After crediting myself with 4, 5 and 5 correct bold predictions over the last three years, this years predictions are proving a bit too bold. We’re only half way through the year, and I can pretty easily write off almost all of my bold predictions. It’s not a good place to be.
It’s the holy grail for any team competing for a fantasy title, maybe even more so in a 5×5 league – the opportunity to add Mike Trout mid-season (assuming, you know, that you did not have him PRE-season).
In the FanGraphs Experts ottoneu league, I am in the midst of negotiating for just that opportunity. My team in this 5×5 league currently sits in 6th* place, but only 6.5 out of 3rd and with some upside. For example, the team in first is currently tops in strike outs – but has also thrown 110 more innings than any other team. He’ll be dropping in K, W, and Saves as other teams catch up once he hits the IP limit. So I want to make a run, and how better to do that than with Trout.
*All stats as of Saturday, so they may be out of date by the time you read this.
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A few days back, David Appelman announced the addition of Hard Hit, Medium Hit and Soft Hit data to the batted ball stats on FanGraphs. Since then, I have been playing around with them, and found some interesting things.
But I had no idea what to make of those things. If a guy has an extremely high Hard Hit%, what does that mean? Should we expect regression? Should we expect it to continue? And what does that mean for fantasy value?
In the FanGraphs Experts ottoneu League, I nearly traded Julio Teheran this off-season. I shopped him hard, targeting OF help. But holding him on a cheap contract was just too attractive – he’s 24 years old and coming off two straight excellent fantasy seasons.
But 2015 is not off to a good start. I was smart enough to bench him on Tuesday night, but after allowing 7 R (3 ER) over 5.1, his numbers on the year are not pretty. 27 IP, only 22 K, 12 BB, 6 HR. His 4.67 ERA is bad; his 6.07 FIP is worse. So what gives?
This marks the fourth year of the Second FanGraphs Staff ottoneu league, and we are setting up for a highly competitive year. Before each season, I set up projected standings to help me understand where my team stands and what I need to do to improve.
This year, based on the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections, my team has its work cut out for it, sitting within striking distance of first, but chasing two teams.
As if finding ten things to predict boldly weren’t challenging enough, I added one more layer this year. All my Bold Predictions will be about players whose first name starts with B or last name starts with P. In fact, we are going one step further – all the B names are Brandon.
Why, you ask? Why not, I answer.
As many of you in the ottoneu world know, the format which has been playable on FanGraphs for the past five years got its start with a single league. Originated by three high school friends and bringing in six of our college friends (yes, our first year had nine teams). Well, 2015 is our tenth year playing ottoneu and I recently discovered a treasure trove of emails from before, during and after that first season.
One of these emails included a spreadsheet of rosters from the last day of our first season. With everyone busy with auctions right now, I thought it might be fun to glance back at what the league looked like in year one.
This past week, in the ottoneu Slack Community, (check this out if you are interested in joining, which you should be if you play ottoneu) there was a heated debate about paying for top RP, particularly in points leagues. One side was arguing that the elite RP put up a Pt/IP score that few other players can manage. That if you are willing to pay $35 more for Mike Trout than Ryan Braun (projected to have a 200 point gap between them), why not pay the same premium for Aroldis Chapman over a guy 200 points below him – Santiago Casilla?
The other side argued that spending $30+ on a relief pitcher would be crazy – there are always solid RP options on the wire, so why not just wait and see who will be the next Wade Davis?
Both sides are right.
After two straight first place finishes, I landed in second in the FanGraphs Staff League last year, and went into the off-season dead-set on regaining my crown.
I made a few trades, made my cuts and sat down to look at the available free agents…and was stopped in my tracks. I really had no good options.
With the cut deadline behind us, now is the time to start prepping for your auctions. One thing to do is identify your targets, but another is to suss out the competition. Who has cash to spend? How much? Who is building a new roster and who is filling just a couple holes?
I started by taking a broad look at my three leagues to see how much cash was kept and I was intrigued to see how different the three auctions are set to play out.