Strong Performers

Heath Bell |Padres

Bell boasts a 2.10 xFIP on the season, with 13.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Of course, just about every San Diego reliever is thrashing opposing batters: the Padres have a league-best 3.30 ‘pen xFIP.

Jonathan Broxton |Dodgers

Big Jon has a career-best 15.3 swinging strike rate this year, quite the accomplishment considering he posted 14.5% marks in 2008 and 2009. Batters are flailing at his stuff to the tune of a 40.7 outside swing percentage (27% MLB average). The result? a 1.21 xFIP, with 14.9 K/9 and 0.93 BB/9 in 9.2 IP.

Billy Wagner |Braves

Wagner continues pumping mid-90’s gas, getting swinging strikes 12.2 percent and inducing weak contact: his infield/fly percentage is 18.2 percent (the MLB average is around 11%). He hasn’t gotten many save ops, but he has a 3.08 xFIP, 13.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 10 innings of work.

Carlos Marmol |Cubs

In 13.2 innings, the Cubs’ stopper has punched out 27 hitters.. That’s 17.78 K/9 (eat your heart out, Broxton). Marmol’s swinging strike rate is 17.1 percent, and he’s actually getting ahead of hitters for a change (66.7 first pitch strike%, compared to a career 52.6% average). That has resulted in 4.61 BB/9, downright surgical control for a guy who issued nearly eight free passes per nine frames last year. His xFIP sits at two.

Brian Wilson |Giants

Wilson’s whiffing a career-high 10.97 per nine innings, with 4.22 BB/9 and a 3.10 xFIP in 10.2 innings. He’s getting plenty of grounders, with a 69.2 GB%, and he’s getting ahead in the count (73.3 first pitch strike percentage). While Wilson has typically used his mid-90’s fastball about 70 percent of the time, he’s going to his high-80’s cutter more than ever this season.

Chad Qualls |Diamondbacks

Huh? What’s Qualls doing here?

Arizona’s relief corps has a ghastly 5.12 xFIP for the season (only the Indians have a worse mark), but Qualls shouldn’t be discarded based on his 7.36 ERA. He sports a 3.16 xFIP in 11 IP, with 9 K/9, 3.27 BB/9 and typical ground ball tendencies (54.3 GB%). Needless to say, hits won’t continue to fall in against him 39.4 percent of the time, his 61.7% strand rate will rise, and he won’t give up home runs like he’s throwing underhanded on a little league field (25 HR/FB%). Available in nearly a quarter of Yahoo leagues, Qualls is a good buy-low candidate.

Francisco Rodriguez |Mets

K-Rod has a microscopic ERA (0.71 in 12.2 IP), but that has much to do with a .233 BABIP, a 92.9% strand rate and nary a home run surrendered. His xFIP is 4.07, so he’s not suddenly dealing like he did during his halcyon Angels days in the early-and-mid-aughts.

Matt Capps |Nationals

Capps is racking up saves and has a 1.10 ERA. To the former Pirate’s credit, he is pitching decently: 8.82 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 and a 3.90 xFIP. Capps’ outside swing rate (39.5%) and swinging strike rate (11.3%) are career bests. But he’s not going to continue to strand 91.4% of base runners, and his HR/FB% of five will likely rise.

Leo Nunez |Marlins

Like the two guys ahead of him, Nunez has a fantastic ERA (0.79) and merely good component stats (8.74 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 3.79 xFIP). His strand rate sits at a perfect 100 percent, and his BABIP is .087. There’s a better chance of the Fish selling out all their remaining home games than Nunez keeping those numbers up.

Francisco Cordero |Reds

Cordero’s xFIPs over the 2007-2010 seasons? 2.82, 3.98, 4.06 and 4.37. He’s not a bad option, but the 35-year-old (this week) shouldn’t be confused with an elite-level reliever. In 16.1 IP, Cordero has 8.27 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.

Matt Lindstrom |Astros

After posting mediocre peripherals with the Marlins in 2008 (4.24 xFIP) and 2009 (4.65), Lindstrom has started his Astros career with a 3.02 xFIP in 12 IP. He has posted rates of 8.25 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9, with a 58.3 GB% that’s well above his 47.2% career average. According to his Pitch F/X page, Lindstrom is going to a two-seamer, with more horizontal and less vertical break, this season. His first pitch strike percentage was just 54.2 last year, but it’s up to 66% in 2010.

Ryan Franklin |Cardinals

Whatever Faustian bargain Franklin made last year to avoid homers (3.2 HR/FB% in 2009), it has carried over to 2010: he has yet to give up a round-tripper in 12 innings. His control has been fantastic (no walks, 73.9 first pitch strike%), and his xFIP is 3.76.

Franklin Morales |Rockies

The southpaw with the herky-jerky delivery is missing the zone often (6.55 BB/9, 50.9 first pitch strike%), but he hasn’t compensated by missing bats (6.55 K/9, 5.4 swinging strike rate). It’s just 11 innings, but Morales’ 6.46 xFIP suggests that he still has a ways to go. Huston Street, meanwhile, is nearing a return from a shoulder injury.

Octavio Dotel |Pirates

Dotel hasn’t been as bad as his 8.74 ERA suggests: quirky BABIP (.411), left on base (50.6%) and HR/FB (16.7%) can happen in a small sample size of 11.1 innings. His xFIP is 4.45, as Dotel is missing plenty of lumber like usual (11.91 K/9) and walking plenty as well (4.76 BB/9).

Keep a close eye on Evan Meek, the 26-year-old former Rule V pick from the Rays. Equipped with low-to-mid-90’s heat, a low-90’s cutter, and low-80’s breaking stuff, Meek has long missed bats and racked up ground balls. His control, however, held him back. Not in 2010. In 17 IP, Meek has a K per inning and 2.65 BB/9, retaining a strong 53.5 GB% and posting a 2.94 xFIP.

Trevor Hoffman |Brewers

With a 6.60 xFIP in 10 innings, the 43-year-old changeup artist is scuffling. Tossing his fastball more and his signature off-speed pitch less, Hoffman’s swinging strike rate has dipped from 10.6% in 2009 to 5.4% this year. Always an extreme fly ball pitcher, Hoffman’s ground ball rate in 2010 is 12.8%. Carlos Villanueva and LaTroy Hawkins are possibilities if Trevor Time continues to be a nightmare for the Brew Crew.

Brad Lidge/Jose Contreras |Phillies

Folding chair 1, Ryan Madson 0. Following surgery to repair his broken right toe (no word on his bruised ego), Madson will be out a minimum of two months.

Speaking of wounded egos, Lidge returned to action on April 30th after spending the first month of the season rehabbing from offseason elbow and knee injuries. So far, he’s sitting 92.5 MPH with his fastball, continuing a decline that has seen his heater dip from an average of 96 MPH in 2005. Lidge wasn’t 7.21 ERA bad in ’09, but he’s got a lot to prove considering the 4.76 xFIP that he posted.

Contreras, meanwhile, is dealing out of the ‘pen. The 38 year-old has 14 K’s and no walks in 8.2 IP so far, with an average fastball velocity of 94.8 MPH and a slider at 88-89 MPH (he was 90-92 MPH with the fastball as a starter, and 85-85 with the slider).

Mike Leake went from Arizona State to the Arizona Fall League to Goodyear, Arizona to Cincinnati in the blink of an eye. The Reds selected the 6-1, 190 pound right-hander with the eighth pick in the 2009 draft, and after impressive fall league and spring training performances, Leake cracked the major league rotation to open 2010.

Leading up to the draft, Baseball America said the following about Leake:

What he lacks in pure physicality, he makes up for in athleticism and results. Leake pounds the strike zone with a fastball that sits 88-92 mph. He can dial it up to 94, but prefers to work at lower speeds to get more movement. Throwing from a lower three-quarters arm slot, he gets a lot of armside run and sink on his fastball that results in a lot of groundballs. He also throws a changeup, slider and cutter that grade out as above-average offerings.

In five starts so far, Leake has posted rates of 5.88 K/9 and 4.28 BB/9, with a strong 54.5 percent ground ball rate. His ERA (2.94) outpaces his expected FIP (4.37), as Leake has benefitted from a low .263 batting average on balls in play, a 6.9 home run per fly ball rate (the big league average is around 10-12 percent) and a 77.7 percent strand rate that’s probably going to come down some. That’s not to take a negative outlook on his start: for a guy with very limited professional experience to reach the majors and perform at a league-average clip from the get-go is quite impressive.

Leake has placed 48.2 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (right at the MLB average), while getting a first pitch strike 58.9 percent (57.7% MLB average). After issuing 12 free passes against the Cubs and Pirates, Leake has shown much better control over his last three starts. Hitters are making contact 82.8 percent of the time (80.7% MLB average), and tallying swinging strikes 6.4 percent (8.3% MLB average).

That BA scouting report noted Leake’s laundry list of pitches, and the Sun Devils star hasn’t been bashful about mixing all of them into his game plan. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, Leake is showcasing an 88-89 MPH sinker, an 80-81 MPH slider, an 83 MPH changeup, a 77 MPH curveball, an 89 MPH cutter and an 88-89 MPH four-seam fastball (it could probably be lumped in with the sinker, but the pitch has slightly less tailing action in on righty batters). Here are the strike and whiff percentages for the pitches so far, compared to the major league average:

Leake’s sinker is getting strikes, if few whiffs. His slider and changeup have been excellent, getting batters to swing and miss at rates well above the major league average. Those hitters are having a hard time laying off the slider and change: they have swung at the slider 54.1 percent (47.7% MLB average) and the changeup 60 percent (48.1% MLB average). The less-utilized curve and cutter aren’t hitting the mark or fooling opponents.

Overall, Leake’s beginning in the majors has to be considered a success. He’s throwing strikes after a bumpy beginning and getting plenty of grounders. The 22 year-old hasn’t missed a lot of bats, and he might not be a huge strikeout pitcher in the long run. But with an expansive repertoire, average K rates, good control and a tendency to keep the ball down, Leake could become a poor man’s Tim Hudson.

The Baltimore Orioles are off to a rough start at the plate. The O’s currently have a .308 team wOBA, ranking 11th in the American League. Baltimore batters have hacked at 30 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, a mark topped only by the Blue Jays and Royals. In particular, the outfielders have made outs at a dizzying clip: Orioles’ fly catchers have a collective .300 wOBA, besting only the Athletics among Junior Circuit clubs.

Expect that mark to improve in the weeks and months to come. Matt Klaassen recently discussed the poor luck on balls put in play endured by OF/DH Luke Scott, but Scott isn’t the only O’s hitter whose underlying performance is better than the ugly line that he currently holds. Nolan Reimold sits at the Mendoza Line, but he and his fantasy owners should expect that to soon change.

Reimold, 26, is a 2005 second-round pick out of Bowling Green State who compiled a .286/.383/.521 triple-slash in the minors. Though he showed quality secondary skills (12.5 percent walk rate, .235 Isolated Power), Reimold’s ascent to the majors was slowed by a series of injuries: foot and back problems in 2006 and a strained oblique in 2007.

Reaching Baltimore in May of 2009, Reimold put up a .279/.365/.466 line in 411 plate appearances during his rookie season. He popped 15 home runs with a .187 ISO, walking in 11.4 percent of his PA while posting a .365 wOBA. Injuries again crept into the conversation, as Reimold was shut down in mid-September with a left Achilles ailment that required surgery.

In 2010, the hulking 6-4 hitter was expected to be an offensive asset by ZiPS, CHONE and (especially) the FANS:

ZiPS: .273/.345/.440, .346 wOBA
CHONE: .275/.355/.477, .362 wOBA
FANS: .281/.370/.484, .372 wOBA

However, even after going deep off of David Robertson on Cinco de Mayo, Reimold owns a .200/.305/.357 line in 82 PA (.299 wOBA). The former Falcon’s Yahoo ownership has taken a dive to 26 percent. Look a little deeper, though, and it appears that there’s not much to worry about.

Reimold’s rate of free passes taken is 12.2%, up from last season. His K rate is slightly higher (24.3% in ’10, 21.5% in ’09) and his power is down a bit (.157 ISO). But neither of those changes are drastic, and given the sample size, they’re hardly alarming.

The biggest difference between Reimold’s debut and his 2010 season to date is his BABIP: .316 in 2009, and just .231 this year. Nothing in his batted ball profile has altered dramatically. He’s hitting more fly balls (which do have a lower BABIP than grounders), but those extra flys are in place of infield fly balls, the closest thing to a gimme out on a ball put in play. Point to the line drive rate if you’d like, but one person’s line drive can be another’s fly ball.

ZiPS projects Reimold for a .265/.338/.434 (.341 wOBA) performance for the rest of 2010. Personally, I’d take the over on that line if he has no further injury problems. Reimold’s misfortune provides fantasy owners with the chance to pick up a good hitter at a discount price.

What do Angels third baseman Brandon Wood and Marlins left fielder Chris Coghlan have in common? They share the sordid distinction of posting the worst weighted on base averages in their respective leagues (minimum 50 plate appearances). Wood, 25, trails all AL hitters with a .197 wOBA in 81 trips to the plate. The 24 year-old Coghlan, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, brings up the rear in the senior circuit with a .206 wOBA in 96 PA. What’s going on here?

Wood scuffled in a small amount of playing time with the Angels from 2007-2009, batting .192/.222/.313. Pitchers carved him up, as Wood walked just three percent of the time and posted a sub-70 percent contact rate (80-81% MLB average). Still, it seemed premature to write off the Angels’ 2003 first-round pick as a bust. With Chone Figgins Seattle-bound, Wood had a good chance to take over third base. ZiPS, the FANS and CHONE all projected a mild performance for Wood in 2010:

ZiPS: .244/.300/.422, .316 wOBA
FANS: .254/.311/.445, .327 wOBA
CHONE: .246/.309/.453, .330 wOBA

At this point, L.A. and fantasy owners alike would be downright giddy if Wood could come close to those numbers. A .245 BABIP hasn’t helped, but he has been bad by any measure. He’s batting .179/.200/.231, and he’s hacking prodigiously. In posting a 2.5 percent walk rate and whiffing 30.8 percent, Wood has chased 41 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (27% MLB average). The righty batter is down in the count before you can say “Francoeur”: Wood’s 67.9 first pitch strike percentage is slightly more than 10 percentage points above the big league average. Swinging at junk so often, Wood hasn’t made much loud contact. His Isolated Power is .051.

Coghlan, meanwhile, looks at Wood’s ISO with envy. The lefty batter has yet to post an extra base hit this season. That’s right: you have the same ISO as last year’s Rookie of the Year, .000. While he wasn’t a power hitter in ’09, Coghlan posted a .321/.390/.460 triple-slash (.372 wOBA). The projection systems figured that he would regress somewhat this season (his batting average on balls in play was .365), but his bat looked comfortably above average:

ZiPS: .287/.358/.413, .345 wOBA
CHONE: .296/.371/.434, .357 wOBA
FANS: .300/.379/.422, .359 wOBA

Instead, Coghlan is slashing .182/.242/.182. While he isn’t struggling to control the zone as much as Wood, Coghlan’s plate discipline has also been poor.

During his award-winning season, Florida’s ’06 supplemental first-round pick swung at just 20.9 percent of pitches out of the zone, walking 9.4 percent. This season, his O-Swing is up to 34.8 percent and his walk rate is down to 7.3 percent. Coghlan’s K rate has climbed from 15.3% to 27.3%, and his first pitch strike percentage is 62.5% (57.3% in 2009). Considering Coghlan’s showing in 2009 and his history of controlling the zone in the minors (11.8 BB%, 13.1 K%), it’s surprising that he suddenly resembles a raw rookie.

Lunging at pitches that he normally takes, Coghlan has chopped the ball into the ground 52.4 percent this year, up from 47.6 percent in ’09. His BABIP is just .250, but Coghlan has popped the ball up 21.4 percent in 2010, compared to 7.1 percent the previous season (the MLB average is around 11 percent). Those infield flies are near-automatic outs.

Wood has lost just about all of his supporters in fantasy leagues (owned in four percent of Yahoo leagues), while Coghlan has retained some good will from his 2009 campaign (43 percent). For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects a .237/.291/.400 line from Wood (.305 wOBA) and a .275/.345/.391 (.332 wOBA) performance from Coghlan.

It’s hard to recommend Wood at this point, but Coghlan could be a decent buy-low option in deep mixed leagues and NL-only formats. Given his track record, it seems unlikely that he suddenly, permanently forgot how to tell a ball from a strike.

When San Francisco Giants starter Tim Lincecum broke into the majors back in May of 2007, he was a mop-topped, rail thin kid firing mid-90’s bullets toward home plate. While he still might fit the physical description of a high school freshman, his pitching approach has changed drastically over the years.

During the 2007 season, Lincecum averaged 94.2 MPH with his fastball, throwing the pitch about 67 percent of the time while mixing in 81 MPH curveballs (thrown 20 percent) and 84 MPH changeups (13 percent). Take a look at his pitch selection since that point:

Lincecum’s fastball velocity has dipped nearly three MPH since 2007, and he’s going to the heat far less often. Instead, he’s increasingly relying upon what can only be described as a toxic changeup.

According to our pitch type run values, Timmy’s change has been worth +3.27 runs per 100 pitches over the past three calendar years. It’s the sort of offering that can cause batters to have an existential crisis at the dish: Lincecum has thrown the pitch for a strike 75.9 percent this season (60.7% MLB average). It has a 34.3 percent whiff rate (12.6% MLB average). The pitch has been swung at 69.9 percent of the time (48.1% MLB average), to no avail.

While the Pitch F/X data differs somewhat from the Baseball Info Solutions data in the chart above, we can see that Lincecum is going to a two-seam fastball a little over 16 percent of the time in 2010. Previously, Lincecum tossed a four-seamer with little horizontal movement but a good deal of “rising” action, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. That may help explain Lincecum’s career-high 50 percent ground ball rate this year.

Lincecum, sitting 91 MPH with a four-seamer and two-seamer and going to his change over a quarter of the time, is even harder to hit than his previous, higher-octane self. His contact rate, between 74 and 76% from 2006-2008, is just 70 percent this season (80-81% MLB average). That’s tied with rotation mate Jonathan Sanchez for the lowest mark in the majors. Lincecum’s swinging strike, which ranged from 10.3-11.8% from ’06 to ’08, sits at an obscene 14.4. Opposing hitters just can’t lay off his stuff: Lincecum has a major league-best 35.8 outside swing percentage in 2010. That blows away his 24-27% marks the previous three years, as well as the 27% big league average.

In 42.1 innings so far, Lincecum laps the field with a 1.98 expected FIP (xFIP). The closest competitor is Roy Halladay, at a still-ridiculous-but-distant 2.78. Lincecum is punching out 11.91 batters per nine innings (best among starters) and has issued just 1.7 BB/9. Aside from his cap (the only thing nastier than his than his changeup), Lincecum has changed just about everything since he debuted. And right now, he’s pitching at a different level than the competition.

As a lefty who can spin curves that put Beyonce to shame (okay, not really), Gio Gonzalez garners attention. Gio whiffed 10.3 batters per nine innings on the farm and rated among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects prior to the 2006-2009 seasons. Yet, Gonzalez’s errant control has aggravated decision-makers enough that the 24 year-old has been traded three times-twice by the White Sox.

Last season, Gonzalez was pummeled for a 5.75 ERA in 98.2 frames for the A’s. Or was he? While Gio’s control remained poor (5.11 BB/9), he struck out 9.94 batters per nine innings and posted an above-average 46.1 percent ground ball rate, leading to a 4.02 expected FIP (xFIP). Gonzalez’s decent work was obscured by a .369 BABIP and a near-14 percent home run per fly ball rate. Prior to 2010, I wondered if Gonzalez could trade some of those K’s for fewer free passes:

It’s difficult to say what kind of pitcher Gonzalez will become as he gains more experience in the big leagues. We can dream of a day when he’ll still be whiffing bunches of batters, without the walks flowing as freely as Gatorade in the dugouts.

Granted, pitchers almost never make gains in one area without sacrificing in another. For that walk rate to go down, Gonzalez is going to have to toss more pitches around the plate. That means more contact and fewer K’s. But the trade-off would certainly be beneficial. Easier said than done, though.

So far, Gonzalez has done just that. Last year, he located 44.6 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, with a 53 first pitch strike percentage (the MLB averages are 48-51% and 57-58%, respectively). In 2010, Gio has put 47.6 percent of his offerings over the plate, while getting strike one 56.2 percent of the time.

In ’09, Gonzalez threw his four-seam fastball for a strike at a league average 64 percent rate, while his upper-70’s breaking ball was thrown for strikes just 53.7 percent of the time (58% MLB average). In 2010, his four-seamer is getting strikes 66.8 percent and the curve is up to 57.4 percent. Those gains have lead to a decrease in his walk rate. No one will mistake Gonzalez for a marksman on the mound, but his 4.4 BB/9 figure is promising.

The extra strikes have led to an increase in contact rate (from 74.4% in ’09 to 78.2%), but that’s still below the 80-81% MLB average. Gonzalez’s swinging strike rate is down from 10.3% to 8.9%. Again, though, that’s better than the big league average, which is slightly above eight percent. Gio is still getting a good number of whiffs, with 8.48 K/9.

With better luck, a few more grounders (48.7 GB%) and improved control, Gonzalez has posted a 3.82 xFIP. And odds are, he’s still there for the taking: Gio is owned in just 12 percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s a volatile talent, but Gonzalez appears to be making the necessary strides to establish himself as a quality major league starter.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano wasn’t near as bad as his 2009 ERA (5.80) indicated, as he posted rates of 8.03 K/9, 4.28 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. He entered 2010 with plenty of hype, and those who invested in the 26 year-old southpaw are being rewarded handsomely. In 36 IP, Liriano has punched out a batter per inning, with 3.25 BB/9 and a 3.09 xFIP. His slider has been like a predator drone: per Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, that slide piece has been thrown for a strike 77 percent (62.8% MLB average), with an obscene 24.2 percent whiff rate (13% MLB average).

His fastball velocity has climbed from 91.7 MPH in ’09 to 93.6 MPH this year, and he’s generating ground balls at a 53.9 percent clip. That resurgent ground ball rate appears to be the result of a boatload of two seamers: according to Liriano’s Pitch F/X page, he’s throwing a two-seamer 47% of the time this season, compared to 12.1% in 2009 when his ground ball rate was 40.2%.

In terms of fooling batters, Liriano is in elite territory thus far. His 31.4 outside swing percentage is a career best and eclipses the 27% MLB average. His 74% contact rate is also well below the 80.7% MLB average. While Liriano struggled to get ahead in the count last year (55.3 first pitch strike%), he is getting first pitch strikes 64 percent of the time in 2010 (57.5% MLB average).

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Battling back, shoulder, groin and abdomen injuries in 2009, Hamilton turned in a middling .321 wOBA that fell well short of his .386 wOBA in 2007-2008. His ISO dipped to .158, and Hamilton hacked at 36.1 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Falling behind the pitcher often 65.3 first pitch strike percentage), Hamilton drew a walk in just 6.6 percent of his plate appearances.

While the soon-to-be-29 year-old was sidelined with a shoulder contusion during spring training, he has managed a healthy .368 wOBA in 2010. Hamilton’s pop has returned (.227 ISO), and he seems to have a better game plan at the plate. His O-Swing% is down to a league average 27 percent, and his first pitch strike percentage sits at 59.3. The lefty batter’s walk rate is a career-best 10.2 percent.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

Soriano was a train wreck in 2009. Bothered by a left knee injury that eventually shut him down in September and required surgery, the left fielder authored a .314 wOBA (the worst full-season mark of his career). Soriano’s elite power was merely good (.182 ISO), and his aching legs robbed him of his once-solid speed.

While the 34 year-old will collect inordinately large checks for years to come ($18M annually from 2010-2014), his bat has bounced back. Soriano has slugged to the tune of a .447 wOBA to this point, with a .350 ISO. Perhaps it’s a coincidence, but pitchers seem reluctant to toss him a strike: Soriano is seeing fewer pitches within the zone than usual (39% this year, compared to 46-48% in recent years). He’s obviously not going to continue at this pace, and his days as a SB threat are through. But Soriano’s ZiPS projection for the rest of the season (.275/.334/.513, .368 wOBA) is plenty useful.

Ben Sheets, Athletics

Sheets has been a shell of his former self in Oakland. Returning to the majors after missing the 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, the 31 year-old righty has 4.75 K/9 and BB/9 apiece, with a 5.65 xFIP in 30.1 innings.

The former Milwaukee Brewer previously sat 92-93 MPH with his fastball, but he’s down to 91.3 MPH this season. Sheets isn’t missing much lumber, and his trademark precision is conspicuously absent:

Here’s a comparison of Sheets’ fastball and curveball during his last healthy season (2008) and 2010, courtesy of Somers’ Pitch F/X data:

The tally for Oakland’s $10 million investment so far? -0.3 Wins Above Replacement.

Carlos Lee, Astros

How bad has Houston’s “offense” been? The Astros rank dead last in wOBA at .271, nearly 20 points worse than the 29th-ranked Mariners (.290 wOBA). The ‘Stros are the worst club in drawing walks (5.3 BB%) and hitting for power (.088 ISO).

The most egregious offender, save for Kazuo Matsui, is Carlos Lee. El Caballo has limped to a ghastly .212 wOBA during his first 98 plate appearances. Lee has yet to go yard, has a .054 ISO and has expanded his zone with a 32.1 outside swing percentage. Odds are, Lee isn’t toast. But he is 33 years old and saw his ISO drip from the .220-.255 range from 2004-2008 to .189 in 2009. ZiPS projects a good, not great .357 wOBA for the rest of the season, with a .194 ISO.

Julio Borbon, Rangers

Texas’ supplemental first-rounder in the 2007 draft generated fantasy buzz due his wheels, but his lackluster plate discipline served as a drawback. So far, it looks like Borbon spent the winter watching Corey Patterson instructional videos.

Borbon has drawn ball four just once in 80 plate appearances (1.3%), while jumping at 41.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. That’s leading to plenty of pitchers counts, as Borbon’s first pitch strike percentage is 63.8. The 24 year-old has been unlucky on balls put in play (.238 BABIP), but his approach has been abysmal. Recently, the Rangers have been working in Craig Gentry (another speed player with limited secondary skills) in center field. Borbon has blazing speed and is a quality defender, but he’s a mess at the dish right now.

Heading into 2010, Seattle Mariners starter Doug Fister was a relative unknown outside of (and perhaps even in) the Pacific Northwest. The 6-foot-8 beanpole did a decent job in his big league debut last season, posting a 4.50 xFIP with 5.31 K/9 and 2.21 BB in 61 innings. But Fister never cracked Baseball America’s list of Seattle’s top 30 prospects, and neither CHONE (4.86 FIP) nor ZiPS (5.08 FIP) expected much out of the 26 year-old this season.

Yet, following a start last night against the Texas Rangers in which he tossed eight shutout innings, Fister now holds a 1.29 ERA in 35 total frames. Fantasy owners haven’t joined the Fister fan club, however, as the 7th round pick in the 2006 draft is owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues and 6.3 percent of ESPN leagues. It appears that many players are justifiably skeptical of Fister’s fast start.

First, the good. Fister has issued just 1.29 BB/9, while locating 53.5 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (the MLB average is 48.2 percent in 2010). That has contributed to an above-average 60 percent rate of first pitch strikes (57.5% MLB average). The righty displayed sharp control throughout his minor league tenure as well, with 2.2 BB/9 overall and just 0.9 BB/9 at Triple-A Tacoma in 2009. A slight groundball pitcher in the minors (47.2 GB%, according to Minor League Splits), Fister has a 51.9 GB% so far this year.

The Bad? Fister isn’t fooling anyone. Utilizing an 88-89 MPH fastball over three-quarters of the time, he has punched out just 4.11 batters per nine innings. His 89.7 percent contact rate is well north of the 80.7 percent MLB average, and Fister’s 4.1 percent swinging strike rate is less than half of the 8.3 percent big league average.

And, as you probably guessed by that ERA, he’s been incredibly lucky. Fister has a .218 BABIP, without surrendering a home run. His rate of stranding runners on base (82.8 percent) will also regress in the months to come. Overall, Fister’s expected FIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.97.

Fister does boast very good control, and he’s backed by strong defenders: after leading the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating in 2009, the Mariners rank 5th in 2010. But even so, Fister looks more like a league average starting pitcher than some breakout star. ZiPS projects 4.81 K/9, 2.37 BB/9 and a 4.62 FIP for the rest of the season.

I would say don’t get fooled by the shiny ERA. But, judging from those ownership rates, most fantasy players already know better.

Joe Mauer owners received some bad news on Sunday, as Minnesota Twins manager Rod Gardenhire said that Mauer (bruised left heel) may be week-to-week as opposed to day-to-day. With Mauer ailing, the Twins summoned prospect Wilson Ramos from Triple-A Rochester.

Ramos, 22, signed out of Venezuela in 2004 and ranked as the second-best talent in the Minnesota system (per Baseball America and Marc Hulet) entering the season. BA also named Ramos as its Winter Player of the Year after he mashed as a member of the Tigres de Aragua.

The 6-0, 220 pound righty batter has a career .288/.336/.441 line in the minors, including a .317/.341/.454 triple-slash during a 2009 season spent mostly at Double-A. Ramos is very aggressive at the dish (career six percent walk rate), but he makes a good deal of contact and has some pop, as his 18.1 percent K rate and .153 ISO attest.

While Ramos seems capable of becoming a quality starting catcher in the majors one day, he has struggled to stay healthy: he broke the tip of his left middle finger and injured his hamstring last year, missing nearly three months total. Also, Ramos doesn’t have much experience in the upper levels of the minors. He took 214 trips to the plate at Double-A last year and was off to a slow start at Triple-A this season (.179/.214/.328 in 70 PA, with three walks and 15 punch outs). CHONE projected a .263/.303/.394 line prior to 2010, and ZiPS had a .256/.297/.369 forecast. Four-for-five start aside, Ramos might not hit the ground running.

Here are some other backstops with relatively low ownership rates who may be available in your league:

Mike Napoli, Angels (owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues)

Some fantasy players abandoned Napoli due to his anemic showing so far (.184/.298/.265, .271 wOBA). However, Jeff Mathis (fractured right wrist) is on the shelf and Bobby Wilson (concussion, ankle) got hit by a freight train named Teixeira. ZiPS projects a .356 rest-of-the-season wOBA for Napoli.

Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks (23%)

With Miguel Montero (left knee surgery) out, Snyder is getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the D-Backs. Snyder suffered a back injury and had some lousy luck on balls put in play in 2009 (.237 BABIP). In 2010, however, he’s off to a .262/.357/.508 (.373 wOBA) start. He is projected to post a .352 wOBA for the rest of the season.

Nick Hundley, Padres (6%)

Hundley has received 16 starts to Yorvit Torrealba’s nine thus far, and he’s slashing .273/.365/.418 (.344 wOBA). Hundley won’t continue to boast a .350+ BABIP, so expect that average to drop. Even so, he hit a decent .238/.313/.406 in ’09 and possesses solid secondary skills for a catcher (career 8.3 BB% and a .147 ISO). ZiPS isn’t all that optimistic, though, with a .300 wOBA projected from here on out.

Which starting pitchers with shiny April ERAs pitched over their heads, and which guys with macabre surface stats got some bad bounces? To find out, let’s look at the starters with the biggest difference between ERA and expected FIP (xFIP) during the first month of the 2010 season (minimum 20 innings pitched).

First, the 10 starters whose peripherals suggest that their microscopic ERAs will climb:

Note the extremely low homer and BABIP figures, as well as the sky high strand rates. With the exception of Livan and Talbot, these guys have actually pitched pretty well thus far. It’s just that they won’t continue to compile Bob Gibson circa 1968 ERAs.

St. Louis’ Garcia, owned in just 43 percent of Yahoo leagues, is burning worms and has a history of whiffing hitters in the minors. Health and stamina remain issues for the Tommy John survivor, but he’s legit. Liriano has started off strong as well. Pelfrey (whose one relief outing isn’t included here) has pitched decently, but it’s hard to say that he has “broken out.”

Now, here are the 10 starters with ERAs far higher than their peripheral stats would suggest:

Pretty much the opposite of the previous list: very high home run and BABIP numbers, and low strand rates. Porcello’s start really hasn’t been that bad, as his strikeout and walk rates have both improved compared to his rookie season, and he has maintained his strong groundball rate to boot. It’s pretty hard to notice, though, when hits are falling in 41.5 percent of the time that balls are put in play.

Harang, Beckett, Floyd and Jackson are also good targets. They haven’t been great, but perhaps you can acquire them on the cheap from a fed up owner. Here are their rest-of-season ZiPS projections:

Harang: 4.12 FIP
Beckett: 3.37 FIP
Floyd: 4.54 FIP
Jackson: 4.25 FIP