Yesterday, Mike Podhorzer shared part one of this epic journey and teased that today we would be incorporating batted ball angle to see if that helps our model. I am, in fact, going to do that today.
But first, I am going to take a quick step back and let you know my reasons for doing this. Next, I’ll introduce some data on batted ball angle, as noted above.
We often talk about ottoneu as if it were a single game and experience, but in reality it is three very different games, depending on which scoring system you choose. As with any fantasy format, you have different values on different players based on the stats you choose, but even the ways you reflect those stats can have a huge impact on the way the game is played and the way auctions proceed.
For those of you who are thinking about starting an ottoneu league (or another ottoneu league), I wanted to take a look at the three different formats and what you should expect in terms of game play and player valuation for each.
Over the next three weeks, I am putting together three articles to help both existing and new ottoneu players (including one for those still thinking about ottoneu). Next week we’ll look at how the three scoring systems offered by ottoneu compare, and the week after I’ll offer some guidance for those venturing into their first ottoneu experience. In the midst of all that, expect to see a detailed breakdown of how I create projected auction values for my ottoneu leagues.
But this week, with just nine days until rosters freeze, I am going to focus on those of you in your second or third year in ottoneu, or those of you taking over abandoned teams. In many ways, the next nine days are some of the most important to your season – moves you make now can put you on the path to a title or start a downward spiral.
The FanGraphs Experts League has been a relatively slow moving league with regards to trades. I am told this is fairly common in experts leagues (my dubious standing as an expert makes it difficult for me to validate this on my own).
But in the last week, we have had a veritable flurry of trade activity, with not one, not two, but THREE TRADES going down in a 48 hour period.They are intriguing trades on their own, but also have some good lessons that I think can help all ottoneu players make final moves before the January 31 roster deadlines.
Prior to each baseball season, usually in January or February, I put together a massive spreadsheet that rates players in every format I play in. Placing a value on a given player is actually not that hard, assuming you have a decent projection of what that player will do over the course of the next season. Valuing “Albert Pujols” may not always be easy, but if I tell you I have a 1B who will put up 31 HR with a .285/.359/.516 line, that is something you can probably work with.
The issue is that depending on what system you pick, you could end up with some very different values.
One of the joys of living on the West coast is that when my articles go up at 8:15 a.m. ET, I often have a few comments in reply before I even wake up. Somehow, I don’t think that will be the case today.
But once you do rise from the late-night-party-induced stupor that infects everyone on January first, you’ll be only weeks from the ottoneu keeper deadline and it will be time to think long and hard about what you did right in 2012, what you did wrong, and what you can do better. Here are my ottoneu Year’s Resolutions (otto-New Year’s Resolutions may be grammatically correct, I am not sure), which will hopefully include a few nuggets of wisdom that you can use, as well.
After weeks of reviewing hitters, position by position by position, it is time for me to offer up my response to Zach Sanders’s rankings of starting pitchers.
As with Zach’s rankings, we are limiting ourselves to pitchers with more than 140 IP this year, giving us a list of 101 starting pitchers, including a few whose values varied greatly between 5×5 and linear weights points leagues. One slight change from hitters to pitchers – because an IP is so valuable in linear weights (almost every team should be using up all 1500 IP over the season in an ottoneu league), we are going to rank pitchers based on Points/IP, not based on total points.
We’ve already seen the new Bill James projections for 2013 used to rank hitters for 5×5 and linear weights, and to rank pitchers for 5×5 – time to look at how ottoneu players should be thinking about pitchers for 2013.
As with hitters, we are going to look at three sets of data, but unlike hitters, I am going to add a bonus set at the end (isn’t that nice of me).
Last week, we received our first set of 2013 projections, and Jeff Zimmerman presented 5×5 rankings based on three cuts of that data.
By now, many of you have probably noticed a pattern forming this off-season – 5×5 rankings come out, and Chad follows with the ottoneu edition. Sure enough, here three cuts of linear weights points rankings of the top 20 hitters for 2013, based on the Bill James Handbook Projections.
After a brief Holiday respite, Zach Sanders continued his end-of-season positional rankings by posting his OF rankings on Monday. With far more players than at any other position (103 players qualified for the OF rankings) the differences between where a player falls in 5×5 vs. linear weights can be more drastic.
In fact, instead of talking a few spots here or there, there were six players who “fell” at least 20 spots when we shifted to linear weights, and six who “rose” at least 20. We’ll see a couple old friends on this list and once again OBP and SB go a long way towards explaining the differences.