We Had a Draft, and Almost Everyone Showed Up: Ottoneu, Fangraphs II

Sorry for the week-long hiatus. I actually found myself in Arizona with the Fangraphs crew last weekend, and I’ll be honest with you: I sat at a table with my fellow nerds and started working on this, but found the conversation too interesting to finish it before we left for Talking Stick to see the A’s take on the Diamondbacks. A million apologies.

You’ve already been subjected to Ottoneu Fangraphs League II banter from Scott Spratt, Brad Johnson and Chad Young, and now I’m going to subject you to just a little bit more.

Here’s a rundown of what we’re working with here:

Roster Spots Filled: 40/40
Dollars Used: $335/$412 ($400 + $12 trade)
Linear Weights

I’m aware I broke the cardinal rule of not spending all or nearly all the money. Part of that is my methodology — I love having free agent flexibility — and part of it was a few guys I targeted that came in under values. Ultimately, I have a 40-man roster that I rather like — not likely a contender, but interesting nonetheless — and even as a revisionist, there aren’t too many players I’d retroactively wish I had won. Carlos Santana comes to mind, and that’s about it.

One recent development included me moving Tyler Glasnow ($2) and Rougned Odor ($4) for A.J. Cole ($2, will drop for a reliever), Russell Martin and cash. I didn’t necessarily want Martin, but need the insurance as you’ll read shortly.

So here’s what I’m working with:

Catchers – Russell Martin ($17, less $12 trade kicker), Yasmani Grandal ($10)

I drafted Grandal and Kurt Suzuki ($1, since cut), and then traded for Martin from Marc Hulet for a little depth. With 162 games between two catchers, it’ll be hard to strike a balance but knowing that Grandal is a sleeper helps me justify the move. In the best-case scenario, one or the other takes off as a clear-cut starter and the other can be moved. We’ll see.

Corner Infielders – Adrian Gonzalez ($20), Manny Machado ($13), Joe Mauer ($1)

I like this bunch. There’s some risk with Machado and injuries of course, but at his age I’ll take that risk. Even after a down year, I expected to pay more than a buck for Mauer. That was one of my budgetary surpluses. Gonzalez at $20 seems about right. I’ll probably use Mauer at utility to start.

Middle Infielders – J.J. Hardy ($16), Xander Bogaerts ($12), Brian Dozier ($7), Brad Miller ($3)

The depth here allowed me to move Odor, even though that was a tough pill to swallow. That’s too much for Hardy, but I wanted shortstop insurance in case Bogaerts struggled out of the gates. I’m also an unabashed Hardy fan. I love Dozier at that price, and I still believe in the ISO for Miller.

Outfielders – Bryce Harper ($43), Wil Myers ($16), Gregory Polanco ($12), Yasmany Tomas ($10), Billy Hamilton ($7), A.J. Pollock ($6), Desmond Jennings ($4),

Ultimately I’ll have to do something with Harper at this price, but with my budget I have no issue paying him until he either A. justifies it or B. gets cut in the offseason to go back into the pool. There’s always a trade possibility as the races heat up. Myers is a bit high, but the same thing applies. If he’s good, he’ll be keepable after next year’s allocations, or he’ll be an easy cut. I don’t mind that. The rest of the bunch has some upside and is at a reasonable price. After seeing Tomas in Arizona I’m a bit iffy on him, but it’s not the end of the world at $10. Funny: Harper costs nearly as much as the other outfielders combined ($55).

Starting Pitchers – Gerrit Cole ($19), Danny Salazar ($10), Alex Wood ($9), Andrew Heaney ($6), Mike Minor ($6), Garrett Richards ($5), Shelby Miller ($4), Matt Moore ($2), Kyle Gibson ($1)

There are no bona fide stars here, but with the way I see pitching league-wide, I’d prefer to go this way. A lot of FG guys I talked to in Arizona thought Cole is on his way, and I gave up Hisashi Iwakuma to get Salazar from Brad. With that in mind I thought $10 was a pretty justifiable ‘keep’. Wood has the makings of a really nice pitcher, and I’m hoping for health from Richards and Moore, growth from Miller and emergence from Gibson. For a middle-of-the-pack team, I think that’s justifiable.

Relievers – Glen Perkins ($9), Sean Doolittle ($5), Shawn Kelley ($1)

I’m looking into relievers to pick up yet with my roster spot from dumping Cole. I’m not terribly worried about filling out my relief corps on a team I don’t expect to contend, so I’m not about to dump one of my prospects just so I can make a roster move I’ll later — or maybe right away — regret. I’ll add a fourth reliever via waivers here, and who knows, maybe one of the starters above like Moore could work out of the pen on his way back from injury? I don’t see it, but I’m not terribly worried, either. I like these three guys, specifically Kelley, whom I think will do great things in a loaded Padres bullpen. Perkins’ and Doolittle’s injuries of late have given me a little pause, but I’m not really in any place to dump or move them, so it’s a ‘wait it out’ scenario.

Prospects – Byron Buxton ($10), Miguel Sano ($8), Lucas Giolito ($7), Alex Meyer ($6), Archie Bradley ($6), Jon Gray ($5), Carlos Correa ($5), Raimel Tapia ($4), Julio Urias ($3), Hunter Harvey ($2), Jose Berrios ($2), A.J. Cole ($2)

This is pretty much where I can hang my hat. Granted, ideally I’d like to have anyone over $5 for under that, but it just doesn’t seem to work that way in this league. Either way, I think have the best prospect listing this side of Hulet, and maybe even more so than he. If even half of these guys emerge, it should give me a ton of flexibility with a relatively young MLB roster to move some things around and position myself for a run maybe next season.

That said, I’m opening myself up for ripping. What do you like? What do you hate?