Folks, if you want to do something else we can totally forget about this. Right?

Sigh. The whole reason people like making predictions is that they garner a ton of traffic — power rankings, anyone? — and almost nobody ever holds them to reviewing them because the damn season is so long. It’s like a dog returning to its vomit or whatever, I think.

But anyway, here’s my a review of my word vomit from back in March:

1. Kyle Gibson holds top-50 value in leagues this season.

Welp. It was a disastrous season for Gibson, who saw a drop in groundball rate and strikeout rate and a jump in walk rate, leading to an ERA in excess of 5.00. Basically speaking, all the strides he appeared to be making late last year lapsed, despite his slider and changeup becoming even better pitches this year than last. Inexplicably, he threw both of them a lot less than in 2015. (0/1) Read the rest of this entry »

Alright, we’re back for the final edition of #2xSP for this season. Like most years, we’ve had some ups and downs, but it’s been markedly better than last year, and I’m not only pleased with how season four went with regards to season three, but I’m also excited for next year.

If you have some ideas to implement for next season, feel free to leave them in the comments section.

Here’s what we’re working with so far this season:

44-45 record
3.93 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
61 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Chad Kuhl – 12.7% ESPN – v. CHC (106), @STL (104)

I don’t love the matchups, but Kuhl has been pretty solid this season and I didn’t love a lot of the other pitchers going on Monday and Tuesday. This isn’t the first time Kuhl has faced the Cubs and Cardinals in succession, as he did so between two starts on Aug. 30 and Sept. 5. He pitched fine against the Cubs — three earned in five innings — but the Cardinals tousled him up a bit for three earned runs in just two innings. Still, his success this season hasn’t been over that small of a sampling. Over his last nine starts, he’s got a 3.10 ERA, .641 OPS against (.218 BAA) and solid 37-12 K/BB ratio in 49.1 innings. He gets plenty of grounders (46.3 percent), doesn’t walk too many batters (2.4 BB/9) and has a slider with a 17.8 percent whiff rate. Maybe it’s the foundation of something? Read the rest of this entry »

Here we are, for the penultimate edition of #2xSP this year. We’ve had a markedly better year than last, and the goal is to keep the ERA under 4.00 — after last week, woof — with a continued push for maybe 8.5 K/9 (high goal, but why not reach for the stars?) and hopefully lowering that WHIP under 1.30.

Here’s what we’re working with so far:

43-43 record
3.94 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.8 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
61 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP A.J. Cole – 13.3% ESPN – @MIA (93), @PIT (98)

It’s hard to really know what matters in samples as small as what Cole has put forth. What we do know for sure if this is a couple of pretty solid matchups, though going on the road can be a daunting task for any young pitcher. His first two starts on the road this year were solid — @BAL, @NYM — where he’s combined for a 3.46 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and an OPS against of just .640. Again, that’s just two starts, but those are solid numbers. Also solid is that Cole has induced double-digit swinging strike numbers in four of five starts, with the lone time he didn’t being eight in a season-low 78 pitches against the Phillies in his second-to-last start. That seems to back up the fact that he’s fanned more than a batter per inning — 31 in 28.2 innings — which should help us in the K/9 department. Now, let’s just hope for a couple quality starts.

UPDATE: We’re going with Clayton Richard instead of Cole, who will likely be bumped by the return of Joe Ross. The Padres face the Diamondbacks (95) and Giants (98) this week. Richard has a 1.70  ERA in eight appearances (six starts) with the Padres, with a 7.3 K/9 mark and a couple decent matchups at home this week.

Read the rest of this entry »

Alright we’re back for another week of #2xSP, and the harsh (?) reality is there aren’t too many of these left. We’re starting to come down the stretch run, and if you’re like me that also means playoff time in head-to-head leagues.

We’ve had a pretty good run of success here of late, as the worst week-by-week ERA I’ve had in the last five weeks is 4.18. I mean, they haven’t all been good, but for the season I’m pretty proud of the numbers put forth.

Speaking of, here are the season numbers:

42-41
3.87 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.32 WHIP
61 quality starts

And now, onto this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Ervin Santana – 44.2% ESPN – @DET (103), @NYM (96)

Big Erv has been a bit more embattled in recent starts, but overall he’s been pretty great in the second half: 2.89 ERA, .644 OPS against and 57-18 K/BB ratio in 65.1 innings/10 starts. He’s not flashy, but just gets the job done. For the Twins, that makes him their de facto as, as they’ve got the worst rotation in baseball by not a small margin. He’s only faced Detroit once this year, but held them to just one earned run in seven innings back on July 20 in his second start after the break. The Mets should be an interesting matchup, though not a particularly worrisome one. Read the rest of this entry »

Alright so we’re back here for another edition of #2xSP. There aren’t many left of these this year, so maybe it’s time to reflect, or at least look forward. I think a reasonably fair goal is to keep the ERA under 4.00, strikeouts above 8.0 per nine innings and maybe, just maybe sneak that K/BB up over 3.0. It’s fair to say this year has gone markedly better than last: 4.66 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.2 K/BB and 1.41 WHIP, and this year is more consistent with the previous two years in the now four-year (?!?) track record of this column.

Here’s where we stand so far this season:

42-40 record
3.95 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
59 quality starts
Real-world equivalent: roughly Jake Odorizzi?

Here are this week’s recs (with opponents wRC+ in parentheses):

LHP Tyler Anderson – 20.6% ESPN – v. SFG (101), @SDP (87)

With Anderson it flat out boils down to the fact that I love him. I love a guy who can get strikeouts (8.3 K/9), grounders (53.5%) and doesn’t walk many (2.2 BB/9), and that is even more true at Coors Field. He’s posted a 3.43 ERA that checks out peripherally, and I just don’t see that many red flags with him after 15 MLB starts. I’m cautiously optimistic he can handle Coors long-term, as he’s posted a 3.11 ERA at home versus a 4.21 mark on the road, but his opposing batter splits are flipped in that respect. Batters have hit .266/.318/.409 against him at Coors Field, and just .211/.267/.383 on the road. Even if the answer is somewhere in the middle, I think he’s a really solid guy moving forward. Read the rest of this entry »

We got off to a pretty solid start in week 18, with Kevin Gausman and Dan Straily putting up scoreless outings before seeing that Homer Bailey got rocked a bit, but overall we’re halfway through that week with a 3.77 ERA and a pair of quality starts under our belts. One issue: We somehow missed that Dan Straily was starting Tuesday with an off-day on Thursday, so he won’t be making two starts this week, but will be doing so next week with a Monday start.

With that said, if you grabbed Straily, use him this week instead! He had a very nice start and has been one of the hardest pitchers to square up in the NL all season.

Here’s how we’re doing through half of week 18 overall:

40-38 record
3.93 ERA
8.1 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.31 WHIP
57 quality starts

….and here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Tom Koehler – 40.3% ESPN – @NYM (93), @CLE (104)

It’s understandable if Koehler doesn’t do much for you on the whole, as he’s got a so-so ERA with some iffy peripherals as a 30-year-old who has put together mostly a nondescript career. But he’s been very, very solid over the last month or so — so much so that it stands to take note of. He’s carried a 2.16 ERA through four August starts so far (20-5 K/BB ratio in 25 innings, .599 OPS against) and he was also solid in July (3.33 ERA). All told, since July 1 — a span of nine starts — he’s got a 2.77 ERA, .650 OPS against and 36-12 K/BB ratio in 52 innings. He lost to the Mets twice already this season, but now seems like as good of a time as ever for him to get off the schneid. Read the rest of this entry »

Alright we’re back for another edition of #2xSP, and after a weird Week 15 (0-5, 4.18 ERA, 9.5 K/9 and three quality starts), we’re off to a pretty good start in Week 16 (3-0, 2.55 ERA, 6.1 K/9, but just one quality start). I guess on the aggregate, those two weeks combined would be pretty solid.

This week was a bit of a struggle, but I really like the first name and the other two I’m semi-enthused about, so let’s get after it. First of all, here are the season marks:

37-35 record
4.01 ERA
8.1 K/9
2.8 BB/9
1.33 WHIP
52 quality starts

And here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Homer Bailey – 28.3% ESPN – v. LAD (98), @ARI (94)

“Hi, I’m Homer Bailey, and you might remember me from not pitching a full season since 2013.” While that is true, as Bailey made 23 starts in 2014 and just two last year before missing a ton of time with Tommy John surgery. Before that, he had surgery to repair a tear in his flexor tendon in his throwing elbow as well. Either way, he’s back and ready to roll, and has a couple decent matchups coming up this week. Beyond that, he’s looked pretty good so far in his four starts since returning: 3.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 12.4 K/9. Opposing batters have hit just .269/.337/.321 against him, with the OBP a bit alarming but nothing else terribly out of whack. Either way, it isn’t often that you get a starter of Bailey’s caliber largely available on the wire at this time of year. Get on it. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re off to a good start so far in the half-week that’s been Week 16, with quality starts all across the board from Tyler Anderson, Collin McHugh and Kevin Gausman — though weirdly, they’re a combined 0-2. But anyway, maybe we can get you to go ahead and forget about the Week 15 recommendations then, right? Woof, that didn’t end well, as Dylan Bundy accounted for both of our quality starts in a week where Jimmy Nelson and Kyle Gibson got completely obliterated.

But onward and upward, right?

Here are the numbers we’re working with so far this season:

34-32 record
4.00 ERA
8.0 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.31 WHIP
51 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Ervin Santana – 38% ESPN – @ATL (79), @KCR (88)

Santana’s working on a string of nine straight starts where he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs, with seven of those starts being quality starts as he’s lowered his ERA from 5.10 to 3.62 in that time frame. Over that entire time frame, he’s pitched to the following numbers: 2.05 ERA, .543 OPS against and 44-10 K/BB ratio in 61.1 innings. Those maybe aren’t ace numbers — especially when factoring in whiff rate and a .246 BABIP — but it’s easy to see why the Twins see him as part of the solution rather than the “problem” moving forward. Sure, they’re betting on his right shoulder holding up after all those sliders in his ages 34-35 seasons, but at $27 million it’s not the craziest bet they’ve ever made. This week, he gets a couple of #OldFriend clubs, as he squares off against a pair of mediocre offenses in the Braves (whom he was with in 2014) and the Royals (2013). By team wRC+, both are in the bottom-five across MLB. Read the rest of this entry »

Woof. After getting all excited about how Week 14 had started — and it still finished with a solid 2.52 ERA — the wheels came off last week a bit. Then again, we still have Dylan Bundy we can bond over, right? Right?!?

Hopefully this week will be better, as three names really stuck out to me while preparing for this week’s column. Or perhaps more accurately, there were three decent names and a fair amount of ‘meh’.

Here’s a look at the season numbers cobbled together thus far:

32-29 record
3.99 ERA
8.0 K/9
3.0 BB/9
1.31 WHIP
47 quality starts

Here at this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Collin McHugh – 33.6% ESPN – @MIN (99), @TOR (103)

There’s good and bad wherever you look with McHugh, who has a 4.73 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season, but has also managed a solid 121-35 K/BB ratio through 121.2 innings. He was absolutely battered in his penultimate start against the Tigers (eight earned, just four outs recorded) but pretty much all of his starts around it have been pretty good. In his last eight starts, save the Tigers outing, he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each, with a quality start in seven of those eight. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles the Blue Jays in such close proximity; last start he also faced them, and threw six innings, allowing three earned runs — three solo home runs — with 10 strikeouts and just one walk. Read the rest of this entry »

After an incredible first half of week 14 — 0.90 ERA, 3-for-3 in quality starts, 17-2 K/BB ratio and 0.55 WHIP — we’re feeling pretty good heading into week 15. Here’s how things have shook out so far this season:

30-27 record
3.87 ERA
8.2 K/9
3.0 K/BB
1.30 WHIP
45 quality starts

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses:

RHP Jimmy Nelson – 21.6% ESPN – @SDP (92), @ARI (95)

It might be a tough sell on Nelson, who has decent enough numbers this year but is a) coming off getting absolutely rocked by the Diamondbacks (whom he sees on the back end this week) and b) walks way, way too many batters. He’s got the third most walks in the NL (55) and has given up his share of extra-base hits as well, so while his .255 BAA looks impressive, he’s sporting a triple-slash against of .255/.344/.403. So while that doesn’t look all that appetizing, it came down to him or Adam Conley (Cubs and Rockies both at home), Archie Bradley (also getting largely rocked; will likely face Nelson on Saturday) or James Paxton (Red Sox and Angels). So….we’re playing the matchups here, kind of. Read the rest of this entry »