Brewers Clear Path For Escobar

Now that J.J. Hardy has been shipped to the Twin Cities for CF Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee’s shortstop position belongs solely to Alcides Escobar.

The soon-to-be 23 year-old, signed out of Venezuela in 2003, has long been lauded for his slick glove work. Sean Smith’s Total Zone defensive system rated Escobar as +24 runs above average per 150 defensive games in 2008 and +21 in 2009. Hardy is an outstanding defender in his own right, but Alcides certainly won’t hurt Milwaukee’s pitchers, either.

Considering his position on the defensive spectrum and his exquisite range, Escobar could be a huge asset without putting up many crooked numbers on the scoreboard. But what about that bat? Can Alcides hit enough to make him relevant in fantasy circles in 2010?

The 6-1, 180 pound Escobar made his pro debut as a 17 year-old in 2004, taking his cuts in the Rookie-level Pioneer League. He batted .281/.348/.342 in 262 PA, displaying enough talent to crack Milwaukee’s top 30 prospects entering the 2005 season (Baseball America rated him 25th). Escobar was raw, to be sure, as he walked in less than 8% of his PA and was 20-29 in SB attempts.

Bumped up to the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2005, Alcides took his hacking to another level. Posting a .271/.305/.362 triple-slash in 562 PA, Escobar drew a walk just 3.6% of the time. With a .091 ISO, Alcides rarely got the ball out of the infield. He swiped 30 bases, but his technique remained unrefined (13 CS).

While that assessment sounds negative, keep in mind that Escobar was the same age as a high school senior, yet he managed not to embarrass himself at the plate while rating as a plus defender at shortstop. Baseball America jumped Escobar all the way up to 6th on Milwaukee’s prospects list.

2006 proved to be the toughest year of Alcides’ minor league career. He broke his finger in April, missing several weeks of action. Escobar never did get going at the dish, as he stumbled to a .259/.299/.308 line in 382 PA. Extra-base hits were the rarest of commodities (.049 ISO), and Alcides still swung from his heels with a 5.2 BB%. On the positive side, his 78 percent success rate on the base paths (28 SB in 36 attempts) was the highest mark of his career. BA ranked Escobar 9th among Brewers farm hands, believing that he had a “chance to grow into gap power.”

Milwaukee sent Escobar back to High-A to begin the 2007 season. The defensive stalwart swatted pitchers for a .325/.347/.377 triple-slash in 283 PA. However, the big gap between his ’06 and ’07 numbers appeared to be more of a BABIP spike (.303 in ’06 to .373 in ’07) than legitimate improvement in his plate approach. Escobar walked 2.5% of the time, with a .052 ISO. He was reckless on the bases as well: he snatched 18 bases, but was caught stealing 10 times (64% success rate).

The Brewers were encouraged enough to promote Escobar to the AA Southern League mid-season, where he batted .283/.314/.354 in 245 PA. It was much the same from an offensive standpoint. He improved his walk rate (4.6 BB%) and power output (.071 ISO), but we’re speaking in relative terms here. Strangely, Escobar was glued to first base in AA. He stole just four bases in seven tries.

Encouraged by his play as a 20 year-old just two rungs from the majors, BA bumped Escobar to third in the Milwaukee system. Alcides was said to have gotten stronger, which “stopped pitchers from knocking the bat out of his hands.”

Back at AA Huntsville in 2008, Escobar hit .328/.363/.434 in 597 PA. A .375 BABIP certainly didn’t hurt, and he did remain a free swinger (5.4 BB%). But Escobar posted a .100+ ISO for the first time in his career (.106). His 8 HR in ’08 topped the combined 7 HR he hit from 2004-2007. Escobar also used his wheels more efficiently, going 34 for 42 in steal attempts (81 percent success rate). BA dubbed him the best prospect in the system heading into the 2009 season.

Getting his first taste of AAA ball in ’09, Escobar didn’t disappoint. He managed a .298/.353/.409 line in 487 PA, walking 6.9% of the time with a .112 ISO. The secondary skills were still mild, but Escobar transformed from a potential liability at the plate during his early years to a guy who can at least occasionally deliver something offensively. He continued to use his speed to good effect as well, with a whopping 42 SB in 52 attempts (81 percent).

Called up to Milwaukee in August, Escobar hit .304/.333/.368 in 125 PA. Alcides was anxious in the batter’s box, walking just 3.1% and swinging at nearly 30% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. He rarely drove the ball (.064 ISO), while making plenty of contact (92.7 Z-Contact%, 87.8% MLB average). Escobar stole four bags in six tries.

Heading into 2010, fantasy owners should expect Escobar to go through some growing pains at the plate. According to Minor League Splits, Alcides’ AAA line equated to a .259/.301/.345 showing at the major league level. That translated line could be selling Escobar a bit short batting average-wise: he had a .346 BABIP in the minors, suggesting his world-class speed allows him to beat out more infield hits than the average batter.

It seems unlikely that the lanky shortstop will become more than a decent hitter, given his paucity of secondary skills, but he has the potential to steal 25+ bags in 2010. Though his plate discipline isn’t quite as good, Escobar could be the National League’s answer to Elvis Andrus.