It was another bleak week, as my selections last time around got peppered pretty good their first time out. As a result, we’re back to where we started after week one. That’s OK, it’s a marathon, not a race, right? On the bright side, we finally are moving past the Minnesota Twins-level strikeout rates, though we’ve brought the K/BB down and the WHIP up with it. We’ll get there friends, I am confident.

Here are the totals through half of week three:

4-7 record
4.89 ERA
6.0 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.33 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses. Y! recs pulled courtesy of twitter pal @Adams_Steve, who is one of the great folks over at MLB Trade Rumors whom you should definitely follow:

RHP Travis Wood – 26.2% ESPN/23% Y! – @STL (.318), @MIL (.276)

The Milwaukee matchup is killer for Wood, as the Brewers have the No. 29 offense in terms of wOBA. Even with Carlos Gomez coming back, it’s an offense that is hitting .225/.276/.347 and is taking virtually no walks (5.5%). I’ll take my chances there. The Cardinals could be pretty tough on the front end, as they have a top-10 offense wOBA-wise — like always — and are doing so with a pretty balanced team triple-slash of .268/.335/.393. On his own, Wood has been really good, fanning just under 10 batters per nine innings with an improved walk rate and FIP numbers that generally back up his 3.04 ERA. The strand rate is a bit high and he’s fly ball heavy, so that could lead to him being somewhat blowup prone, but I think there’s enough intrigue to stream him here. Maybe even hold onto him if you see a little bit more this week. Read the rest of this entry »

After getting utterly rocked in the first week of #2xSP, this last stretch was very solid halfway through the second go-round. Hopefully that’ll keep up for the second starts, which take place Saturday and Sunday.

Here are the totals through half of week two:

3-3 record
3.72 ERA
5.2 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.08 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses. Y! recs pulled courtesy of twitter pal @hotakesonsports. Give him a follow!:

RHP Joe Kelly – 28.8% ESPN/26% Y! – v. TOR (.346), v. NYY (.328)

Would you believe me if I told you Kelly has the best four-seam fastball velocity among qualified starters so far this season? Heck, I’m not sure I’d believe it myself, but at 96.1 mph here we are. Kelly has always had plenty of velocity, but this season his four- and two-seamer — his preferred heater — have picked up about a full tick each, and thus far the early results are promising. Kelly has fanned 18 hitters in 17.2 innings, while pitching to a 4.08 ERA that in some ways appears to be even a bit unlucky. It’ll be interesting to monitor not only the strikeout jump but the groundball drop — 39.6% this year, 51.8% career — because the latter is the sort of thing that is supposed to stabilize quite quickly. It’d also be truly interesting to see a pitcher that pitches better away from St. Louis, for once. This’ll be a tough week for Kelly, and maybe his first big test, as these are a pair of divisional foes who are swinging it pretty good right now. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, we took a bit of a bath through the first part of week one, but I like to think there were some better candidates this time around. Have a peek, and let us know what you think in the comments.

Here are the totals through half of the first week:

0-1 record
6.88 ERA
4.2 K/9
1.6 K/BB
1.41 WHIP

Sheesh. It can only get better.

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses.:

LHP Jon Niese – 6.4% ESPN/9% Y! – v. ATL (.311), @NYY (.311) Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back for what I believe to be year four of 2xSP. We didn’t roll out last week with mostly just aces and No. 2s to deal with in the opening week, though I suppose you could have streamed Kyle Kendrick, right? Anyway…as always, I’ll keep the spreadsheet updated and will share it periodically (or upon demand if you wish). Here’s the link to it for now. If you can think of specific ways to improve this, please let us know in the comments. Thanks.

First a look at the last year’s totals:

49-39 record
3.79 ERA
7.6 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.30 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses. Yahoo ownership figures courtesy of twitter pal @PandaPete21 (follow him!):

LHP Daniel Norris – 5.8% ESPN/23% Y! – v. TBR (.310), v. ATL (.305)

Let’s just get this out of the way: this first week was hard. Not only are drafters seemingly getting smarter this year — thereby depriving you of my recommendations of Danny Duffy, James Paxton and Brandon McCarthy — but this is a quirky week where I really wanted to recommend Shane Greene (exempt as Tuesday starter with an off day) and Eno Sarris-darling Anthony Desclafani (same as Greene).

But anyway, this Norris week is pretty awesome. He gets a couple of really nice matchups, and will no doubt race up the ownership numbers as the season wears on, making this probably the only time we can recommend him in this sort of format. Norris’ Rays matchup could be beneficial because their rotation is still so in flux they haven’t even announced a Monday starter yet. Yikes. Norris looked pretty good in his season debut — his second big league start as well — “outdueling” C.C. Sabathia over 5.2 innings with five strikeouts to get his first major-league win. Projections are high on Norris this year as well, expecting roughly a strikeout an inning with so-so walk numbers and a high-3.00s/low-4.00s ERA. They Jays will push him pretty hard with Marcus Stroman out too, I’d imagine. Most projections have him making ~20 starts, but it’ll likely be north of that should he remain healthy. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve written at length about my Scoresheet team, and with us now nearly on the eve of the season, drafting has ceased and rosters are set. Today, I’d like to share my completed roster to be ripped apart by readers. How’s that sound?

If you haven’t tuned in before — and believe me, I get that — Scoresheet is basically a real-life based simulation where you put together an entire roster — up to 30 active players at a time — including utility players, relievers, and a few minor leaguers if you so desire. There’s no limit of how many guys you can roster, but the keeper rules exist to keep that number pretty low.

Any player you keep — up to 10 — that qualifies as a major leaguer based on service time costs you a pick up front. Any minor leaguer you keep costs you a pick counting back from round 35. There are supplementals during the year to fill rosters more fully as well as to disperse recently drafted players, and there are also dispersal drafts in the offseason when teams drop out and new ones join so that newcomers get a relatively fair shake.

I had a very strong keeper list, and for some reason nobody was all that interested in trading me much for guys I couldn’t otherwise keep. Also keep in mind, a number of these guys were healthy when I submitted my keeper list a couple months ago. Read the rest of this entry »

After completely missing the point that these bold predictions — published on Rotographs, after all — should be fantasy related the first few years, I think I’m going to actually make the leap and, you know, do my job correctly.

With that said, here are my 10 hot ta Bold Predictions for the upcoming season:

1. Kyle Gibson is no worse than the second-most valuable Twins starter in fantasy this year.

With Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana and even Ricky Nolasco in-house, I think this qualifies as bold. Through just over 230 big league innings, Gibson holds a 4.92 ERA, 5.3 K/9 and is a game under .500 at 15-16 record-wise. Still, when digging into his PITCHf/x, I found his slider picked up considerable steam in terms of results (.846 OPS in 2013; .517 in 2014) and it can’t be chalked up to any discernible usage difference. In fact, he threw it more often in 2014. Add to that an emerging changeup that’ll probably play up with the tutelage of former Rays minor league pitching coach Neil Allen on his side, and I think Gibson has some sleeper potential. The bowling ball sinker (54.4% GB rate last year) will always be there, but health and better stuff seem to be coming down the line. I’m buying Gibson this year. Read the rest of this entry »

To atone for time missed due to the Arizona trip, I figured I’d fire up a quick hitter about where we’re at with the BP Kings Scoresheet draft.

As many of you may well know, I’m in year four of this league which originally sprouted via the Baseball Prospectus family — hence the BP. It’s a very competitive league, and one I finally found myself at the forefront of with a 90-plus win season last year thanks to a very strong rotation.

This year, well, I’m already snakebitten.

It’s a 24-team, AL and NL league with a slow draft that is roughly half done rounds-wise — maybe more like one-third done picks wise — as we slog through the 16th round today.

I have a few questions to crowdsource, but here’s where I’m at right now. Please keep in mind that my keepers list was submitted in February. Big league keepers cost you front end picks (up to 10) while minor league keepers cost you picks counting back from round 30 — which is the length of the original draft. Every two months we have a two-round supplemental, including after the MLB draft in June.

You field essentially a 25-man roster — you can roster more guys but it’s a full MLB roster concept — so that means you need backups, bullpens and so on.

Keepers (in no real order):
1. Jose Abreu 1B
2. Xander Bogaerts 3B
3. A.J. Pollock CF
4. Jason Heyward RF
5. Chris Sale SP
6. Masahiro Tanaka SP
7. Yu Darvish SP (ouch)
8. Marcus Stroman SP (ouch 2.o)
9. Sonny Gray SP
10. Yasmani Grandal C Read the rest of this entry »

Sorry for the week-long hiatus. I actually found myself in Arizona with the Fangraphs crew last weekend, and I’ll be honest with you: I sat at a table with my fellow nerds and started working on this, but found the conversation too interesting to finish it before we left for Talking Stick to see the A’s take on the Diamondbacks. A million apologies.

You’ve already been subjected to Ottoneu Fangraphs League II banter from Scott Spratt, Brad Johnson and Chad Young, and now I’m going to subject you to just a little bit more.

Here’s a rundown of what we’re working with here:

Roster Spots Filled: 40/40
Dollars Used: $335/$412 ($400 + $12 trade)
Linear Weights

I’m aware I broke the cardinal rule of not spending all or nearly all the money. Part of that is my methodology — I love having free agent flexibility — and part of it was a few guys I targeted that came in under values. Ultimately, I have a 40-man roster that I rather like — not likely a contender, but interesting nonetheless — and even as a revisionist, there aren’t too many players I’d retroactively wish I had won. Carlos Santana comes to mind, and that’s about it. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite going on an acquisition binge during the offseason, the Chicago White Sox did little to alter the overall landscape of their infield. All five presumed starters were in the organization last year — if you count designated hitter, Adam LaRoche is a newcomer — though there is some new blood among the secondary faces.

To get a feel where the White Sox could use some improvement from last year, here are their positional ranks by wOBA:

Catcher – .304 (13th)
First Base – .359 (6th)
Second Base – .275 (25th)
Third Base – .320 (11th)
Shortstop – .314 (t-6th)
Designated Hitter – .312 (8th in AL)

As a team the Pale Hose were 12th in wOBA at .312 — just a percentage point behind the Indians and Brewers who tied for 10th. For all the perceived hand-wringing about the White Sox’ offense, the additions to this crew could take it from ‘pretty good’ to ‘among the league’s best’ in a hurry.

Anyway, what we care about today is the infield. I’ve enlisted the help of esteemed White Sox beat reporter Dan Hayes from CSN Chicago — follow him — to get the inside scoop. Let’s take a peek:

The Locks

1B Jose Abreu
SS Alexei Ramirez
3B Conor Gillaspie
DH Adam LaRoche

Abreu outperformed even the wildest expectations last year — .317/.383/.581 — and will no doubt be among the first few first baseman off the board in your draft. For all the worry about his plate discipline, Abreu fanned in just 21.1% of his plate appearances last year — below the 21.3 percent league-average mark for first basemen. As long as he hits he’ll draw walks out of respect, and pretty much everyone is forecasting another solid season from him. Maybe not quite a .400-plus wOBA, but on the cusp. Read the rest of this entry »

As a group, the Royals outfield was a dynamic bunch in 2014. It was responsible for a great part of the success that drove Kansas City to within an eyelash of the World Series title.

By WAR, only three teams outpaced the Royals outfield at 15.2: the Orioles, Pirates and Rays, respectively. More importantly to the context of their value, no outfield defense was anywhere close to Kansas City’s. Only five teams had a higher fly ball rate. Only four teams allowed fewer home runs per fly ball than the Royals, which doesn’t really apply to the outfielders on the surface, but rather what the team is trying to do on the whole.

There’s some room for regression in those last two statements. Only three teams since 2000 have had better defensive seasons than the Royals as an outfield last year. The Royals checked in at plus-43.3 defensive runs. Only the 2005 Braves (60.4!), 2009 Mariners (50.4) and 2007 Braves (44.2) have that mark beat. The 2013 Royals however — largely the same group as 2014 — checked in at 38.7, so the biggest difference will be what, if any, dropoff comes from a change in right field. Read the rest of this entry »