It’s been a long day without you, my friend. And I’ll tell you all about it when I own you again.

We’ve come along way from where we began with Carl Crawford as a fantasy baseball asset. Once one of the premiere outfielders in the game thanks to double-digit power, a .300 average, and 50-steal wheels, Crawford’s fallen on harder times since he landed with the Boston Red Sox in 2011. This is further proof that the Red Sox are evil and you should divest all shares of David Price.

Speed and defense don’t always age gracefully into a player’s 30s, and now 34, Crawford’s best days are decidedly behind him. But someone has to eat up the plate appearances that Andre Ethier, out 10-to-14 weeks with a fractured right tibia, is abandoning in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ outfield.

It’s crazy to think, but a guy who once had his fantasy value debated against that of Moises Alou or Gary Sheffield may now be relevant once again.
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As part of my warm-up for my long run each weekend, I make sure to get a fire tweet off before hitting the road. It’s a good way to have the brain let the body know that it’s time to get that money.

To wit:

Decision technically isn’t official but it might as well be: Josh Donaldson will hit with 1 out and the bases empty in 70% of 1st innings.

— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) March 19, 2016

That, in response to this:

The decision technically isn’t official but it might as well be. Kevin Pillar will open the year as the #BlueJays leadoff hitter.

— Gregor Chisholm (@gregorMLB) March 19, 2016

OK, so it wasn’t a fire tweet. We all have off days. But the unofficial-official determination that Kevin Pillar will bat lead off for the Toronto Blue Jays is a little bit disappointing, and it stands to have an impact not just on his own value but the value of those around him in the lineup.
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The lone benefit of not writing here at Rotographs last season was that it was impossible for me to get a single bold prediction wrong. That won’t be the case this time around, as my track record – and, let’s be honest, everyone’s – is more than a little shaky.

But a high contact rate isn’t the aim here. We can’t have a bold bold mouth talking not so bold. These predictions are about swinging for the fences, and that’s what I’ll aim to do, often whiffing wildly in the hopes of connecting on two or three 450-footers. So let’s stop the acting like we’re bold and get it cracking at a show.

Sadly, I won’t be recommending Sergio Santos this season, something I laughably did in 2013 and 2014.
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Hey there.

So, I kind of feel like this is my first day, or if not my first official day, the day you show up to get your course calendar and wander around campus aimlessly, hoping you don’t trip on a raised piece of sidewalk or get your headphone cord caught on a bike’s handlebars or anything. I’m not new here, but I was absent last season, and this is my first foray into the Roto Riteup. I’m excited to be joining Zach Sanders and Justin Mason, two people far better suited for it, in this role.

But mostly, I’ve gained a great sense of inflated importance, like a returning Y2J here to save you all from the shoehorned pop-culture references of my predecessor. And yes, these are big shoes I’ll aim to fill. Well, probably not. The outgoing David Wiers – on to big, big things – strikes me as a small-footed sort. What he lacks in foot size, he made up for in heart, humor, and intelligence, and while I can’t promise to match him on any of those measures, I can at least promise I have similarly easy to make fun of taste in music.

Nice fellow that he is, Wiers sent the following as a sort of transitional message to his faithful readership:

Legend says White House Press Secretaries pass down a flak jacket from one to the next. Within the fabled jacket is quips, advice and jokes from prior Press Secretaries. Unfortunately for the Roto Riteup, no such tradition exists, just a brutal trial-by-fire from the comment section that I never truly pass, but merely endured until the readers got used to me. Don’t worry, both Justin and Blake are more than capable, especially compared to myself and that grump Sanders.

He did not, however, tell me how to turn off getting emails for every single comment on an article. Anyway, please be gentle, and let’s get on with it.

On today’s agenda:
1. Love the Drake or Hate the Drake?
2. No suspension for Yasiel Puig
3. Bronson Arroyo tears labrum
4. Ruben Tejada released
5. Blue Jays’ fifth-starter race heating up

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I’m always torn when setting a draft date for a fantasy league, particularly a redraft one. Most people I play with generally want the draft to be as close to the start of the regular season as possible, which makes sense – the longer you wait, the more information becomes available, and the more certainty players have, especially when it comes to playing-time estimates.

Depending on your level of risk-seeking, the depth of the league, and your confidence in finding early-season waiver-wire sleepers, an earlier draft might be your preference. It’s certainly mine. In those cases, I’m comfortable using picks in the later rounds on sleepers who may or may not make a team, trusting that if they wind up optioned to the minor leagues (or designated for assignment, as it were), I’ll be able to plug someone in out of the free-agent bin comparable to a “floor” pick I could have otherwise used that selection on.

The longer you wait to do your draft, the less opportunity there is to take those playing-time-uncertain fliers. Either those players will be deemed to be without a job, or others will have grown wise to their hold on a job, bidding the price up.

My favorite example to illustrate the impact of draft timing this year is Trea Turner, the No. 2 prospect of the potential NL East-champion Washington Nationals.
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I stared at the two options for a long time.

Russell Martin as a 21st-round pick.
Dee Gordon as a 3rd-round pick.

I referred to my projections for each, the replacement level at their position, the surplus value over the expected return in each draft slot. I stared. I went for a run. I came back, stared.
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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Imagine having Mike Trout on your team. Seriously, just think about it for a second. An easy 30 home runs. Roughly a .300/.400/.600 triple-slash line, the baseball equivalent of basketball’s 50-40-90 club. Some stolen bases. Solid defense from a premium position. Kisses babies, shakes hands, frolics with puppies. All that good stuff.

Now imagine surrounding him – he of the four consecutive top-two finishes in American League MVP voting – with a supporting cast that still grades you as below-average on offense, with a 96 weighted runs created-plus and a pedestrian .307 OBP, after including Trout to bring the numbers up. Splitting his time between second and third in the order, Trout managed “just” 90 RBI, in part because the team’s lead-off hitters OBPd .280 (!!) and the team’s other regular No. 2 hitter, Kole Calhoun, struggled to get on base in that spot, too.

It has to be frustrating, having the best player in baseball and missing the playoffs because of the team around him. Not that the Angels were bad – they won 85 games despite getting outscored – and the nice thing about employing Trout is that you’re always going to project as “pretty decent” at worst. Still, it’s not exactly the most exciting lineup around him again in 2016.
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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Fresh off of the Hank controversy, the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves starting down another tough story to spin: A second consecutive season under .500. The Brew Crew haven’t gone back-to-back on the losing side of the ledger since 2009-2010, and even those teams flirted with an even record. To find the last time the Brewers won 68 games and had little reason for optimism, you’d have to go back to a Ben Sheets-led 2004 squad, and that team had Sheets, who was awesome. That might not seem like an eternity ago, but this is a team that’s grown accustomed to being decent, if not good.

Projections don’t like their chances for a rebound in 2016, and the pitching staff is a big reason why. A year after landing in the middle of the pack for wins above replacement from pitchers despite their rotation ERA jumping more than a run, nobody seems to think the Brewers will be able to prevent opponents from scoring. Out a Mike Fiers and a Kyle Lohse without a big acquisition or marquee prospect banging at the door, that’s understandable.

It doesn’t mean there aren’t a few fantasy arms worth keeping an eye on throughout the spring. It just means Hank II might not be the only one having an accident or two at Miller Park.
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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

The final season for the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field stands to be one of their most disappointing, so long as you’re of the belief meeting exceptionally low expectations still qualifies as a disappointment. The Braves opened their Turner Field tenure (then called Centennial Olympic Stadium) in 1997 with a 101-win season, winning 10 division titles in nearly two decades there. Last year, the Braves recorded 67 wins, the fewest in their history at the park. They stand to challenge that mark in 2016.

That’s because the Braves are coming off of a league-worst weighted runs created-plus of 85, built on a .251/.314/.359 triple-slash line that produced a sub-.300 weighted on-base average. That’s a lot of numbers to say the Braves’ offense was bad, with the league’s least-dangerous power-hitting lineup and not much plus-contact or speed to speak of to help make up for it.

Thee had a busy offseason in response, to the point that this year’s roster will look drastically different from last season’s. That’s probably a positive, even if Fangraphs’ projections see them scoring more than only the Phillies, if only for catharsis. And hey, maybe life at SunTrust Park will be better, even if it’s inconvenient for the bulk of the fan base and a waste of tax dollars.
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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Things did not go well for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2015, but it would be difficult to pin too much of that on their pitching staff. With a 3.74 ERA and 3.91 FIP, the Rays’ pitchers weren’t exactly world-beaters, but they weren’t the team’s biggest problem, either. They ranked in the middle third of the league in pitcher wins above replacement, walk rate, ERA, and FIP-. They just kind of were.

The issue, in some cases, was timing. The Rays ranked sixth in strikeout percentage as a whole, but their rotation was much better (fourth) in that regard than a bullpen lighter on gas. That bullpen posted 87 meltdowns, sixth-highest in baseball, which served to squander a bit of what a fringe-top-10 rotation was able to manage, and that bullpen lost lefty Jake McGee, to boot. That could be an iffy area again in 2016, one the .500-bound Rays didn’t see fit to invest a ton in.

The rotation, by the way, only had to go nine-deep a year ago. If it can stay relatively healthy once again, even getting a late-season reinforcement back from the disabled list, the Rays could have one of the better cost-effective rotations in baseball.
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