They say necessity is the mother of invention. And they are right. But you know what else is the mother of invention? People saying seemingly weird things and then stopping and thinking, “Wait, maybe this is something!”

That’s where the latest Ottoneu innovation came from, and it’s a fun one. During the heat of draft season, when we run out of things to talk about other than the 10,000th debate over Edgar Quero’s auction value, a discussion about slow auctions (the 10,000th of those, too) resulted in people to start making outlandish suggestions about how to run drafts. And then Ottoneu creator Niv Shah commented:

What if players were randomly distributed?

He immediately got an “I would sign up for that” response. I half-joked, “Randomly assigned players with randomly assigned salaries.”

“Error bars around last 10 salary,” Niv replied. “So some variance, but generally market.”

And from that “a random league” was born. And while this sounds like a gimmick there is real interest in it and real value to it (which you can see from that thread). Niv and I will be co-managing a team in that league and I want to talk about a) why I think this is not just an interesting experiment, but a useful concept and b) what Niv and I need to do as managers of our randomly created team.

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In the first few days of the season, I have heard (and made!) a number of references to swing speed changes. As fantasy players, we are always looking for that leg up, the first piece of actionable data that we can act on to make a move that no one else is ready to make. Bat speed certainly seems like early useful data. If a guy has gained or lost bat speed, that might not show up in the results yet, and even if it does, we know better than to overreact to a guy hitting one more or one less homer than we might have expected.

But bat speed is subject to small samples sizes, as well. I looked into two specific examples of names that came up this weekend and – in both cases – found reasons to pause before acting.

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It feels like everyone played extra innings Saturday, but Dominic Smith had no interest in that.

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And that is how you celebrate after hanging an American League Championship banner.

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With the first games underway, we are going to be flooded with new information. All the spring lineup speculation will give way to actual lineups. The dream that someone might not be stuck in a platoon will die. The hope that a player’s newfound spring plate discipline is a game changer will be dashed. And before too long, you will learn where your roster is deep enough to withstand those losses, plus injuries, and where you aren’t.

You will also potentially have some open roster spots. Maybe you roster Justin Steele and now he is on the 60-day IL. Maybe one of those guys you were dreaming on turns into a cut by April. The good news is, sudden roster needs and suddenly available roster spots go together like a hot dog and a beer – the existence of the former means you probably need the latter, and the latter is just so much better when you pair it with the former.

So let’s try to find readily available players to fill those needs on your open roster. Here is one guy at each position who is currently <50% rostered in Ottoneu who you can go out and pick up if you find yourself in need.N

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I can usually tell you sometime in January or December who will show up in this piece. That’s not because I have started drafting – my leagues are all keeper or dynasty formats and I didn’t have any drafts until late January – but because I start to realize who I trust, who I am higher on than others, and who is likely to be on my rosters. This year, however, there are some surprises on my list.

I am not sure what to make of those surprises, but diving into these players, there are some patterns that might help me plan better for future seasons.

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Earlier this week, on the Keep or Kut podcast, I discussed (among other things) how all Spring Training news is bad. The good news (Jac Caglianone hit a ball a million miles per hour! Shota Imanaga has added velocity!) is all interesting but we immediately get into small-sample-size, how-much-does-it-mean debates. But the bad news is a lot of injuries and suspensions and that stuff you can act on right away.

You can see this in the Ottoneu add/drop data. The players being added in the most leagues the last seven days are mostly guys who are new to MLB or struggled last year – Tatsuya Imai, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, Mookie Betts, etc. The only player in the top 10 most added this week who can reasonably be attributed to spring news (the new kick change) is Kyle Harrison. The top 10 most dropped, however, are all spring news: Jurickson Profar, Pablo Lopez, Reese Olson, Anthony Santander, etc.

Way down on that list, but creeping up, is Hunter Greene.

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Bold prediction season is my favorite sub-season within draft season. Way ahead “we are drafting way too early season” and just barely edging out “prospect ranking season.” The worst sub-season within draft season is “pitchers and catchers reported two days ago and now every news alert is an injury” season. I hate that season.

But bold prediction season is the best. It brings out the absolute best of the baseball world. Everyone is putting a stake in the ground for the players they love. People are being wildly optimistic, because it is spring and it’s getting warmer out and the season hasn’t started yet so anything is possible. It just doesn’t get more fun than this.

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The FanGraphs Auction Calculator is an incredibly useful tool, that can model auction prices based on your preferred inputs (league settings, budgets, etc.) and assumptions (projection system). Like any model, the outputs of the Auction Calculator (AC) are neither inherently good or bad, but a reflection of those inputs and assumptions. If you get them right, you can export a spreadsheet that can drive your auction strategy; get them wrong and things get ugly.

Ottoneu players haven’t always viewed the Auction Calculator as an effective tool, but mostly that comes down to the challenge of finding the right settings. Today, we have updated the preset settings for Ottoneu on the Auction Calculator, making it easier to use and more effective for Ottoneu leagues. The preset settings might look a little odd, but they all serve a purpose.

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Ranking starting pitchers is probably harder than any other position. There are so many names to rank and there is so much to rank them on. Do you trust projections? Was that second half surge because of that new pitch? Or should we remember that correlation does not imply causation? And so I always struggle with this list. This year, I found the top of the list relatively straightforward, but really struggled with a huge swath of names from about 20-70.

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