A couple months ago, I told you it was too early to worry about Justin Masterson. Well, we are more than half-way through June now and if I wasn’t worried before, I am now.
Dropping velocity, a lot of walks, and some bad batted ball luck were major factors in Masterson’s slow start, and all three continue to be an issue. But the walks are the real cause for concern.
Trade season has begun for those of us in ottoneu leagues. In the last couple weeks, the following names have been sold in my ottoneu leagues: Robinson Cano, Clayton Kershaw, Yasiel Puig, and Craig Kimbrel, among others. Justin Upton, Madison Bumgarner, and others have been put on the block.
My guess is that your leagues are seeing the same thing and that means that it’s time to make a call – do I fight for first or is it time to sell? The first place to look is at the standings, but – particularly in ottoneu points leagues – that is not the only place to look.
I will start by saying, unlike my last post on Ike Davis, this is not going to cover a player I am typically a fan of. I’ve never been a Chase Headley owner, in any league. But part of what has had me staying away from Headley is the belief by some of my league mates that he is a near-MVP candidate.
That 2012 season looms large in many people’s minds, but the reality is, Headley was never truly a 30-HR hitter, particularly in that park. Now, however, I am seeing signs that a rough start to 2014 are starting to break some of the Headley-lovers out there, and that may mean there is an opportunity.
Anyone who regularly reads my work knows that Ike Davis has been a favorite of mine for years. More often than not, that love has proven to be misguided, leading me to spend money on a player who has not provided nearly the value I hoped for.
Davis got off to a rocky start this year, largely due to a messy playing time situation with a Mets team that was clearly ready to move on. But since being traded to Pittsburgh, Davis has put up a valuable, although somewhat unexpected, month of baseball.
For the past few years, we’ve grown accustomed to a steady diet of high on-base, high-average, moderate power output from Billy Butler. In the early going, 2014 hasn’t been nearly as tasty.
Terrible breakfast puns aside, Butler’s numbers are down across the board, and anyone lining him up in a util slot has got to be concerned. So is Butler a buy low or a guy you should be trying to get rid of?
In my FanGraphs+ write up of Michael Brantley, I wrote, “Michael Brantley out-earned Bryce Harper this year. That is probably the last time I’ll be able to type that sentence, but it does give you a sense of how much value Brantley created compared to his cost.”
Brantley broke double digit home runs for the first time in 2013 and set a new career high in stolen bases, as well. He put up solid R and RBI numbers (more combined than Harper, for example) and his .284 average was enough to help any fantasy team. And 2014 is shaping up to be even better.
In an industry league I joined this off-season, I inherited a team with Jean Segura as my starting SS and biggest trade chip. Having never been a Segura fan, I started shopping the Brewer speedster, and found myself relatively flush with offers. In a 20 team league, I think at least eight owners inquired, and deals were pretty solid.
This week, I finally traded Segura, and the return was not what it would have been three or four months ago. So what happened?
If you happen to be a FG+ subscriber, and you happen to have visited Justin Masterson’s page, and you happen to have read his 2014 FanGraphs+ Profile, you saw these lines: “Fantasy owners will look at his 2010-11-12-13 roller coaster and be nervous. I’ll be buying at the discounted price and laughing all the way to the fantasy-value bank.”
As the author of those lines, I feel it is my responsibility to address what has been an all-around putrid start to the season from the supposed ace of a playoff-contending staff. Besides, I own Masterson across multiple leagues and my own nerves would probably benefit from some analysis.
A few weeks back, I talked a bit about holding or targeting players with season long injuries in ottoneu leagues. The idea in that piece was to treat injured players like Prospects – you can’t be sure when they will be back, nor can you be confident in how they will perform.
When players are underpriced (say you have a $1 Patrick Corbin), you might as well hold them (or target them in trades). But when prices rise to more typical levels (say a $10 Corbin), there may be a different path forward, particularly for pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery.
If it feels like you have spent every moment of Spring Training 2014 hoping that the next article you read is not about a pitcher you own (or one who plays for your favorite MLB team), you are not alone. The Braves have been hard hit, but they are not the only ones, and the latest pitcher to go down hit close to home for me.
Patrick Corbin has been a personal favorite for about a year now. It was just over two months ago that I implored you all to buy on Corbin and since I only give advice that I intend to take myself, the Diamondback hurler has found his way onto the majority of my teams. This seemed like a great thing until the last 24 hours or so, and suddenly I am left trying to figure out what to do with him.
