season dating back to 2002. But his home run/fly ball rate fell considerably. Guerrero clubbed a homer on 14.5% of his fly balls in 2007 and 16.1% in 2008, but a mild 11.5% in ’09.

In 2009, Guerrero pulled fewer pitches. And while he hit for far more power than the average right-handed A.L. batter on middle-and-opposite-field pitches in ’07 and ’08, that was not the case this past season (numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

Guerrero hit more balls up the middle and to the opposite field, with far less authority than in years past. Was Vlad a little late in catching up with fastballs this year? The numbers suggest that’s the case.

During the course of his career, Guerrero has crushed pitches of all types. It’s really quite remarkable: fastballs (+1.11 runs/100 pitches), sliders (+1.87), cutters (+1.95), curves (+2.78), changeups (+1.95), splitters (+2.93). Heck, he’s even knocked around the knuckleball (+4.85).

In 2009, however, Vlad posted a paltry -0.74 run/100 value against heaters. That was one of the 20 lowest marks among batters with 400+ PA. Guerrero also popped the ball up more often than usual, with a 13.7 infield/fly ball rate (11.2% average since 2002), and he made less contact on pitches within the strike zone (87.1%, 89.1% avg. since ’02).

The cumulative effect of Guerrero’s injuries has robbed him of the ability to play the outfield (he played the OF just two times in ’09). This means that he won’t qualify as an outfielder in most leagues. Just as Vlad will only appeal to A.L. teams this winter, his value will be dinged by only qualifying in a “utility” spot in fantasy leagues.

None of this is to suggest that we should stick a fork in Vlad. He surely was hampered by injuries in 2009, as he batted .290/.319/.415 in the first half but a more palatable .300/.347/.498 after the All-Star break.

The problem is, owners just can’t count on Guerrero ever playing pain-free again. It wouldn’t be totally surprising to see Vlad go DH somewhere and rebound somewhat at the plate. But in all likelihood, his days as an elite slugger are coming to a close.

In December of 2004, the Oakland Athletics broke up “The Big Three.” The venerated trio of Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito dissolved in short order, with Mulder shipped to the St. Louis Cardinals and Hudson swapped to Atlanta just two days later.

The Mulder deal has surpassed GM Billy Beane’s wildest expectations. While Mulder topped 200 frames in his first season in St. Louis, a myriad of shoulder injuries and surgeries have all but ended the left-hander’s career.

Meanwhile, the A’s got three superb seasons from Dan Haren, who averaged 4.3 Wins Above Replacement from 2005-2007.

Oakland then flipped Haren to the Diamondbacks for a prospect bounty including rookie stud Brett Anderson (3.8 WAR in 2009), top slugging prospect Chris Carter (.241 ISO between AA and AAA), outfielder Aaron Cunningham and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

Gonzalez was traded to the Rockies as part of the Holliday deal, and then Holliday was bartered to St. Louis for a package including 3B?/1B?/DH? Brett Wallace.

Suffice it to say, that original Mulder trade has borne much fruit for the A’s. It might seem crazy now, given how wildly successful Haren has become, but the top young player acquired in that trade was supposed to be Daric Barton.

The 28th overall pick in the 2003 draft, Barton began his career as a catcher before shedding the tools of ignorance for good in 2005. But from the get go, the lefty batter displayed a plate approach well beyond his years.

Daric established himself as an on-base fiend, posting a .294/.420/.424 line in rookie ball in 2003. He followed that up with a whopping .313/.445/.511 triple-slash as an 18 year-old in the Low-A Midwest League in 2004.

Baseball America ranked Barton as the second-base prospect in the A’s system prior to the 2005 season. BA gushed that “while Dan Haren and even Kiko Calero will pay more immediate dividends, many consider Barton to be the real prize Oakland received in the Mark Mulder trade with Oakland.”

Though Daric ultimately couldn’t remain behind the dish (he caught one game in ’05), he did nothing to dispel the notion that his bat would make him a building block for the A’s. With High-A Stockton of the California League, Barton batted .318/.438/.469 in 361 PA.

Considering the hitter-friendly nature of the Cal League, Barton’s .151 Isolated Power was pretty mild. But for a teenager to garner far more free passes than punch outs (17.2 BB%, 13.6 K%) is pretty special.

Bumped up to the AA Texas League for the second half of the ’05 season, Barton didn’t skip a beat. He hit .316/.410/.491 in 249 PA, owning the strike zone by walking in 14.1% of his PA and whiffing 12 percent. Barton even put a charge in the ball more often, with his ISO rising to .175.

Barton was a prospect darling by this point, topping the A’s farm system while also getting a place on the personal top 50 prospects lists of Baseball America’s Jim Callis, Will Lingo, John Manuel and Allan Simpson. BA called Daric’s pitch recognition “off the charts.” They did, however, voice concern over Barton’s ultimate power potential.

He was said to have “a tendency to drop the barrel of the bat and slice balls into the gaps.” No one questioned Barton’s on-base chops, but first basemen with anything less than hulking power numbers have a wary eye cast upon them.

Unfortunately, Barton wouldn’t get much of a chance to prove his pop in 2006. He continued to work the count in his first taste of AAA ball (.259/.389/.395 in 180 PA), though he rarely went deep or found the gaps. Barton’s season was derailed, however, when Tony Womack (career OBP: .317) crashed into him at first base. Daric broke his left elbow in the incident. To make up for the lost development, Barton took his cuts in the Dominican League that winter.

While still praising Barton’s “textbook swing”, BA again questioned his ability to be an over-the-fence threat. Daric’s power was called “average at best”, and if he didn’t show more thump, Barton would be a “less-than intimidating threat for a first baseman.”

True to form, Barton showcased precocious strike-zone judgment and underwhelming pop at AAA Sacramento in 2007. He posted a .293/.389/.438 line, drawing a free pass 13.1% of the time and whiffing 13.4 percent. Still, Barton’s ISO was just .145, and his major league equivalent line was a tepid .254/.331/.378. Daric did everything he could to assuage those concerns in a late-season cup of jobe with the A’s, bashing to the tune of .347/.429/.639 with 4 HR in 84 PA.

Oakland gave Barton everyday AB’s in 2008, and the results were…*yawn*. In 523 PA, he compiled a .226/.327/.348 triple-slash, with a .121 ISO that ranked dead last among first baseman with 500+ PA.

Barton did work the count well, walking 12.7% and offering at just 16.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). And he got few bounces to go his way, with a .272 BABIP. Still, singles-hitting first basemen just don’t cut it (for reference, the average first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 in 2008).

In 2009, the A’s decided to bring back Jason Giambi to man first base. While the Giambino gave credence to the “you can’t go home again” concept (-0.3 WAR), Barton batted .261/.386/.458 in 313 PA back at Sacramento. Daric walked 15.1%, posting a .198 ISO. That translated to a .223/.322/.373 showing at the highest level, per Minor League Splits.

Called up in early June, Barton mostly rode the pine that month and then hit the DL with a pulled right hamstring in late July. When he returned in late August, the 24 year-old finally showed a pulse at the plate.

Not that Barton lit the world on fire, but he finished the ’09 season with a .269/.372/.413 line in 192 major league PA’s. He drew a free pass 14 percent of the time, hacking at just 13.5% of pitches off the plate. His ISO was .144.

So, what does the future hold for Barton? It has become exceedingly clear that he is never doing to possess the brute strength normally associated with the first base position (average 1B line in 2009: .277/.362/.483). And, if you listen really closely, you can hear Chris Carter and Brett Wallace breathing down Barton’s neck.

Barton’s window of opportunity hasn’t slammed shut, though. Wallace remains at the hot corner for the time being, and Carter’s best position is “hitter”, so the former White Sox and D-Backs prospect may well end up at DH.

At this point, the best-case scenario for Barton’s career would be something like the current, less-powerful version of Nick Johnson (hopefully without the need to be bubble-wrapped prior to taking the field). But Barton must hit the ground running in 2010, lest he be bumped out of the picture by branches of the original trade that brought him to the A’s.