Javy Guerra:

Guerra has done all that he can do to fend off Kenley Jansen, and if he keeps striking out over 10 batters per nine while walking fewer than three he should hold onto the job. Despite Jansen pitching well, he will only get the opportunity to close if Guerra falters. Currently, Guerra is 7-8 in save opportunities and has a sparkling 1.52 FIP in 9.1 innings. He has generated a ton of ground balls, albeit in a short sample size, but he has pitched very well in the early portion of this season. Of course, the Dodgers have had a very easy schedule, so Guerra hasn’t faced the best competition. Even so, it looks like he is gaining more and more control of the ninth inning in Los Angeles.
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When you get good performances from later round draft picks or waiver wire free agents, the temptation to sell and acquire something of value in return is common. Maximizing value is extremely important over the course of a season, and making a trade too early or too late can affect the final outcome of a roto season. There are players to sell high on and players to buy low on, but there are also players to hold onto after solid starts. Here are three I would keep, at least for now, as their value continues to rise.

Michael Cuddyer:

Cuddyer is a solid offensive contributor, and his 2B eligibility is certainly an added bonus. Looking at peripheral numbers and expecting regressions is too obvious at this point, so simply stating that his average isn’t sustainable is not very useful. Instead, focusing on his past in combination with his new home ballpark in negotiations would be wise. He is hitting better than expected to start the year, and his low walk rate is something to monitor, but now would not be the time to sell on Cuddyer. His new ballpark has already helped his power numbers, though he has just two home runs. He already has 11 extra base hits in 15 games and two stolen bases, and I would rather hold onto his production and potentially sell later once his performance stabilizes and his value is increased.

Josh Willingham:

Five home runs and a .328 average has Willingham performing higher than expectations, but his past injury history will likely limit his value in a trade. He has not played in more than 136 games since 2008, so an acquiring owner may not value him properly. The hammer hit 29 home runs while playing in a notorious pitcher friendly park last year, so there is little reason to doubt the home run power in Minnesota will remain stellar. If he has 15 or so home runs by mid-June, that may be a better time to sell high on him to a team looking for power. For now, ride out the late-round draft choice as he builds his value.

Jake Peavy:

I wrote on Peavy a few weeks ago, stating that he was a solid bounce back candidate. Injuries are always a worry with Peavy, so though his production has been better than expected, his history of injuries will concern an owner looking to acquire pitching. His value to your team is likely higher than the value he would receive in a trade, but selling him now after a few good starts could net you a return for what was likely a very small late-round draft pick or waiver investment. Even so, holding onto him and watching him build his value over the next few weeks or months is recommended. The White Sox have played stellar defense this year, allowing the second least amount of balls in play to land for hits, so his low FIP from last season may lead to a low ERA this year.

Up until last night, Tom Wilhelmsen was my highest scorer in ottoneu, a league in which I own Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Robinson Cano, and Dan Haren, to name a few. Mike Minor’s great outing launched him past the Mariner set-up man, but Wilhelmsen’s value through the first two weeks of the season should be noted.

In any holds league, Wilhelmsen is looking like a quality add, if he is even still available. In ottoneu he is especially valuable due to his SP/RP eligibility — he started 12 games in triple-A last year. Since moving to a relief role last year, Wilhelmsen is an entirely different pitcher than he was as a stater. His strikeout rate in the majors of 24% easily trumps that of his triple-A mark last year of 14.7%. This is relatively common with relievers, and it is one reason why you often see set-up men like Wilhelmsen come out of nowhere to become extremely reliable.

Wilhelmsen packs a 95mph four-seam fastball which sets the tone for his curveball, which has been rather effective so far this year. His two-pitch repertoire, along with the occasional change up, fits well in a back end role.

ZiPS does not like Wilhelmsen for the rest of the season, giving him a 1.34 K/BB for the remainder of the year. I don’t think this does him justice, as his sample size as a reliever is too small to judge him accurately in a projection system — ZiPS also has him starting nine games which will not happen.

With three holds already, he looks like he is entrenched in the set-up role and could be next in line for saves if something happened to Brandon League. As mentioned, the sample size for Wilhelmsen is rather small, so picking him up will require at least a bit of speculation that his performance to date is not luck filled. From my vantage point, it looks reliable, and in acquiring him in the FanGraphs ottoneu league I am showing my faith in him. I picked him up for just $1, and he should be owned in all ottoneu leagues. In other holds leagues, he is one of the top guys that should be targeted on the waiver wire, and he could provide value in his rate stats for deeper leagues or in AL-only formats.

In the winter and spring we often hear about how a player wants to steal more bases to add another dimension to the came. Often times this is just talk, but there are always a few players who surprise some with their legs through the first few weeks of the season. Here are three players I have been surprised about in regards to how frequently they have run and how successful they have been so far.

Mat Gamel

In 12 games this season, Gamel has already surpassed his entire stolen base total from last year, when he played 138 games between triple-A and the majors. He is currently 3-0 in stolen bases, and while he has hit decently enough to get consideration in NL only leagues or as a corner infielder, adding the speed dimension to his game could make him substantially more valuable. It is unclear at this point if running will become a regular part of his game, but it is worth monitoring how many times he runs over the next few weeks and worth speculating if you are in a deeper league.

Carlos Beltran

Beltan’s tremendous start to the season has been evident in more places than just at the plate. He has played solid right field defense and has also been effective on the base paths. He has attempted a steal four times and has been successful with three of them. The re-addition of speed to Beltran’s game looks like it could be sustainable as long as he stays healthy, and the Cardinals could run him a lot as he is hitting regularly in the two-spot in the lineup. The days of 25+ steals are likely well past Beltran, but I could see him reaching the upper teens with a healthy season.

Jason Heyward

Heyward has been a fantasy machine so far in 2012, currently ranking 26th overall in Yahoo! leagues. The ranking would be higher with more runs and RBI, but his average, home runs, and steals are all looking good so far. The steals have been especially surprising, as he is already stolen four bases on four attempts. If you look at ESPN.com’s projected player card, which just projects current stats over a 162 game season, Heyward would steal 54 bases. Obviously he will not reach that mark, but he could reach 30 steals if he remains healthy and productive offensively throughout the year. If you took a risk on drafting Heyward after his poor 2011, you are currently getting everything you could have hoped for and more in the early parts of 2012 — especially on the base paths.

There are tons of moving parts in the closer realm right now, with Brain Wilson being the latest reliever to succumb to injury. For the most part, relievers have not struggled too heavily with ineffectiveness. There are none that are currently on the hot seat to the extent that one blown save will have them removed from their role. With that said, there have been a few interesting trends that we have seen over the past few weeks.

Santiago Casilla

Casilla received the first save opportunity since Wilson’s injury, so he is obviously the guy to grab if he is somehow still available in your league. He is being grabbed left and right on ottoneu, as Chad Young pointed out. And Chris Cwik pointed out that he was likely the next in line, so hopefully you listened to Chris and grabbed Casilla before last night. He is a rather solid pitcher, despite having a so-so strikeout-to-walk ratio. He generates ground balls while not allowing home runs, so while he is not an ideal back-end reliever due to his low strikeout-to-walk ratio, he should remain effective enough to hold onto the role. He will not have an extremely long leash, but a few good performances should give him some breathing room.

Bryan Shaw

The Diamondbacks have been in a ton of save situations this season, and they have been forced to rest J.J. Putz during some of those opportunities. In his absence, Brian Shaw has received the chances, recording two saves in seven innings pitched. David Hernandez had pitched two consecutive days before his first opportunity, but in Shaw’s second chance Hernandez had only thrown one time in four days, so it was likely that he was available. Shaw entered in the eighth and finished the game off with 1.1 innings pitched and a strikeout while allowing no base runners. J.J. Putz has had a history with injuries, so if anything happens to Putz, it may be Shaw that gets the first chance at the closer gig. If you are looking to handcuff Putz, Shaw may have sneaked past Hernandez on the closer depth chart.

Juan Cruz

Cruz recorded a save last night for the Pirates. Joel Hanrahan has been considered day-to-day with a hamstring injury that he suffered during his save on Sunday. There is reason to worry about Hanrahan and the injury, but no reason to exactly panic quite yet. Cruz seems to be the next in line, and there is a good chance that Hanrahan gets traded mid-season. If you are looking to hold onto the Pirates saves throughout the season, grab Cruz now to ensure that you have Hanrahan’s handcuff. Things can obviously change before then, and Evan Meek is a candidate to close as well in the future, but for now it looks like the role will belong to Cruz if Hanrahan’s injury becomes more serious or if he eventually gets moved.

With 3 home runs and a .371 average, J.D. Martinez is one of the big pickups in roto over the past week. The question around Martinez is sustainability. Obviously he won’t hit .371 all season, but can he sustain a solid average in combination with respectable power numbers throughout the year?

I think so. I do not quite think we are going to witness a Jose Bautista coming out party in regards to Martinez, but I do think he can surprise and be a valuable player throughout the year. His walk rate throughout the minors was never too great, but he did post high averages and solid home run totals at most levels.

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Aroldis Chapman’s start to the season has been very impressive, and the big performance is a follow up to a big spring. He struck out 18 batters while walking just two in spring as a starter, and as a set up man so far this year he has 10 strikeouts and no walks in five innings pitched.

There is certainly value in speculating on Chapman, even though he is unlikely to get saves due to Sean Marshall’s presence. Marshall is a stellar pitcher, so it is doubtful that he struggles enough to lose his closing job to Chapman. Even as a set up man, Chapman could provide very good value throughout this season, especially in holds leagues like ottoneu.
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Sergio Santos is a reliever I have been touting all winter, and a few bad performances are not going to change that. There are, however, some concerns after his first three outings as a Blue Jay.

His command has been non-existent in the two save attempts and one other appearance he has had this year — walking four batters and striking out just one. His fastball velocity is also down a mile per hour, which is worth noting but likely will not be an issue going forward.

Thankfully, Santos will get a bit of a breather and will be out until Saturday as his child is being born. A bit of time off might help him clear his head and hopefully he will come back strong.

His lack of a choke hold spot on the closer role is at least somewhat disconcerting. If Santos were closing games Blue Jays for the past three years, the poor performance over this small stretch might not be as worrisome. The Blue Jays possess a number of relievers who could reasonably fill the role of closer, so it is not as if Santos has no competition. Francisco Cordero is not necessarily a quality pitcher, but he has closer experience which managers are often attracted to. Jason Frasor has 36 career saves with the Blue Jays, and Casey Janssen is a sturdy reliever. Santos is easily the best option of the bunch if he is on, but these pitchers could all feasibly take over the role if Santos fails.

Instead, this is John Farrell’s first look at him on a regular basis and a slew of bad outings could force Farrell’s hand. Last year, Frank Francisco was removed from the closer role at times due to poor performances. This is just Santos’s fourth year as a pitcher, so it would be understandable for the Blue Jays to closely monitor the situation. If he blows a few more saves upon his return to the team, how could anyone blame the Jays for at least temporarily removing him from the position?

I still have faith in Santos, though. His walk rate will likely never be too impressive, which will lead to the occasional blown save, but his strikeouts should help counter that balance. I will be monitoring his velocity to see if the slight drop continues, and paying close attention to his command is also recommended. Do not lose faith in him just yet, but pay close attention to see if his poor performance is an aberration or a continuing trend.

In his first start as an Oakland Athletic, Tom Milone pitched eight shutout innings and allowed just six baserunners, which should prompt him to become a pretty big waiver wire pickup today. It was not all good for Milone however, as he struck out no batters and walked three along the way.

Many were beating the Milone drum this offseason, I certainly saw him as a sleeper candidate but I was not quite as bullish as some. His numbers at triple-A last season do give reason to believe he will strike out enough batters to be useful in that category, but that has not quite been the case in his six Major League starts to date — he maintains a 3.97 K/9 over those six starts.

Even though his strike out rates have been less than stellar, his impeccable control has allowed him to be rather successful, posting a 2.91 ERA and a 3.62 FIP in the bigs. It is still possible that his strikeout rate never climbs to a respectable rate, as his fastball sits at an average of 87.4 MPH for his career and averaged just 85.4 MPH last night. Even if he maintains a mark around 4.00 K/9 throughout the year, Milone could be in for a Mark Buehrle type year.

That type of production is certainly not top tier in any sense, but it does have a place on roto rosters. In deeper leagues and AL only, Milone becomes even more valuable.

One potential issue is that Milone does not record many ground balls. This could be just a small sample situation, but he netted just a 30.6% in his five starts last season and recorded just nine ground balls yesterday compared to 15 fly balls or line drives. It is an issue worth monitoring, as his low home run allowed rate would likely increase over a bigger sample if his ground ball rate remains so low. To help with that issue is that his home park is extremely pitcher friendly and his team’s outfield defense should be pretty solid.

I do not absolutely love Milone and I am not rushing to pick him up off the waiver wire in every league, but he is a player I think could add some value to rate stats. If you need pitching immediately, he is not a bad target. I would wait a bit longer and see if he can pump his strikeout rate up just a tad and see if he can maintain that low home run rate before I picked him up.

Robin Ventura and Joe Maddon made confusing closer situations a bit more clear this weekend, as both have seemingly ‘named’ temporary closers. Hector Santiago, owner of a nifty screwball, and Fernando Rodney, he of the 7.88 BB/9 rate last year, will apparently be getting the save attempts for their respective teams going forward.

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