Jack Moore covered this for the main site, but I wanted to touch on it from a fantasy perspective. Chris Perez blew a three-run lead in the ninth inning last night, to no surprise of anyone who has read RotoGraphs all winter. Dan Wade looked at Perez and Pestano and I elaborated on why I felt that Pestano should be drafted before spring training began.
The first edition of my closer tiers has only enhanced my opinion that the position is pretty deep this year. There are certainly a few question marks, but there are a lot of high upside closers in the middle to late rounds. The first and second tier feature rock solid closers, but the third is an extremely sturdy group, in my opinion. The bottom tier guys could end up moving up as the season goes, but their lack of a hold on the closer position hurts them at this point. Some closer situations are still a bit fuzzy, but everything will likely be figured out in the next edition of the closer tiers.
In light of his very nice contract extension, which Brandon Warne covered extensively earlier this week, I figured giving my thoughts on Alex Gordon would be timely.
Gordon was a fantasy MVP for many teams last year. If you took a flier on him in your draft last season, you were rewarded greatly as almost nobody expected the type of season he had. Everyone understood that Gordon was talented, but a .300 average along with 23 homers and 17 steals was surprising to even the biggest Gordon optimists. He put it together, much like his fellow outfielders Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur did, for the first time in his career.
Late and drafts and even on the waiver wire, buy lows with extremely high upside are available. In both position players and pitchers, there are oft-injured players who are also oft-productive that can be drafted late or picked up as free agents. Here are three pitchers that I think can be worth a roster spot at the start of the year.
A disclaimer I must add is that this is possibly the worst time to create holds tiers that I could ever imagine. The injuries to closers such as Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson and attempting to judge who will be their replacements make these rankings difficult. The Royals are supposedly leaning towards Jonathan Broxton, but how long will that last for? The Reds are considering going with a closer by committee, but if Sean Marshall starts locking down saves, will they be willing to move pitchers around late in games?
I did not want to get into a big guessing game in that regard. For sake of these rankings, I assumed Marshall and Broxton would close. Below my personal, not RotoGraphs’, holds tiers for the upcoming season.
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This is a question I have received a lot since we were made aware of Ryan Madson’s impending Tommy John surgery: who would I rather pick, Greg Holland or Sean Marshall? Some of my readers and twitter followers took my advice and picked up Holland when Joakim Soria went down, but saw that Marshall was available and wanted to know who I would rather have. Here is my take on both pitchers.
Holland’s skillset and the likelihood of him being named closer has been well documented here on FanGraphs by both me and Jack Moore. Holland has received three save opportunities and came through with all of them this spring, which is at least somewhat telling of what Kansas City has in the plans for this season. He will most likely close, and he will also most likely be very effective with this opportunity. With a K/BB ratio of 3.89 last season and dominance against both lefties and righties, I have little doubt that Holland has what it takes to be a closer. His track record is slightly disconcerting however, as he only really has performed at this level in his lone Major League season. He was very effective in the minors, but not 1.80 ERA or 2.21 FIP good. He will probably walk more batters this season than he did last year, which is a slight cause for concern going forward. As I stated earlier, Holland definitely has the stuff to close and be very effective, but I don’t expect him to quite be Craig Kimbrel or John Axford right out of the gate.
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Jason Heyward – RF/CF
Heyward has been seen in center field on a few occasions this year, and it is clear that the Braves would rather have Heyward as the backup centerfielder than carry a weak hitting bench bat. He plays top notch defense in right field, so he can likely handle the position in a pinch without any issues. In a league that accounts for outfield positions rather than outfield in general, Heyward could be very beneficial if he eventually does earn enough games to qualify in center. This is not a given, but it something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Eric Hosmer – 1B/OF
Ned Yost put Hosmer in right field for a game just a few days ago, in what could be Yost’s game plan when the Royals play in National League parks. One of the team’s best hitters, Billy Butler, will be forced to sit on the bench in NL parks otherwise, so Hosmer getting some work in the outfield makes a decent amount of sense as he is certainly athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot. It will depend on the eligibility roles in your league, but Hosmer could end up with cheap OF eligibility which could really be beneficial as first base is consistently extremely deep. This, like Heyward’s situation, is not a given but is worth following to see if he does end up getting OF eligibility.
With it officially announced that Joakim Soria will receive Tommy John surgery, we are now focused on who ends up with more saves, Jonathan Broxton or Greg Holland. To me, Holland seems like the better bet to both get and hold onto the job for the length of the season.
For starters, Ned Yost has seen firsthand what Holland can do. He saw him net 24 shutdowns and meltdown just once, even though I doubt he uses those two statistics, he saw Holland’s dominance throughout last season. While Broxton does have the “closer experience,” he also pitched just 12.2 innings last year and recorded a 4.04 ERA the season before. His FIP of 3.01 that season was impressive, but I imagine Yost still values ERA more than any defensive independent pitching stat.
Grant Balfour, the man with the awful baseball name and two consecutive sub 2.50 ERAs has been named the new closer in Oakland. Balfour has had stellar performances in three of the past four years and is finally being rewarded with a ninth inning gig. Oakland made the wise call here baseball wise, as Balfour is the better pitcher than Brian Fuentes and now Fuentes can become more of a situational pitcher, which will in turn make him a more valuable member of their bullpen.
Balfour did run into some good fortune last season, stranding 89% of his runners and recording a BABIP of .232, but he also had the highest HR/FB rate of his career, minimum 30 innings pitched, at 11.0%. Balfour is no guarantee for another sub 2.50 ERA, but I could certainly envision him around the 2.80-3.00 mark that he has averaged over the past four seasons.
As a strict two pitch pitcher who generates above average whiff rates with both pitches, Balfour certainly has the stuff to finish with more than a strikeout per inning pitched. Also helping in Balfour’s resurgence over the past few seasons is his walk rate, which has sat at 7.7% and 8.3% over the past two years compared to his career average of 10.9%. His lower walk rate has come with fewer strikeouts but an improved K/BB ratio, which have been his second and third highest of his career over the past two seasons.
Projection systems have his ERA in a wide range, with Bill James expecting a 2.40 and ZiPS expecting a 3.60 mark. I am a bit more bullish on Balfour than ZiPS is, but take that for what it is worth. Looking at shutdowns and meltdowns, last season Balfour finished with 32 and 6 respectively. That was good for a rate of 5.33 shutdowns per meltdown, which ranked him tenth among qualifying relievers. His consistent performances should allow him to hold down the closer spot for the entirety of the season, barring any odd setbacks or injuries.
So, with Balfour now officially being named closer, where does he rank among the herd? In the consensus reliever rankings, our team had Andrew Bailey, Brandon League, Joe Nathan, and Kyle Farnsworth ranked 16-19 when excluding projected starting pitchers. I would slot Balfour right in between League and Nathan, as League’s performance last year and lower FIP over the past two seasons gives him the slight edge over Balfour in my eyes.
Despite the middle tier ranking, Balfour is a solid closer to add to a roto roster.
If you were wise enough to speculate on Balfour eventually winning the job, then you likely got him at a very nice discount on draft day. If you are drafting in the near future, target Balfour as he is likely still a bit undervalued due to his inexperience as a closer. I do not place much value in a pitcher having closer experience, but in many cases your league mates will. Take advantage of the players in your league by looking at Balfour’s solid numbers over the past few seasons and expect quite a good year in his first attempt as a full time closer.
Delmon Young has a had an up and down career with more downs than ups, but I think he can provide more value to a roto team this year than most initially assume. He is coming off a year in which he played in 124 games and netted just an 88 wRC+, but I still believe he can produce in a potent Tiger lineup.
Delmon is just one year removed from a .298/.333/.493 line in which he hit 21 homers and drove in 112 RBI. That was a stellar fantasy year, as he produced well in many standard categories. While he will always have a very poor walk rate, his bat control is decent and he should not kill your team’s average. In fact, there’s a good chance he improves it, as his career .288 average is rather respectable.
His season last year was poor, but he is in a better situation in Detroit. In his 40 games in Detroit last season, he hit 8 home runs and batted .274. This was a small sample, but it shows that his power really came on late in the season. According to StatCorner, Detroit’s home ballpark has a 108 home run factor for right-handed hitters compared to 95 for Minnesota’s. Comerica Park is pitcher friendly, but right-handers are able to push the ball out of the stadium at an above average rate, which should help Young’s home run total.
Also greatly helping Young this year will be his placement in the lineup. Batting directly behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder should give Young a great opportunity to hit with men on base and drive in runs. For reference, the league average line with men on base last year was .261/.332/.403 compared to .255/.321/.399. There is not a huge uptick in numbers with men on base, but there is a good opportunity for Young to be in that position more frequently than most hitters since two hitters who are expected to produce OBPs near or above .400 hit in front of him.
ZiPS projects a .283 average, 18 homers, and 86 RBI for Young, which is serviceable for a fantasy lineup. Delmon is one of the rare breeds whose fantasy value likely trumps their actual on field value. Delmon has only appeared in 20 games at DH in his career, so his .316/.345/.494 line as a DH does not guarantee success in that position. The 10% discount in production given to pinch hitters is assumed by designated hitters as well, so there is reason to be cautionary in regards to Young’s move to primary DH. It is worthwhile to keep track of how the Tigers use their DH position though, as Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder may end up with more plate appearances at DH than Young as the season advances.
In short, there are plenty of reasons to dislike Young but there are also reasons to expect him to produce well. He is the type of hitter I take a flier on in the later rounds, as he can produce well in four categories for a cheap price. He may bust, but he is in a good situation, in a stadium that should help his home run total, and is still just 26 years old. Your team won’t be devastated if you pass up on Delmon, but you could be missing out on good fantasy value at a very cheap price.