This post won’t be long. And it has more questions than answers. But it’s the most immediately relevant thing I have ever written (at least to me). What do you do in auction where you have a choice between getting a star or building a balanced team and you can’t realistically do both?
Today, Ottoneu launched the 2023 edition of the Ottoneu Prestige League (OPL), a best-ball, overall competition open only to teams that finished top-six in their league in 2022. It has become one of my favorite aspects of Ottoneu, with unique rules that create a nice challenge for balancing competing in your “home league” and fighting through to the playoffs in OPL.
If you have an eligible team, I recommend joining, but I’m not here to convince you to join (you should join). I am here to complain about trade-offs.
Last week, after powering through two live auctions and starting a slow one, I wrote about the differences between the two approaches to auctions, focusing on how they are structurally different. I also promised to come back with more about strategy in both formats. And here I am!
It’s Ottoneu auction season, and while most auctions won’t happen for a few weeks, there are plenty of leagues auctioning right now. I have already finished one auction and I am in the middle of a second as I sit here writing. How am I writing while mid-auction? Am I the world’s best multi-tasker?
No. I am in the middle of a slow auction. And this has me thinking about something that is important in Ottoneu but not specific to Ottoneu: the differences between slow and fast auctions.
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Last night was the auction for the FanGraphs Staff League, going into year 13 and still going strong. My recap will focus on how things went for me and my co-manager, Niv Shah, who built and runs Ottoneu. The goal is to share a lesson you can learn from us so you don’t the mistake we did. But if you want to see the full draft, you can! Eli Ben-Porat streamed the auction, so you can see how this played out live.
Transcript is now available
| 2:59 |
: Hi all – going to get this started in just a moment. This chat, for those who missed my update last week, is part of our expanded Ottoneu coverage. I don’t know yet how regular they will be, but there has been demand for chats, so we’ll keep doing them semi-regularly. |
| 3:00 |
: Happy to answer any Ottoneu questions, but I also cover keeper leagues in general on the Keep or Kut podcast, so I am open to any questions. Just know that whatever you are doing in your other keeper leagues, Ottoneu is better! |
| 3:01 |
: For any questions, when possible let me know the basics of league format. For Ottoneu, that just means scoring type, but any info you give me can help me give you a better answer. |
| 3:01 |
: Also, I am new to this chat thing, so if I mess things up…uh…sorry. I’ll do my best. Let’s go! |
| 3:02 |
: Which do you like less: $10 Nimmo, $8 Renfroe, $9 Happ, $3 Kwan? |
| 3:03 |
: I have Nimmo a good deal above the rest of those guys and given the price, I like Kwan a good deal more than the other two. Renfroe vs. Happ is pretty close to a tossup for me, so I’ll take the extra dollar saved and say Happ is my least favorite. But I like them all and wouldn’t be looking to cut any of them. |
This list is a little different than the others. First, RP in FanGraphs Points leagues, where saves and holds have value but are not a category, function fairly differently than in more traditional formats. You don’t need a closer, but having a middle reliever who never gets late-inning work isn’t ideal either. Role matters but it isn’t as simple as “go get the closers to pile up saves.” Second, I value RP differently than the market or any auction calculator. So we are going need a slightly longer intro before I just drop a table on you.
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When doing my rankings by position, I have to make decisions on who makes the cut to be ranked and who doesn’t. Based on projections, current roster percentages and other data, some players get ranked and others get left out. Before the cut deadline tonight, I wanted to provide an update on a set of players who missed that cut but maybe should not have. Six of these players are utility-only, and therefore didn’t go on positional rankings. Others just weren’t on my radar, so to speak.
The SP list is always the hardest to make. I am less confident in the projections for pitchers than for hitters, which means there is a lot more judgment required to make decisions. I also tend to be pretty adverse to paying market price for pitching. I tend to believe there will be pitching available via free-agent pickups. Plus, if you fall behind the innings-pitched pace because you aren’t comfortable with what you have, it is relatively easy to make up ground later in the year. So if I am not likely to pay market price for an ace, what should I recommend you do? In the end, I always decide to set tiers based on what I think is a fair price, even if I know that I will be value-shopping at the position. Read the rest of this entry »
OF is shallow and deep at the same time. There are very few elite OF I truly trust and get excited about – by the bottom of the OF2 level (back half of the top 20), I am looking at guys I like as an OF, but not more. But as you move down outside the top 60, there are still a bunch of guys I like as OF4/OF5 types. Strategically, that means I am going to often try to grab two of the top 20 and then just see who falls to me later.
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