As those of you who follow me on Twitter may have seen, I spend some time digging into the ottoneu data the last week or so, looking at which players are on the most winning teams. Basically, I was figuring out what percentage of teams a player was on were in each standings spot. This gave me all sorts of wonderful insights, including that 25% of Dioner Navarro owners are in 4th place or that Jake Marisnick is equally likely to be in 12th place as 3rd place.

But it also provided an interesting look into what players (and what kinds of players) are driving success.

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As a Seattle resident, I have the pleasure of attending a good number of Mariner’s games each year, mostly in the company of another founding member of ottoneu (owner of this team). A couple weeks back, we attended a game and marveled at the massive swings being taken by one Raul Ibanez, which led to one of us commenting, “It’s like he’s decided, ‘Screw it – I’m old and I am going to try to crush the ball, even if I can’t do anything else.”

It reminded me of the Jerry Seinfeld quip about old people backing out of their driveways: “I’m old and I’m coming back! I survived, let’s see if you can.”

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A couple months ago, I shared a piece that explained how I pro-rate standings in ottoneu leagues to figure out where I ACTUALLY stand and what I should be doing moving forward. Now that we are at the half-way mark, I wanted to revisit that piece, make a couple adjustments to my process, and update my plans.

If you haven’t read that piece, you can start with that and take a look at how I look at all stats on a per-game and per inning basis in roto leagues and the score I use in points leagues to see a more realistic look at what each team is doing.

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The combination of 40-man rosters and per-position game limits creates an interesting conundrum for owners on days with limited games played. Even when there are a more typical 12 games on a Monday or Thursday, rather than the four that were played last night, filling out a lineup can be difficult.

In most leagues, you either have a rather limited bench, leaving you with few choices to fill in for starters on off days, or you have no limits on games played (in head-to-head leagues, for example) allowing you to play anyone you can. But ottoneu forces you to think – do I really want to play my 8th OF and my 5th MI today? Just because they are on my roster, does that make them a good play?

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Prior to the start of the season, I pursued a handful of players who I thought were due for big seasons. Some of these players – Brandon Moss, Julio Teheran, Chris Tillman among them – served me quite well. But some others – Jason Heyward, Danny Espinosa, Shane Victorino are all in this group – have had less success.

Three of these players, however, have suffered so badly that their teams sent them back for more seasoning in the minors. I expected Ike Davis, Dustin Ackley and Lonnie Chisenhall to play key roles on teams for me, and all have been major disappointments. But the season isn’t even half over, and in ottoneu we are always looking towards the future, so is there value to be had here?

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As we near the mid-point of the season, I find myself happily in the mix in all of my ottoneu leagues, including a surprising 4th (I think surprising) in the FanGraphs Experts League. I’m in the top half of the league in six categories (R, SB, W, S, ERA, WHIP) and close in another (RBI), but I am absolutely bottoming out in K, HR, and AVG (10th in each).

My path to improvement is pretty clear – add pop, average, or strike outs. And I have some decent trade options, as well, as I am running away with SB (first place with 88, second has 61), and have a deep enough OF to sustain a loss there.

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Among a slew of pitchers, there are three catchers whose names appear on the list of most auctioned players in the ottoneu world: Jason Castro, Chris Iannetta and Yan Gomes.

Catcher has been a bit of an odd position this year, with pre-season favorites like Salvador Perez and Miguel Montero struggling; unexpected contributions from the likes of Josh Donaldson and Evan Gattis; and the early season suspensions to Yasmani Grandal and Carlos Ruiz. It’s no surprise that so many owners are trying to get this position figured out.

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Between Friday and Sunday in Boston, the Indians and Red Sox spurred a bunch of ottoneu auctions, but the ring leaders are two pitchers who, beyond their presence atop the auction list, have very little in common.

John Lackey is a starter in his 12th season (although he has only pitched in 11 of them after missing 2012; Cody Allen has only 52.1 career innings as a potential-back-of-the-bullpen arm in Cleveland. But both provide good reasons for ottoneu owners to bid on them.

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One of the most popular questions I get on Twitter is something along the lines of “Was just offered player X for player Y. Should I take it?” And I always do my best to answer, but the reality is analyzing a trade without a ton of context is really tough.

Where are you in the standings? Are you building for this year or next? Who else is on your roster? Are there other offers out there? Without answers to these questions, and quite a few others, any answer I give requires an asterisk: warning – trade advice woefully short of information. But, like I said, I still try to answer, so I thought I would provide some color on how I analyze ottoneu trades when presented without context.

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Last week, I sent out a tweet (Follow me! @chadyoung) asking readers & ottoneu enthusiasts what they wanted to see in this space this week. Amidst a handful of “should I trade this guy for that guy” responses, came this:

‏@ChikeErokwu: How/when do you know you’re a contender for the year? Is there a point/date benchmark? I’d like to see a story about that.

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