Over the course of the season, I wrote 17 Ottoneu Hot or Cold Right Now articles. These articles, which Lucas Kelly and I tried to get out weekly, cover players who are being added, being dropped, being auctioned or just performing particularly well or particularly poorly. The goal is to analyze why the player is Hot or Cold at the moment and offer advice on what you should do. I have been writing these for a number of years now, but have never written a recap. That changes today.

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Over the last couple of weeks, I wrote about 1st and 2nd half splits, looking at one big gainer (Mike Burrows) and one big faller (Kodai Senga). Today, I turn my attention to the plate, with a first look at a hitter who fell off.

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I hate reviewing these bold predictions because, by their very nature, bold predictions are often wrong and so it is kind of depressing to go back and see just how wrong I was. I said as much when I wrote my bold predictions in March, and noted that my hope was they would be useful, even if wrong:

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Last week, I wrote about Mike Burrows, as he was the single largest gainer in Ottoneu FanGraphs points per IP between the first and second halves of the season, among pitchers with at least 30 IP as a starter in both halves. Today, I wanted to look at that same list and cover the pitcher who was the single largest faller among that same population. Except, I am not going to.

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Happy Arbitration Day, to those who celebrate! Today is the day Ottoneu Arbitration opens, both for vote off leagues and allocation leagues. If you are new to Ottoneu and not familiar with arbitration, there is a ton of information here – a quick Google search for “FanGraphs Ottoneu Arbitration” will bring up a decent number of results, but – before we get to the All Stars mentioned in the title – here are some of the best links.

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Ottoneu points leagues aren’t the same as 4×4 or 5×5. But there’s a subtle difference between H2H and season-long points leagues, as well. In season-long leagues, you have limits on games played for each position and innings pitched by your pitchers. That has relatively limited impact on bats, but it could theoretically impact the value of pitchers pretty significantly.

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First half/second half splits can be misleading. Inevitably, we will find ourselves in March, watching the hype increase on multiple players who were brilliant from mid-July to the end of the season, while wondering, “Was this real improvement? Just a hot streak? Should I fade the hype or buy in before the price gets even higher?” And some of those players will crash and burn and be cuts by May. And some will be legit breakouts. It’s risky to get too excited about short-term performance, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn something by identifying players whose second half was a big departure from their first.

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Chatting with Jake Mailhot about our plans for the off-season, he mentioned something his kid talked about: learning from her mistakes. First of all, that’s some A-plus parenting, Jake. But then Jake took it a step further and suggested that if his daughter could learn from her mistakes, so could we. So here are five numbers that represent mistakes I made this year and the lessons I learned.

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Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

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By the time the calendar flips to September, the game has changed in Ottoneu. Head-to-head leagues have entered the playoffs. Season-long leagues have standings split between those still competing (whether for a title, for a prize or for Ottoneu Prestige League eligibility) and those whose 2025 is now just prelude to 2026. By now, managers are even more aggressively going after titles or focusing on the future, and that has a real impact on auction bidding.

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