• With Shawn Tolleson unavailable this afternoon, Sam Dyson picked up the save with a clean ninth inning. If it wasn’t clear enough, this solidifies Dyson has the second in line behind Tolleson, which could be important as the latter has not been at his sharpest so far in 2016. Tolleson’s 5.40 ERA and 6/4 shutdown/meltdown ratio are ugly, but the 3.67 xFIP isn’t all bad. His fastball velocity is right where it’s been in the past, but the swinging strike rate is down a few ticks, which is also noticeable in the strikeout rate. While Dyson’s raw stats (2.25 ERA) have been better, his 3.62 xFIP is almost identical to Tolleson’s. Dyson has also had the same pattern of similar velocity but somewhat suppressed stuff in the early going. Tolleson should be back on the bump for the next Texas save opp, but speculators (or Tolleson owners looking for a handcuff) should hold onto Dyson, as it’s not quite a green light situation. However, this doesn’t seem like one of those setups where a pitcher head and shoulders better than the incumbent is waiting in the wings, so don’t go out of your way to fret too much about pen turnover here.

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Somewhat quiet night on the bullpen front tonight…

• Luke Gregerson certainly did not look great tonight, coughing up three runs in a tie game and talking the loss. With the outing, the righty’s xFIP climbed to a palatable, but less exciting 3.16 on the young season. While the Astros’ closer hasn’t really hasn’t been striking too many guys out (20% K%), he has been inducing ground balls at a Zach Britton-like rate (71%) which is one of the reasons both xFIP and SIERA seem happy with him in the ninth inning. His closest competition likely remains Ken Giles, who didn’t have a great outing himself today. While most folks have jumped ship on Giles and his 9.26 ERA, it’s worth noting that he’s off to a pretty unlucky start, with a .382 BABIP and a 61% strand rate. His fastball velocity is right where it was last year, and it’s not like he’s walking a ton of guys. Unfortunately, he seems to be pretty far away from save opps right now, but I’d hold in deeper leagues — the rates should be back soon enough.

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• Well, it finally happened — Jeanmar Gomez finally blew a save. It wasn’t pretty either, as the righty was touched up for two runs on three hits and a pair of walks. The outing was ugly enough to bring his (SSS) xFIP from 3.27 to 3.81, which is actually not too far off last year’s 3.98 mark. We’ve mentioned here a couple times that Gomez is probably just good enough to hold onto the gig when things are going well, but he doesn’t have enough swing-and-miss stuff to avoid bad stretches where guys are making solid contact and putting the ball in play. He has been used a lot lately (8 times in the Phillies last 12 games), so maybe a day or two off will do him good. I expect he’ll get the next save opportunity, but we’ve kept him yellow even through the “good times” for a reason. I’ll slide Hector Neris (2.05 xFIP, 43% K%) ahead of David Hernandez (2.26 xFIP, 39% K%) based on his save a couple games ago (when Gomez was getting a day off). However, it wouldn’t be shocking if either of them (or even Andrew Bailey) saw run in the ninth inning for Philly at some point going forward.

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• Jeanmar Gomez continues to hold down the fort in Philadelphia. The righty polished off Jeremy Hellickson’s gem tonight, tossing a 1-2-3 ninth inning (with a strikeout) for his sixth save of the season. While his 2.08 ERA is certainly better than his peripherals would indicate, he legitimately has pitched well to open 2016. His (admittedly tiny sample) SwStr% is a career high (10%) as is his 15% K%-BB%. No one is pretending that Gomez is suddenly an elite stopper, but (assuming he can continue to post a low-3.00s FIP) he probably needs to be vaulted out of the “least stable” tier. He’s probably sitting somewhere between 20th and 25th of MLB closers I’d buy right now — plenty desirable in a 12-team mixed league as a 2nd or 3rd closer option, especially since the Phillies don’t look as totally, ridiculously, hopelessly lost as projected.

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• Yeah, Pete Mackanin won’t say it, but Jeanmar Gomez seems to have the Phillies gig until further notice. Pitching for the third time in four days, the 28-year-old tossed a scoreless ninth for his third consecutive save. He’s not whiffing a ton of guys (2 strikeouts over 14 batters faced), but two-thirds of the balls put in play against him this season have been on the ground. I wouldn’t expect the worm-burning ways to continue since Gomez has hovered around 50% GB% the last few years, but if he can minimize the walks (5% last season) he can be a passable reliever (3.79 SIERA last season) who won’t kill your rates. He should be owned if you need saves (and my guess is he’s gone in almost all deeper leagues by now), but he has the skillset that opens itself up to BABIP luck, so be forewarned. It’s tough to see him holding the gig without hiccups all season, so don’t invest heavily on the trade market. Of note, David Hernandez tossed a scoreless eighth and has looked competent since his April 4th blowup against the Reds. He should be snagged in very deep mixed or NL-onlies where save speculation is all the rage.

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Limited slate of games today, but not necessarily a limited slate of news…

• Round and round the closer wheel goes in Philadelphia. David Hernandez? You blew it. Dalier Hinojosa? Eh, not endearing yourself to the eastern half of the Keystone State. Next up? Well, sounds like Pete Mackanin may be turning his current affections to Jeanmar Gomez. The former mediocre Cleveland starter transitioned has been a full-time reliever for two years now, posting 4.16 and 3.79 SIERAs in 2014 and 2015. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff (8% SwStr%, even in relief) and while he isn’t wild, his command isn’t exactly stellar, either (8.5% BB%). Moreover, his already mediocre fastball was actually down a couple ticks in his only outing this season. If you are in a league where saves are hoarded so much that they should have their own reality show, there’s probably no harm in picking up Gomez. However, in standard leagues, I’m staying far, far, away from the dumpster fire that is the Phillies bullpen. There just isn’t enough upside to warrant the risk.

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Guess what’s back. Back again. OK, so we probably aren’t quite nightly yet (although we should hit the wire a handful more times before opening day). And the closer grid may need some tweaking as final roster cuts get made. This is our spring training. But, hey, at least there’s something to read at midnight again.

First goal is to get a semi-functional grid out tonight. Don’t worry, iterations to come. As for some notes and notes…

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Spent a little longer than usually updating the grid this evening, so hopefully most of the small issues that have crept up with it over the last week or two are mostly resolved. Also, while we here at the Bullpen Report are usually concerned with SP-eligible relievers who can help boost rates, check out David Wiers’ piece on potential RP-eligible starters down the stretch if you need to fill innings quotas for the rest of the season.

– Greg Holland pitched for a second consecutive day today. It was a non-save situation, and the righty retired the side on 7 pitches. The bad news? His velocity has not looked good, sitting at the lowest mark it has all year (it’s been an already down year). His strikeout and walk rates have been reasonably stable over the last few months (relative to early in the year) but his HardHit% has jumped to 39% since the all-star break (compared to just 19% before and 20% last year). It doesn’t seem that illogical to point out that his HR/FB% has been on the rise and IFFB% (a measure of weak contact) has been trending downward. Ned Yost has apparently conceded that Holland’s velocity “may not return,” an ominous side for the once dominant righty going forward. It is unclear whether the team is teetering on the edge of a change, and with Wade Davis gone in almost all leagues, there’s not a lot of speculating to be done here. We’re just kind of in wait and see mode, but I’m certainly not buying shares of Holland for less more than pennies on the dollar for the remainder of the year.

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– Fernando Rodney is going to be shooting arrows a couple time zones over. With Jason Motte hitting the DL, the Cubbies procured themselves another deposed “proven closer(TM)” by acquiring Rodney for a player to be named later. For those thinking “hot lead on new closer candidate!” you can probably stop. The righty’s 5.68 ERA is only slightly uglier than his 4.63 xFIP and the 38-year-old’s plunging K% may be signifying the beginning of the end. The velocity is only off a touch, but Captain Crooked Hat’s Zone% is down and his Contact% is up. Not only are batters making more contact but Rodney is struggling to keep his stuff in the zone. If you are super desperate in holds leagues, you could try Rodney, I guess (although if the league was that deep, he probably wasn’t available to begin with), but I’m expecting small enough things he doesn’t crack the grid.

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– Even though his neck is supposedly fine, Glen Perkins was unavailable this evening due to lower back issues. Kevin Jepsen notched save number 8 in his absence, lowering his ERA to 2.48 in the process. While it sounds like Perkins thinks he’ll be A-OK going forward, Jepsen remains a necessary handcuff giving the former’s maladies. A word of caution, however; Jepsen is living on a .233 BABIP even though his HardHit% is 28%. Regression is in there somewhere, as evidenced by his nearly-4.00 SIERA. Hold onto him if you need saves, but if you think he’s going to help you in ERA and WHIP, I’d turn to a more elite middle reliever somewhere else.

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